Summer Sleeper: New York Jets

Rob Shandler

jets

With fantasy season right around the corner, we’re continuing our annual series focusing on a few sleepers from all 32 teams in the NFL. You can find all of the Summer Sleeper articles here.

These sleepers all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but all merit a little more talking about here in the Premium Content section. Some of these players are deep dynasty sleepers who could merit a spot on your bench in a deep league, while others are players who may contribute a little faster than the deep prospects, but deserve more attention than they may be getting. By definition, a sleeper could mean something a little different to everyone, but we’re simply doing the best job we can to unearth one player from each team who fits the category in some way, shape or form.

We’ll never insult you with a comprehensive list of “sleepers” which include such such dynasty mainstay names as Toby Gerhart, Christine Michael or Cordarrelle Patterson. You’re all too good for that.

While many of these players will undoubtedly fizzle, there’s more value in looking more closely at these deeper prospects and players. We invite you to keep an open mind and either or re-assess your value on those who may be rostered in your league or consider adding a few of these deeper prospects we focus on this Summer who are free agents in your league – after all, some are destined to pan out, too.

Feel free to add your own comments about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own!

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Geno Smith, QB

It seems rather foolish to even consider one of the most debated players in the largest U.S. media market a fantasy football sleeper. It may seem even more ridiculous when you consider this player plays the most important position in football in arguably the most important city in the nation. I believe the scrutinous criticisms and unparalleled expectations of playing quarterback in New York are what makes Geno Smith the biggest dynasty sleeper on the team and possibly in the entire league. Here’s why.

First of all, though he has only played 16 NFL games, Smith’s name has been kicked around in dynasty circles more than any quarterback since Ryan Leaf. He couldn’t have entered the league at a worse time. Period. Circus freaks like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and even the magical ginger sprite Andy Dalton are waltzing into the spotlight of the NFL and setting the fantasy world ablaze from day one. That was the expectation for Smith in 2013. He failed to meet that unrealistic benchmark with a poor Jets team, and thus he was rapidly categorized by the impatient as another example of Head Coach Rex Ryan’s inability to draft a winning quarterback. Nice try, Rex. Sanchez 2.0.

Secondly, the Jets’ organization did him no favors by bringing in fantasy quarterback demi-god Michael Vick to divide the miniscule camp of Smith supporters. That left about four pro-Smith guys per New York City block. The Vick acquisition was seen by Jets fans and dynasty owners alike as a massive shadow of doubt upon Smith and brought more uncertainty as to whether he would even get an opportunity to atone for his numerous rookie mistakes. Surely the proven veteran Vick would be better than the guy with the 66.5 passer rating and 21 interceptions.

These factors have all led to Geno Smith, the veteran, being vastly underrated in the dynasty community. He is currently getting over 80 percent of the first-team reps in camp, so there goes the Vick thing. He also wasn’t really that horrible statistically in 2013, considering he was a second round rookie with a terrible supporting cast at the skill positions.   The whole world has wept together for Sam Bradford’s lack of weapons for four years now. Geno….well, he’s terrible. I don’t get it.

Here’s a peek at the stellar cast of characters Smith had the privilege of working with last year juxtaposed against this year’s anticipated starters.

geno1

It’s not exactly a devastating arsenal they’ve collected there.   Certainly better than what they were working with last year, though. Decker will bring a veteran presence as a savvy route runner trained under the watchful eye of Professor Peyton Manning. Jeremy Kerley will be much more effective as a secondary target out of the slot while rookie Jace Amaro and third year physical freak Stephen Hill are both upside players if they can find some consistency and chemistry with Smith. Yes, I just called Stephen Hill an upside player. The Jets also added free agent running back Chris Johnson to help form a stronger running back committee. Johnson should combine with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell as a fairly serviceable trio that can keep eight men out of the box.

Just so you know, I can hear you all still saying, “yeah…but…Geno Smith stinks.” Let me take a minute to address that. Bear with me. Let’s pretend its 2008 and the era of dominant rookie QBs has yet to arrive. With those tempered expectations, we can accurately measure Smith’s rookie performance against some other players you’ll recognize. Year one values represent a player’s first year as a starter in the league.

Average year two Quarterback Ascension 

geno2
*Indicates the QBs whose Fantasy Points were pro-rated to 16 games

As you can see with just a quick glance at the table above, it’s not like I selected a Murderer’s Row of quarterbacks here. I intentionally selected a hodgepodge of players, some with allegedly middling talent, to satisfy those who think Smith is crappy while showing that ascension to fantasy relevancy is likely for nearly all second-year quarterbacks. Most of the players mentioned improved their statistical performance significantly in their sophomore year, with an increase near 53.84%. This type of an improvement would place Smith as a top-7 quarterback for 2014, thereby fulfilling his offseason goal.

Finally, take a peek at this highlight video from Smith’s rookie season. Sure, all of the bad reads and brutal throws are absent from this clip. The statistics already show us those shortcomings and we are going to accept that they are typical rookie quarterback growing pains. What dynasty owners should be focusing on is the NFL upside, physical ability, and confident play.

Do I think Geno Smith is a top seven quarterback for 2014? Of course I don’t. What I do think is that he is being undervalued as a 23-year-old ascending player who can be had for next to nothing and may actually have a chance of supplanting your current dynasty starter. In 2QB leagues, he might just be a buried treasure.

I’ll leave you with this question: How can we so easily forgive and forget Matthew Stafford’s nightmarish rookie season but bury Smith for his?

Follow Rob on Twitter: @DynastyFO

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rob shandler
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