The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. I hold picks 1.01, 1.03, 1.05 and 1.08 in the upcoming rookie draft for my 12-team, half-PPR league. Conventional wisdom has me drafting Sammy Watkins first and then possibly Carlos Hyde or Bishop Sankey third. I am stacked at receiver (AJ Green, Julio Jones, Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin and Jeremy Maclin) and weaker at running back (CJ Spiller, Montee Ball, Christine Michael and Khiry Robinson). Would I look back with regret for the rest of my fantasy life if I leave Watkins on the board and draft Hyde and Sankey with my first two picks? – Kevin in MD
Though it’s far too early in the game to predict the futures for the Class of 2014, it nevertheless behooves us to make our best educated guesses. This should be built upon a foundation consisting of film study, metrical analysis, actual draft position (the NFL folk aren’t dumb) and of course gut feeling. Rarely if ever, however, do I predicate my rookie response on perceived necessity.
In your case, I agree that your receivers look better than your running backs on paper. With that said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a huge bounce-back from Buffalo ball carrier CJ Spiller, and Montee Ball could very well be the next great Peyton-Manning-made running back. If Khiry Robinson can obtain an appreciable amount of touches in New Orleans, you’ll be in a much better spot than you initially thought.
Therefore I wouldn’t worry about making need-based picks. While you obviously want to field a dynamic starting lineup, there’s more than one way to skin a cat – drafting the more highly valued players will not only increase your talent base, but could also present better return on the trade market. You could even just bypass this conundrum altogether by trading the picks directly for proven talent, an option I like more than an outright forfeiture of value due to need-based drafting.
2. I’m about to do a dynasty league for the first time starting this year. I have the 13th pick in a 16-man non-PPR league with a snake draft. Who should I target as my first two picks? No real RB1 will be available, so should I take a young quarterback like Andrew Luck or Teddy Bridgewater, or go with someone like Sammy Watkins? – Marco in Montreal
In the 13-hole of a large, non-PPR draft it’s easy for me to agree with your assessment that the majority of elite running backs will be gone. Arguably the most important position in these sorts of leagues, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see your opponents try to nab an early edge. To that point, the drop-off between 2013’s non-PPR RB1 (Jamaal Charles) and its RB12 (Ryan Mathews) was a robust 9.1 points, compared to the only 5.5 when looking at the receivers.
[inlinead]So if a solid ball carrier presents himself I’d jump on it. If not, I’d next turn to either Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski if they’re available. Each represents a massive positional upgrade on the field, especially when talking about a deeper league such as your own.
Though quarterbacks gain value in larger formats, I’d steer clear with your first two picks, and would especially advise against selecting a rookie signal caller that early. Simply put, there are no surefire guarantees with rookies, and there are too many talented veterans available. If you can walk out of the first two rounds with an elite tight end and a second tier running back, I’d say you’ve done well.
3. I’m in a 10-team, 2QB league and have picks 1.01, 1.02 and 1.05. My lineup is stacked and ready to contend, except that my QB2 is EJ Manuel. Our league rewards two points every 20 yards passing and five point touchdowns versus two points for 10 yards rushing/receiving. I’ve tried trading the picks for a top-15 quarterback but no one in my league is interested. I was going to use the 1.01 on Sammy Watkins, 1.02 on Johnny Manziel, and hope to snag Teddy Bridgewater at 1.05 but now might grab Manziel and Bridgewater with my first two picks instead. If it were your team, who would you draft with my picks? – Jimmy in MA
At the risk of contradicting my answer to the first question, there are always a few exceptions to the rule. What I mean by this is there will be situations where necessity trumps talent, and 2QB leagues represent exactly that. Given the dramatic paradigm shift of such leagues, if you have an ability to corner the market on signal calling talent, I think you absolutely have to take it.
Given your format I’d have no hesitation taking Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater as your first two picks. They appear to be the two rookies most likely to see action this year, and if nothing else will present sublime trade value. More importantly, you need to improve upon Bills signal caller EJ Manuel as your QB2, especially if you’re a contender right now.
Losing Watkins will hurt, but simple supply and demand dictates at least one of he, Mike Evans or Brandin Cooks will be available to you at pick 1.05. This year’s receiving corps is extremely deep, and is arguably the best position to wait on if you’re force to act outside the box. Given that, I like your tentative plan, and think it both helps your team and advances the overall value of your roster.
4. I currently have the sixth overall pick in my upcoming draft. I need help at running back and I’m assuming Bishop Sankey and Carlos Hyde will be drafted by the guy in front of me, as he has two picks and is known for taking rookie running backs. I planned on taking Eric Ebron with the intentions of trading him for a running back, however, Trent Richardson was released and could be available as well. I have Jimmy Graham already so I don’t need a tight end. Should I draft Richardson and hope he fulfills his potential or take my chances that Ebron could get me a good running back in return? – Matt in MA
I’m not a huge fan of either option, to be honest. Colts running back Trent Richardson, while likely on scholarship for one more season, has yet to show the talent that made him the third overall pick of the 2012 draft. Meanwhile, Detroit tight end Eric Ebron, though talented, could likely be had at a later pick.
If the draft goes as you expect, I’d instead look to draft whoever is available between Cooks and Eagles wide receiver Jordan Matthews. With the two running backs, along with Evans and Watkins, off the board you’ll definitively be able to snag one of the two, and perhaps even have your choice. With the way each has seen a rise in off-season ADP, it wouldn’t shock me to view them as having the most value amongst all your potential choices.
And if your ultimate goal is to trade, those are the guys you should target. Rookie wide receivers tend to increase in value simply by showing flashes of greatness, whereas tight ends routinely remain more stagnant due to the nature of the position. A few months from now you could wind up with a ball carrier even better than what the class of 2014 has to offer.
5. Through trading I have the 1.02 in my PPR/IDP/salary league. Despite the high pick, I’m also still in the running for the title this year.  Since I want to win now, at what point – if any – does Brandin Cooks start moving ahead of Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans?  Those two will certainly need some time to become regular fantasy contributors, but reports have Cooks ready right now. – Adam in VA
It would truthfully never come to that point for me. Rookie receivers very rarely have year-one contributions, and players such as AJ Green, Anquan Boldin and Keenan Allen are the rare exceptions. I’d still take the best player available (for me, it’s Watkins), or try to trade back a spot or two if you want someone else.
6. I was just offered Arian Foster for Mike Evans, or I get Arian Foster for Carlos Hyde. Should I over look Foster’s previous injuries and execute one of these trades, or should I hold on to my newly acquired rookies? – Bryan in the USA
By my count, following a 460-touch 2012 campaign (including playoffs) Arian Foster has accumulated five separate injuries related to either his back or balky hamstring. This culminated in missed time during training camp and the regular season, and Foster is once again sidelined at Houston camp. Though I know there are many who would disagree with such a hardline stance these offers are borderline laughable to me – I think Foster has reached late-career Larry Johnson status and I don’t want him anywhere.
7. I am in a 10-man keeper league where I can keep one player I drafted in the sixth round or lower. I feel my best two options are Russell Wilson and TY Hilton, and I was wondering who you would choose? – Bruce in KS
Russell Wilson certainly proved his chops as a 2013 sophomore, despite a lack of weapons and volume. With that said he was still fantasy’s QB10, which is a low-end starter in your league. Signal callers will be cheap enough as it is and you can always grab a veteran like Tony Romo or Philip Rivers late – the choice is TY Hilton for me.
8. I have the second pick in a 14-man, half-PPR startup. Should I trade my picks in rounds four through seven for the 11th and 18th overall picks, and two late round picks? – Roy in Israel
While it’s certainly tempting to have six picks in the first three rounds, including three of the first 18 picks, I still think I’d pass. By the time the eighth round rolls around you’ll be scrambling to fill out the back-end of your starting lineup, and the depth of your team will surely be compromised should any of your early-round picks get injured. It’s not a bad trade, but I think you’re giving up a bit too much.
9. I am in a 16-team auction/FAAB league and am having trouble nailing down my four keepers. The auction budget is $200, and I am deciding between LeSean McCoy ($73), Matt Forte ($35), Demaryius Thomas ($24), Josh Gordon ($12), Percy Harvin ($4), Nick Foles ($1) and Toby Gerhart ($1). I could also potentially trade Shady for CJ Spiller ($31) or Gio Bernard ($25 – or try to get both as he’s a Philly fan). What do you think? – Marty in NY
Eagles running back LeSean McCoy is arguably fantasy’s top running back asset, but he’ll absolutely kill your depth in a 16-team league at cost. I love the trade for Gio Bernard if you can make it happen and would advise four attempting that. From there I’d keep Demaryius Thomas, Percy Harvin and Toby Gerhart. This should give you a fantastic core to build around, and still leave you with a robust $146 left to try and buy back some of the guys you lost.
10. I own Trent Richardson for $25 (cap is $200) in the last year of his contract. After the 2014 season, I have the option to extend him for $5 per year (extend to 2016 means he has a $35 salary). An owner just offered me his 2015, 2016, and 2017 first round rookie picks for T-Rich. All first round rookie picks have a salary of $5. I am in rebuild mode, so am I over thinking this one? – Joe in MI
In a word, yes. Richardson is taking up an eighth of your salary and has done precious little to justify it. Not only would you be losing the burden of this likely sunken cost, you’ll be rewarded with three cost-effective, highly touted future rookies. Run, don’t walk!
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