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The DLF Mailbag

khiry_robinson

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions.

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!

1. The scoring in my 12-team, non-PPR league is touchdown heavy with six points per touchdown and one point per 25 combined rushing/receiving yards. My running backs let me down last year, as I have Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris and CJ Spiller. I made a mental note of Khiry Robinson while watching the playoffs last season. My question is, will Robinson be a RB1 or RB2 in this format? Would it be worth it for me to upgrade another position by trading one of my running backs and grabbing Wilson? – Chris in OH

It’s my opinion that as long as head coach Sean Payton is leading the charge in New Orleans, we should pay close attention to the team’s running back situation. To wit, since Payton began his stint in the Big Easy in 2006, his teams have supported at least two players posting RB3-stats or better (standard PPR scoring) in a whopping seven of eight years. Extrapolating upon that point, consider the table below:

mailbaggraph0110 of the 16 ball carriers above functioned as PPR RB2’s (62.5%), with another four providing RB3-caliber statistics (25%). On the aggregate, and excluding a poor 2010 campaign, the average Saint RB1 during Payton’s tenure was the overall RB13.4, while the average RB2 was the RB26.1. Getting back to the original point, it behooves us all to know just where former UDFA Khiry Robinson stands in the pecking order.

With the departure of Sproles to Philly, the New Orleans running back situation has become a three-headed monster of Thomas, Robinson and perpetual disappointment Mark Ingram. Thomas seems a lock to get the passing down work, at a minimum, but the battle for the two-down “hammer back” role remains unresolved.

Personally, I’d put my money on Robinson. With Thomas out during the Saints’ conference semifinal matchup with the Seahawks, it was Robinson who led the team in touches, while also receiving the critical goal-line work. Ingram will be involved, sure, but he’s had plenty of chances over the past three years with little to show for it.

Digging deeper, it’s more than likely both Ingram and Thomas will be gone come 2015, leaving just Robinson and fellow UDFA Travaris Cadet. Should that come to fruition it’s easy to see Robinson as the best bet for scoring chances, something that looms large in your league setting. Given that, I’d absolutely look to scoop him up, and think he could have RB2-level prowess sooner than we all might think.

2. In my 12-team PPR league (seven keepers), I traded Jason Witten in the off-season so I now find myself without a tight end. I have a number of early picks (1.01, 1.03, 1.06 and 1.12) in our draft acquired through various other trades, and should be able to trade for or draft my choice of Eric Ebron, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen or Jordan Reed. I’m looking for production this season, as well dynasty value. Is there anyone in particular you’d recommend? I’m leaning towards Ebron, but this would mean missing out on Jordan Matthews or Brandin Cooks. – Phil in New Zealand

While I still view Detroit tight end Eric Ebron as a fine dynasty stash, I also think he’s been unfairly hyped due to his landing spot. The volume-based Lions attack certainly can’t hurt the potential for fantasy greatness, but there are also a lot of mouths to feed between superstar Calvin Johnson, WR2 Golden Tate and the running backs. Coupling with this the immediacy you desire and I’m not sure Ebron should be your target here.

[inlinead]On the other end of the spectrum sits Carolina’s Greg Olsen. At 29 years of age we know what Olsen is – a solid contributor who isn’t likely to approach the position’s upper echelon, but also a guy who won’t ever kill you on a weekly basis. To the latter portion of that statement, Olsen only fell below 7.5 PPR points twice last season, and will more than likely lead the Panthers in targets. He’s a great, and relatively cheap option for a win-now team.

The Vikings’ Kyle Rudolph falls somewhere in the middle here, as he’s approaching his fourth year in the league but has yet to truly prove his fantasy prowess. The addition of tight end guru Norv Turner certainly has the dynasty world excited for a Jordan Cameron-esque breakout, although Rudolph isn’t nearly the athlete Cameron is (Cameron led the tight ends in seven events at the 2011 NFL Combine). I like Rudolph more as a speculative stash, but wouldn’t be comfortable relying upon him just yet.

That leaves us with the Redskins’ Jordan Reed. If it weren’t for his concussions, Reed would be the runaway choice here. His dynamic traits were on full display last season, and if he stayed healthy it’s likely he would’ve finished the year as the first rookie PPR TE1 since Rob Gronkowski. So even given the injury concerns, I think Reed should be the choice – he’s young and talented, and can definitively help you both now and for the future. If you can snag him at pick 1.06, I think you’ve done well.

3. I’m trying to decide who to keep between Nick Foles in the 10th round or Josh Gordon in the 11th round. Each year we keep a player, the cost goes up another round, so If I decide to keep Gordon, he costs me a 10th rounder next year, etc. The quarterback scoring is four points per touchdown, and I expect only four or five quarterbacks to be kept. I know I can let Gordon go and then try to reacquire him through the draft, but he will certainly be scooped up before the 11th round. If I keep him and he plays in 2015 my receivers next year would be exceptional. So do I bite the bullet and keep Gordon? – James in MA

Both others and myself have used the stock market metaphor as it relates to dynasty football – in fact, our own Ryan McDowell has a recurrent series on the Premium side entitled just that! Usually the reference is straightforward, as player valuations will either move up or down depending on the weekly, monthly and even yearly circumstances. In my opinion, Cleveland receiver Josh Gordon is perhaps the perfect embodiment of this figurative descriptor.

If we looked at Gordon’s value it would most likely represent a sine curve (yes, calculus is gross but bear with me here) – in fact, let’s consider the following figure depicting his continually fluctuating value:

mailbaggraph02

Now you might’ve noticed this curve ends on a potentially upward swing. Recent news has suggested Gordon could very well win the appeal to his suspension, resulting in a truncation or total removal of his penalty. While this shouldn’t be viewed as any type of certainty, or even likelihood, it adds a new wrinkle to the ongoing saga.

The worst-case scenario is Gordon misses the season and spirals out of control, never to return. However, reports of his 70 passed drug tests lend at least some credence to his desire to stay on the straight and narrow. So even if it’s only a Lloyd Christmas type of chance, I think the choice has to be Gordon here. His talent is utterly massive, and you can get a quarterback anytime – for the cost of an 11th round selection you have the freedom to gamble a bit.

4. I have been offered Marqise Lee, Greg Jennings, Carlos Hyde, and a first rounder next year (probably around 1.07-1.08) for LeSean McCoy. I am in full rebuild mode and won’t compete for a few seasons, so I would try to move Jennings for another pick or young receiver. What do you think? – Sean in CO

On the surface, a deal that essentially amounts to three first round picks plus Greg Jennings seems like a fair sum to pay for all-world running back LeSean McCoy. Throwing in the rebuilding nature of your roster and the plot thickens even more. However, even given that I still think I’d pass.

McCoy is one of fantasy’s few game changers, and that doesn’t appear likely to change for at least the new few seasons. The Eagles were one of the league’s run-heaviest teams in 2013 (fourth most attempts and first in total rushing yards), and as of yet we have no real reason to believe that’s going to change. Assuming he keeps his health, McCoy stands primed to once again challenge Jamaal Charles as fantasy’s top ball carrier.

While your take is reasonable, Carlos Hyde and Marqise Lee represent middle-to-late first round picks, and you expect the 2015 selection to function as the same. Jennings helps the cause somewhat, but on the whole your side of the deal is taking on all of the risk. Either you need to be receiving some combination of top-tier rookies (think Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans or Brandin Cooks) and/or proven younger players a la Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright and the like.

As such I think I’d pass on this one. Rookies are far too inflated at this time of the year, and McCoy’s value is more than likely set to increase once game-action begins and the metaphorical bullets start flying. I think you can do better.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

Eric Hardter
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Ray
7 years ago

I own both RG3 and Nick Foles there is no sense in holding them both when i can get something for them which one should i explore trade options for and what can i expect to get in return in a trade.

Trey
Reply to  Ray
7 years ago

I had this same decision to make in one of my leagues and for me the decision to keep Foles was an easy one. I will always take a pocket passer to a dual threat QB, especially in dynasty. They are more consistent when they play, the get hurt much less often, their value fluctuates far less than most dynasty players and they typically have much longer careers than dual threat QBs. Add in that Foles is in that dynamic offense in a solid organization in Philly and it’s an easy choice for me.

JBFootball
Reply to  Trey
7 years ago

I would go the other way. RG3’s value is down right now so you wouldn’t get the proper return and I doubt Foles will stay on the same pace as last year. They are ranked fairly close to each other so I would sell the one with the most value right now. Ideally I would think you should wait until the season and let sell one when they go on a hot streak or another qb gets injured.

Ray
Reply to  JBFootball
7 years ago

that is actually what i was planning but i also had the thought of getting rookie picks in the deal, my league didn’t draft yet unlike a lot of other leagues. i need RBs and i would like to take Bishop Sankey, i traded away my 1st rounder so will not likely get anyone that will make a big impact this year and the RB class is not very deep to begin with.

Jim
Reply to  Ray
7 years ago

Gruden is not going to do RG3 any favors in the rushing department. He’s going to get rushing stats closer to Rodgers or Smith not Cam or even Russell. I wouldn’t be surprised if Foles is within 100 yards rushing at seasons end, he was on pace for 300+ last year.

David
Reply to  Ray
7 years ago

I know I’m in the minority. RG III is clearly the better talent, by a wide margin. Trade Foles now, at his peak. This Foles love reminds me so much of the “Eli is elite” mantra from 2 years ago. Did anyone watch the first Dallas game? How about D’s adjusting to the Philly O or is Kelly just that much smarter than the rest of the NFL?

jay
7 years ago

12 team ppr – one keeper to enter the season. Jordan Cameron for a 7th round pick or Percy Harvin for a 10th round pick?

Ray
Reply to  jay
7 years ago

Jordan for 7 because the TE position is thin where the WR position is loaded. plus harvin is injury prone where cameron is not.

Pinky OR the Brain?
7 years ago

Giving Christy Mike for Michael Floyd and next years 1st round pick likely 9-12?

Rebuilding and weak everywhere.

Start 1 QB 2 RB, 3 WR 1 TE. 1/2 ppr 6 for all TDs.

David
Reply to  Pinky OR the Brain?
7 years ago

Me likey. ChrisMike is still unproven. It is not like he has a spotless character record either – he comes with some behavior baggage as well. Floyd is a budding superstar and even pick 1.09 next year could be pretty good.

cdogg
7 years ago

Quick little question. In a 14 team PPR league, established two days ago. Does anyone think Justin Blackmon will ever make it back on to the field? He is out there on the waiver wire and I’m tempted to grab him.

Ray
Reply to  cdogg
7 years ago

take him while you can if he doesn’t play again oh well u messed up and the chances are that the guy that u dropped for him didn’t light up the world. but if he does he is a top wr and will carry your team.

cdogg
Reply to  Ray
7 years ago

Makes sense. I also drafted Josh Gordon, so I’m hoping both can screw theirs heads on a little tighter. Killer WR core.

Chris in Chuck
7 years ago

How much has Andre Williams’ (RB – NYG) stock improved in the last week? Where should he be ranked heading into late-summer dynasty rookie drafts?

Thanks in advance.

JBFootball
7 years ago

I’ve been offered McCoy for Spiller and Josh Gordon, pending the suspension is eradicated or reduced to 6 games or less. Is this a good deal or would I be selling Gordon short if he doesn’t have to miss many games, if any?

cdogg
Reply to  JBFootball
7 years ago

I don’t know man, that is a gamble, but even if Gordon gets his sentence reduced who is to say something else won’t happen down the line? McCoy is a special talent, it would be hard to say no to that. What kind of WRs do you have other than Gordon?

David
Reply to  JBFootball
7 years ago

Do it immediately and do not look back. This is not even close.

demystifier
Reply to  JBFootball
7 years ago

I’d take it in a heartbeat…

JBFootball
Reply to  JBFootball
7 years ago

Would you do the same trade just with Eddie Lacy instead of McCoy? My other starting rbs are Gio and Ball so adding Lacy would give me a big hold of the young rb talent. I also have Green, Jeffery and Keenan Allen as my top 3 wr and I would like to part with Gordon before I’m stuck holding the rights to a permanently suspended player.

David
Reply to  JBFootball
7 years ago

Lacy instead of McCoy makes the trade a lot tougher to make. I personally would hold out for more than Lacy.

cdogg
Reply to  JBFootball
7 years ago

Reports say Josh Gordon may get his suspension reduced to 8 games. Whether this is true or not, I can’t say. I guess you’d have to weigh Gordon’s risk with the reward of Lacy. You are also giving up Spiller, who could have a bounce back year and is still young. The second trade option is a lot tougher, and I think it’s ultimately up to you to pull the trigger. Good luck! Either way you have quite the solid team there.

Jrw1405
7 years ago

Great read as always. New subscriber, and I wanted to pick some of the other readers brains. I’ve got a trade proposal where I would be sending Jamaal Charles for Josh Gordon and Monty Ball. Standard 12 team dynasty scoring with unlimited keepers. My team is weak at wr but strong at rb. Plus I have two qbs. I need to get rid of one, but I’m being offered crumbs for them.
My team:
Qb: RG3 and kaepernick
Rb: Charles, Foster, Stacy, and Tate
Wr: garçon, Hopkins, and Amendola
Te: Gates
His Team:
Qb: Romo
Rb: Ball, Ridley, Bell, Ingram, and Thomas
Wr: Gordon, Calvin Johnson, Nicks
Te: Gronc
P.S: same player who is trying to trade with me also traded Julio for Ridley last year. Should I ask for Gronc also and throw in a Qb or just take it. If I do throw one in which one?

Casey McGrath
7 years ago

I want to offer Julian Thomas for Ladarius Green and a rookie draft pick for next year. Should I put it out there?

mcgrath730
Reply to  Casey McGrath
7 years ago

Julius* ugh.

Dylan
7 years ago

I’m on the clock in a Devy draft- 12 team dynasty PPR

I’m deepest at WR with Jordy, Evans, Hopkins, DeSean Jax, Hilton, Randle and R Cooper- not quit was much at RB with Lynch, F Jackson, Vereen, Khiry Robinson, Helu, Starks, Bradshaw. QBs are Rodgers, Wilson and Flacco

Best available are Treadwell, North, Gordon, Henry, and Mariota.

Which would you grab?

D

JBFootball
Reply to  Dylan
7 years ago

If that is Melvin Gordon still there you have to go him. He could be the first rb taken next year, or at least the second behind Gurley.

And if you haven’t read the article on this site about Tyler Boyd, I would check that out for the following round. I drank the kool-aid and dropped North for him. Tape doesn’t lie.

scott steelers
7 years ago

Trying to pick 4 out of these 6 possible keepers in a Half Ppr league with 2 rb, 2wr and a flex. Cruz 8th, morris 9th, Crabtree 11th, stacy 11th, allen 11th, Julius Thomas 11th. I also have 1st pick. Forte and Calvin available. Was probably going Forte but depends on who i keep too. Whatcha think?? Thanks!

demystifier
Reply to  scott steelers
7 years ago

Cruz, Morris, Stacy, Allen, as it looks like TE can only play in the flex in your league (if that is correct, I’d much rather keep 2 WRs).

No matter who you keep, I’d select Megatron.

Shawn
7 years ago

I was offered Toby Gerhardt, Colby Fleener(I would drop), a 1st, & a 2nd for Matt Forte, LaDarius Green, a 4th, & a 5th. I told him if it was Eiffert instead of Green I’d say yes but he won’t budge. Thoughts?

I feel like it is a step down from Forte for Gerhardt but I get those extra picks.

demystifier
Reply to  Shawn
7 years ago

It is a huge step down from Forte to Gerhardt, imo. Even at Forte’s age, he has the potential of elite production in his offense. Combine this with the fact that you are downgrading TE too, and I’m not liking this too much

Which 1st and 2nd round picks are it? That makes quite a difference here, imo…though I’m on the ‘no’ side of the fence at the moment. Even if you are in a serious rebuild, I’d try to get a little more than Gerhardt and a few pick upgrades.

Jimmy
7 years ago

Hi Eric!

I’m in a 10 team 2QB league and have picks 1.01, 1.02, and 1.05. My list is stacked and ready to contend, except that my QB2 is EJ Manuel with no other starters. Our league rewards 2 points every 20 yards passing and 5 point TD’s vs 2 points for 10 yards rushing/rec. Basically, QB’s run this league. I’ve tried trading the picks for a top 15 QB but no one in my league is interested so it looks like I’m going to use the picks myself. The guy at 1.03 is going QB, most likely the highest drafted on the board, the guy at 1.04 will be going WR or RB. I was going to use the 1.01 on Sammy, 1.02 on Johnny, and hope to snag Teddy at 1.05 but I’m just not sold on Sammy as a special player. I’ve always thought he was overrated but admit that I’m not an expert scout and could very well be wrong about him. I’m thinking of shifting gears and going Teddy and Johnny at 1 and 2 and taking BPA at 5 which would most likely be Evans. I also really like Hyde and can see him bringing Eddie Lacy type value to the table this time next year. If it were your team, who would you draft with my picks? Thanks in advance!

Jimmy in MA

Start 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE

A Rodgers, EJ Manuel, Mallett, Keenum
Charles, Lacy, Ellington, Christine Michael, Knile Davis
Julio, Cobb, Crabtree, Patterson, Sanders, Cooper, Marlon Brown
Jimmy Graham, Pitta

Jeffrey Perry
7 years ago

I think that Bridgewater moves up if he wins the starting QB job in Minnesota.

JAKE
7 years ago

Hey my league has our rookie draft coming up. I know late for dynasty leagues but oh well. I have 3 first round picks 5,6, and 8 in a ten team league and don’t pick again till 22 and 26. I have read alot and looked around for months. I seem to be a bigger Moncrief fan than most. He has clear rout to starting next year with one of the best young qbs in football Nicks on a one year deal and Waynes age plus sounds like he is having a better camp then Rodgers. He seems athletically gifted enough to be a number one wr in nfl. Why is he not rated over other wrs. Am I being crazy considering him over other wrs. I like his qb better than both jacksonville kids. Adams will have to share with Cobb and Nelson. Latimer may have to wait till after payton retires before getting his shot. I am strong at Te with VD Reed and L.Green so not considering ebron. My top two qbs are Brees and Keapernick. Wrs are Fitz hopkins Hunter Golden Tate Danny Amandola and Doug Baldwin Cecil Shorts and Harry douglas. Am I crazy to draft Moncrief ? Should I just follow rankings. I have been in playoffs last 3 years and no title. I need help.

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