Dynasty Stock Market: ADP Twins

Ryan McDowell Posted On August 22, 2014

jones

Each month as I formulate and study the dynasty data from our six mock drafts, I always notice when two players have the identical (down to the tenth) ADP. I think it was Footballguy Chad Parsons who first referred to these players as ADP Twins. While this may be somewhat of an anomaly, it can also represent a difficult choice we all face in dynasty startup drafts. Clearly the dynasty community (or at least the participants in our mock drafts) view players in this situation as equals. When confronted with a choice between two players who are so closely valued, which do you opt for and how do you decide? Those are just a couple of the questions I’ll attempt to answer as we meet some ADP Twins.

Jamaal Charles, RB KC
Julio Jones, WR ATL
ADP: 6.7

With elite players like Jamaal Charles and Julio Jones as your choice in the first round, it’s hard to go wrong. Both have some concerns entering the 2014 season. Charles is coming off back-to-back seasons with over 300 touches and will turn 28 before the season ends, which some view as the beginning of the end for running backs. Jones missed much of the 2013 season with a broken bone in his foot, the second time he’s dealt with the same injury. Opinions are varied regarding Jones’ future, but he’s proven to be an elite receiver when on the field.

My Pick?

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As you know, I like to build my teams around wide receivers as well as younger players. For me, this is an easy choice and I’m going with Jones over Charles. I do expect Charles to have another big year and he could certainly lead teams to a fantasy title, but a year from now his value will be dropping like the majority of 28-year old running backs and it will be hard to replace the lost value of your first round startup pick.

Andrew Luck, QB IND
Julius Thomas, TE DEN
ADP: 30.7

Here we have a pair of young players who are both ranked among the top of their positions and both are from positions sometimes referred to as “onesies” meaning the majority of leagues require just one starting quarterback and tight end. This makes for an even tougher choice, as the playing field is level.

Many consider the Colts’ Andrew Luck the top overall quarterback in dynasty leagues, including myself. With that said, he’s finished as a low end QB1 in each of the first two seasons. That’s not bad, but it does make me second-guess ranking him ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Meanwhile, Broncos’ tight end Julius Thomas enjoyed a breakout season with Peyton Manning, but expect some regression from the record breaking Denver offense. As long as Demaryius Thomas is around, the tight end will never be the top option; of course few tight ends are for their teams. There is some concern, which is legitimate in my opinion, that the success of Julius Thomas is tied to Manning.

My Pick?

Again, both players are covering a “onesie” position, so once you make this choice, it affects the rest of your draft as you’ll be able to bypass other players from that position. As I mentioned, Luck is my top ranked quarterback and of these two in the middle of the third round, I would opt for him and grab a tight end later.

Jordan Cameron, TE CLE
Michael Crabtree, WR SF
ADP: 40.8

This is an interesting pairing of pass catchers to choose from in the fourth round. Much like Thomas mentioned above, Jordan Cameron posted a breakout season last year alongside receiver Josh Gordon and under tight ends gurus Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski. With both coaches gone and Gordon likely out for the season, Cameron will be in the spotlight for dynasty owners as well as opposing defenses. 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree missed much of the 2013 season and was underwhelming upon his return. While the 49ers are clearly a strong contender, it’s difficult to rely on them for fantasy numbers.

My Pick?

I actually prefer Cameron to Thomas in dynasty leagues, so grabbing the former ten picks later seems like a bargain and that is the choice I’d make. Crabtree has never finished as a WR1, nor has he scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. He’ll turn 27 next month and if he hasn’t proven himself as an elite fantasy option in his first five seasons, I have my doubt it will ever happen.

Reggie Bush, RB DET
Eric Decker, WR NYJ
ADP: 71.8

By the end of the sixth round, most of the players with elite upside are long gone and owners are simply filling out their starting lineup. Eric Decker, the new top receiver for the New York Jets, has finished as a top ten receiver in each of the past two seasons, but that was in Denver with Peyton Manning tossing him the ball. Decker is in for a letdown with Geno Smith as his quarterback and all of the attention of defenders coming his way. In Detroit, Reggie Bush just keeps producing, despite the emergence of Joique Bell as half of the running back by committee. With a game greatly aided by elite speed, it’s pertinent to wonder how much longer Bush will be a fantasy starting level player.

My Pick?

Neither of these are players I am particularly fond of and in the sixth round, I’m likely rolling the dice on a rookie receiver. For the purpose of this exercise though, I have to choose one and that would be Decker. While I do expect a falloff from his Denver production, I think many dynasty players are prematurely writing him off.

Matt Ryan, QB ATL
Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
ADP: 82.5

Here’s an interesting decision to make in the late seventh round, the veteran quarterback who could be your starter for the next five years or an unproven backup running back with a history of off the field issues. The Falcons’ Matt Ryan has four consecutive seasons finishing as a top ten quarterback and while he may never breakthrough with a top three season, he has proven to be a reliable fantasy starter. With Roddy White and Julio Jones lining up on the outside, that won’t change anytime soon. With veteran running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis slowing down, the Bengals knew they must add another back to pair up with the dynamic Giovani Bernard and they found one in the second round of May’s draft in the form of Jeremy Hill, formerly of LSU. Hill is a big powerful back who could see short yardage carries from day one for the Bengals. His arrival has Bernard owners a bit worried and rightly so.

My Pick?

While this may seem a bit crazy, I’m taking a shot on Hill, the Bengals new toy on offense. As I mentioned, Green-Ellis is already an afterthought and Hill will get a shot at significant playing time. While Ryan is proven, there are many other quarterbacks in this same tier that I could find in upcoming rounds.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.