The All-Undervalued Team
Week three of the preseason is typically considered “Draft Weekend” in fantasy football and the highpoint of misinformation and overreactions. Every year, draftniks and fantasy experts are hyping their “can’t miss” prospects and lists highlighting players they’re avoiding at all costs. We fall in love with rookies and often convince ourselves a veteran is worthless before his time is actually up. I’m all for selling a player a year too soon as opposed to selling him a year too late, but there are a lot of bargains out there right now. On any given day you can scroll through your Twitter feed and find another reason to dislike a given player or read up on the latest fad like the “Zero Running back Theory,” the “Zero Wide Receiver Theory” or the “Late Round Quarterback Theory.” There isn’t a proven formula for winning every fantasy league other than drafting the best players and that can be achieved many different ways. I am going to put together my starting squad of currently undervalued players, discuss why they’re being avoided and make a case for why you just shouldn’t listen.
Cam Newton, QB CAR
What’s being said: People are shying away from Newton because they say he doesn’t have any receivers to throw to, his offensive line is in shambles and he had ankle surgery this spring.
Why you shouldn’t listen: First off, this group of receivers isn’t any worse than what Cam has played with since entering the NFL. Even though Steve Smith (the franchise’s all-time leading receiver) signed with the Baltimore Ravens and Brandon LaFell has a locker next to Tom Brady in New England, they didn’t leave big shoes to fill when you look at last year’s stats.
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The leading pass catcher was actually tight end Greg Olsen and he’ll be back. The Panthers selected 6’5”, 240 pound Kelvin Benjamin 28th overall in this year’s draft and he has immediately become Cam’s BFF. He has frequently been Newton’s go-to receiver in training camp and even scored a touchdown in the team’s opening game of the preseason. They also signed a pair of reliable possession receivers with solid run blocking ability in Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant to go with second year deep threat Tavarres King.
In addition to the passing game, Cam has shown no ill effects of the off-season ankle surgery and should remain his normal running threat. Cam has yet to finish lower than fourth among fantasy quarterbacks since entering the league and is a strong bet to remain a top five option. His ADP hasn’t fallen too much in start-ups, but I’ve seen him get traded in dynasty/keeper leagues for far lesser talent than his ADP warrants.
Zac Stacy, RB STL
What’s being said: When the Rams drafted Tre Mason out of Auburn, the whispers of Stacy losing carries (and ultimately the starting job) immediately started.
Why you shouldn’t listen: Yes, the Rams drafted Tre Mason. No, he won’t be a threat to Stacy’s starting gig. Stacy is one of the very few volume runners left in the league and the Rams needed a true backup to the bellcow runner. Prior to Mason’s selection, the team only had change of pace runner Benny Cunningham as depth behind Stacy. In 12 games as a rookie, Stacy finished with 973 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground and added 26 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown while only turning the ball over once. Even though he plays in a very tough division, he shouldn’t have any issue improving on his RB20 finish.
Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
What’s being said: Lynch has over 900 carries in the last three regular seasons, he’s 28 years old and Christine Michael is primed for a big role.
Why you shouldn’t listen: While Father Time is definitely coming, Lynch is still the featured runner of this team. He finished 2013 with 4.2 yards per carry, 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Seahawks base everything off of Lynch’s style of play. They allow him to set the tone by hammering defenses run after run and when the safety peaks into the box, Russell Wilson beats them with his arm. If Wilson and Percy Harvin are going to succeed, they’re going to need Lynch to be in “Beast Mode.” He’ll still be the featured back seeing the vast majority of the team’s carries, but Michael will be littered in to keep Lynch fresher for the end of the season. Michael and Robert Turbin won’t turn this into a true committee attack this season, however. Michael is still a year away from fantasy stardom.
Torrey Smith, WR BAL
What’s being said: Torrey Smith is a one trick pony and too boom or bust as just a deep threat and the Ravens’ offense can’t support a reliable fantasy receiver.
Why you shouldn’t listen: Gary. Kubiak. He may have fell short as the head coach of the Houston Texans, but the one thing he knows how to do is coordinate an offense. He force feeds his WR1 targets and finds so many different ways to get them open. It’s true Smith has mostly only been used as a downfield receiver up to this point of his career, but it has been very evident in the preseason it’s all about to change. Smith has run more intermediate routes and attacking defenses from multiple layers. He set career highs in targets (137), receptions (65) and yards (1,128) in 2013 and he has a threat to improve on those numbers in 2014. Anything less than 80 catches in this offense would be a big disappointment.
Golden Tate, WR DET
What’s being said: He’s just another guy. He hasn’t produced at the NFL level and is a better real life football player than a fantasy asset.
Why you shouldn’t listen: People are flat out sleeping on Golden Tate. The only thing holding Tate back the last two years was the style of offense being played in Seattle. He has actually been an ultra efficient receiver with insanely sure hands. In fact, he has caught 66% of his targets over the last two seasons and has improved his receptions and yardage total in each season as a pro. Now he is lining up across from the game’s most dominant pass catcher in Calvin Johnson and has an old school gunslinger willing to allow his receiver to make a play in Matthew Stafford. This really is a perfect match. The Lions haven’t had any luck finding a running mate for Megatron since Titus Young fell out of the league and Ryan Broyles shredded his knee for the second time. The fact Tate is currently being drafted as the last of the WR4s is ludicrous. At just 26 years old, he has the potential to be a mid level WR2 for the next five years.
Greg Jennings, WR MIN
What’s being said: He never should have left Green Bay. He can’t survive as a relevant fantasy receiver without a superstar quarterback. He’s washed up at age 30 and there aren’t enough targets to go around in this run-first offense.
Why you shouldn’t listen: Even though some of the things being said aren’t completely false, they aren’t completely true either. Last year Jennings actually had his most targets (106) since 2010 and his 68 receptions tied his second best season as a pro. For just the second time in his career he failed to achieve at least 14 yards per reception, but you can fairly blame the timid arm of Christian Ponder and the play of Matt Cassel, who was in and out of the lineup all season long.
The Vikings have a new head coach in Mike Zimmer and a new offensive coordinator in the fantasy friendly Norval Turner. Everyone is excited to see what Turner can get out of second year freak Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Rudolph, but they’re completely dismissing Jennings. With Adrian Peterson there to scare opposing defenses and Patterson blowing the lid off of defenses, Jennings will benefit from single coverages he hasn’t seen since the Green Bay days. Jennings will be a serviceable WR3/4 even with Cassel starting under center, but could really pop when Teddy Bridgewater takes over.
Antonio Gates, TE SD
What’s being said: At 34 years old, Gates’ athleticism has deteriorated to the point he’s no longer effective on the field and Ladarius Green will push him into a reserve role.
Why you shouldn’t listen: It’s very true he’s no longer the dominant beast he once was, but it doesn’t mean he’s useless. People tend to think he fell off the map across the board last season, but that wasn’t the case. His 77 receptions and 872 yards were the most he had since 2009. The only statistical regression he actually fell victim to was touchdowns. His four scores were the fewest since his rookie season and just his second with fewer than seven. What was considered by many as a disappointing season was actually a top nine finish. His season was only viewed as a disappointment when compared to his Hall of Fame worthy career.
The threat of Ladarius Green is very real but there is little reason to believe they can’t co-exist this season. The only legitimate threats the Chargers have on the outside are second year player Keenan Allen and aging veteran Malcom Floyd. The team needs as many viable pass catchers as they can field and Gates has the unwavering trust of Philip Rivers. Gates and Green can co-exist without cannibalizing each other’s fantasy season because this team dumped off 133 receptions to their running backs last year. If Ladarius Green breaks out this year, it will be at the expense of the 76 receptions dumped off to Danny Woodhead and the 21 caught by Fozzy Whittaker. Antonio Gates isn’t a top five option at the position any longer, but he deserves to be in the conversation for the top ten for at least one more season. Seeing his touchdown total creep back up to the 7-9 range with around 70 receptions wouldn’t shock me at all.
Some of the players I’ve mentioned here are older vets nearing the end of their careers, but they have a place, too. They can be drafted to start for your team in the later rounds or paired with youngsters you drafted in the earlier to sit and develop on your fantasy squads. The most important detail in any evaluation or opinion is perspective. If you “love” or “hate” someone, what does that mean? You hate them as a WR2 or you love them as WR3? Is that running back you’re staying away from out of the mix as an RB1 but a target at the end of the RB2 tier? We often throw out blanket statements saying to go get someone or it may be time to sell a player, but at what cost? These players are all solid contributors who have encountered obstacles, either last year or this year, but have shown enough to persevere. I hope you’re able to use perspective to identify values in your own draft and realize not every breakout candidate is a guarantee. Sometimes you need to take a look a little deeper and identify why a player’s value has fallen and where it has legitimately fallen to.
It may surprise you.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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