Summer Sleeper: AFC North IDPs
So far this summer, the focus on sleepers here at DLF has been on the offensive side of the ball. Eric Olinger and I are going to be rolling out IDP summer sleepers across the conferences over the next few weeks. As always, these sleepers will be of varying levels – some of the stash variety and others who could breakout in 2014.
As we’ve highlighted previously, scheme changes, coaching changes and position changes can significantly alter IDP value and present arbitrage opportunities for owners. Based on those items and training camp thus far, here are some AFC North sleepers:
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Baltimore
Timmy Jernigan, DT
There aren’t a lot of sleepers on this team and since my original choice, Kapron Lewis-Moore went down with a ruptured Achilles tendon, I had to dig a little deeper. My selection of Jernigan might not be applicable in all but deep leagues which require multiple defensive tackles. Jernigan was selected in the second round of this year’s draft with the #48 overall selection after earning second-team All-American honors for the National Champion Florida State Seminoles. His penetrating ability allowed him to rack up 11 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks while constantly facing double teams.
His rookie season will probably be spent in a rotation with Brandon Williams at nose tackle unless the Ravens decide to play him opposite Haloti Ngata at defensive end with the recent injury to Lewis-Moore. Timmy Jernigan is worth a stash because he could collect higher than average tackle numbers for a defensive tackle.
Cincinnati
Margus Hunt, DE
It’s incredibly difficult to miss Hunt when he is on the field. He is a mountain of a man coming in at 6’8” and 290 pounds. As a 27-year old native of Estonia, Hunt is entering his second season as a pro and just his sixth of organized team football. To this point, he has gotten by on pure God-given athleticism. He was the talk of the Combine after turning in a 4.6 second 40-yard dash and benched 225 pounds an astonishing 38 times. His 1.62 second ten-yard split was running back-like.
Now with Michael Johnson having moved on in free agency the team plans on moving Carlos Dunlap to right defensive end and asking Hunt to focus solely on playing left end while competing with Wallace Gilberry and Robert Geathers for the starting gig. Regardless of who takes the game’s initial defensive snap, the Bengals use a rotation on their line so as long as he continues to improve in the pre-season he should see a significant number of snaps this year. Look for Hunt to make a noticeable impact in 2014 while becoming a dynasty asset in 2015 and beyond. He still shouldn’t be drafted higher than a low end DE3 but has the potential to be a steady bye week fill in at least.
Cleveland
Jabaal Sheard, OLB
Before you start yelling at me and telling me Sheard can’t be a sleeper, hear me out. He is a former second round pick, selected 37th overall by the Browns in the 2011 Draft to play defensive end. Unfortunately for him, the Browns switched to a 3-4 defense after his rookie season and he was asked to make the transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker, thus killing his IDP value. His numbers have dropped each year since entering the league seeing his sack totals drop from 8.5 to seven to 5.5 in 2013.
So what’s changed? Mike Pettine. He has the ability to get the maximum out of his players and Sheard was one of the first players he mentioned when discussing the team’s playmakers. He’ll be playing the very IDP-friendly position which allowed Mario Williams to rack up 13 sacks in 2013, a number which probably would have been much higher if he hadn’t suffered a hip injury and really slowed down during the season’s final month.
When we had Nathan Zegura, the Browns’ Sr. Media broadcaster on our podcast a couple weeks ago, he mentioned the huge breakout potential of Sheard and said he would be shocked if he didn’t register his first double digit sack season. The reason I consider Sheard a sleeper is because I think he could finish the year top ten in sacks and flirt with Justin Houston-like numbers.
Pittsburgh
Jarvis Jones, OLB
The Steelers defense isn’t what it once was and now they’re in a full blown rebuilding mode while transitioning to a younger core of players. Gone are James Harrison, Larry Foote, Brett Kiesel and LaMarr Woodley as they’ve been replaced with Jason Worilds, Ryan Shazier, Stephon Tuitt and Jarvis Jones. The team annually had double digit sacks from their outside linebackers and they’ve done their best to get back to their traditional ways.
The team slapped Worilds with the transition tag this offseason while allowing Woodley to walk in free agency. Most importantly, the team got beefier up front in order to keep the linebackers freed up. The team is expecting a lot out of Jones after selecting him #17 overall in the 2013 draft. He was a standout pass rusher for the Georgia Bulldogs, racking up 28 sacks in two seasons before leaving for the NFL. Now he has a legitimate chance to become the next great Steelers linebacker and leapfrog Worilds as the team’s top rusher and sack specialist. In sack heavy leagues, he can safely be drafted as a LB2 but he loses value in tackle heavy leagues, like nearly all 3-4 outside linebackers do.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven - October 24, 2018
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- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
