Dynasty WR Deep Dive: Benchmarks

George Kritikos

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We have some expectations of the average wide receiver, but how do we avoid risk and when do we use common sense? By introducing some benchmarks and creating some high level rules, we can then determine how to make smart dynasty choices. Keep in mind these are correlations that relate strongly to NFL fantasy production so there will be exceptions to each rule. Hopefully, this serves as a guide to improve your success rate when drafting or trading for players.

Rule 1 – College touchdown production is the best stat to measure future fantasy performance

I found this interesting as other metrics such as receiving yards, receptions and college fantasy points did not share the same level of relationship with NFL fantasy performance. If I had to guess why that is, here is what I have come up with – college schemes can inflate receptions and yards, but talent wins out when dealing with scoring opportunities. That may not be true, but it is as good of a theory as any. Below shows rookie performance, which predictably has the strongest relationship (nearly 0.8) to college touchdown production, but the relationship still holds true in the first few seasons as well.

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Again, there are exceptions (looking at you Ashley Lelie with your 19 touchdowns) to this rule but more often than not, you are seeing highly productive rookies (e.g. Larry Fitzgerald) that tend to have value in their first few seasons.

Rule 2 – Early round receivers not only perform higher, but have longevity

As we have seen with other positions, wide receivers drafted earlier tend to perform better, particularly in their rookie season. When you look at the career scoring however, first round players still score at a distinct advantage, but second round receivers score at a similar rate to third round players despite their initial scoring disparity.

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What this does not show, however, is that first round (33%) and second round (24%) make up over half the players that make it to the “Prime” phase of their careers. That number drops to only 12% for third round receivers and 11% for fourth round receivers. This is especially important in dynasty and keeper leagues as we are in the business of acquiring long-term assets, not one year rentals. So when you are debating between that second and third round draft pick, it may be better to play the odds and go with the higher pick.

Rule 3 – When in doubt, go for receivers over 6 feet tall

This was one I didn’t want to believe myself. I am 5’9” in NFL measurement (which really means I’m 5’8”) so I want to root for Tavon Austin and Wes Welker on my fantasy team. Unfortunately, the numbers are saying that while there may be exceptions like Welker and Randall Cobb, more often than not, they will fall short relative to their vertically superior peers. When breaking down height into “Sub 6 ft” and “6 ft+” buckets, we can see that the taller receivers are targeted more, catch more passes for more yards and score more touchdowns.

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Just to backtrack a bit, I chose these buckets because of the last 583 combine wide receivers, only two were measured at exactly six feet tall. This showed me a clear line in the eyes of NFL scouts and participants in terms of favorable height. Now, this again does not mean that every tall receiver is going to outperform smaller guys, but when we have two similarly talented individuals, height can be a good safeguard against risk.

Also, when looking at this data more granularly, do not draft any receiver under 5’9” tall. There is such a drop-off in performance that even the most talented player will have a hard time breaking through. This does not exist at the other end of the spectrum as exceedingly tall players like Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston and Calvin Johnson have shown sustained success.

Rule 4 – It’s not about being faster, it’s about not being slow

Anticipating a 40-time for a wide receiver, waiting to see that one player that everyone goes crazy about with his 4.3 speed. I’ll admit it; I am guilty of this many times over. Enamored with the guy that comes out of nowhere to run some insane time that leads him to shoot up draft boards and into the hearts and minds of analysts everywhere. Well, after finally getting a chance to analyze the numbers, I have two conclusions to draw.

1)     Faster does not equal better

What this means is that the player who runs a 4.3 is not statistically shown to have a better chance at success than the player running a 4.4 40-yard dash. Overall, there is little correlation in the progression of speed relative to fantasy performance. So when drafting, don’t debate the merits of the 4.52 to the 4.45 and think that one will be more successful because of it. However, there is something to look at:

2)     Avoid slow wide receivers

The difference here is that we are talking about a cutoff rather than a sliding scale. Once a wide receiver is timed in the 4.54 range or slower, we see diminishing performance relative to all other receivers. Notice below how close average and fast are; they are targeted similarly with overall close performance numbers. Slow players, meanwhile, show their lack of speed with lower yardage numbers and touchdowns despite similar target and catch rates.

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So while most people understood that tall, fast players are better than slow, short players; hopefully this gives a bit more guidance to how to define each.

Stay tuned for Part 3 where I apply these rules and findings to our favorite rookies and young hopefuls.

Feel free to reach out on Twitter @Rotohack with any questions.

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