DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

Karl Safchick

wilson

 

Have you ever heard the expression “no news is good news?” If you recall, exactly one year ago this week brought us one of the worst news weeks all year for fantasy football. Dennis Pitta injured his hip and subsequently missed the majority of the 2013 season. The Philadelphia Eagles placed promising veteran wideout Jeremy Maclin on season ending injured reserve due to his ACL injury. Even Percy Harvin decided to have surgery a year ago this week, which essentially shut him down for the entire 2013 campaign.

A year later, all three seem to be primed for triumphant returns, but who are the 2014 versions of the walking wounded? Some players have already been designated to miss the upcoming season.

I’ll start out with some good news, as I don’t want you to feel as depressed as I do after watching The Leftovers.

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Jordy Nelson, WR GBP

News: The Green Bay Packers and Nelson agree to a four-year, $39 million extension. The extension includes two years of guaranteed money.

Analysis: Nelson has talent possessed by few at the wide receiver position. His consistency and outperformance of ADP are astounding every year. His perceived value as a low end WR1 to low end WR2 is shared by many in the dynasty community. The consensus DLF ranking has Nelson ranked as the WR13, but it seems as if his trade value is lower in some leagues, especially during rookie drafts. Nelson is certainly deserving of a “price check” in your league.

Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN

News: The Minnesota Vikings and Rudolph agree to a five-year, $36.5 million extension, potentially connecting the two through the 2019 season

Analysis: Rudolph experienced an injury shortened season in 2013 after an impressive nine touchdown campaign in his sophomore year. His contract is actually quite impressive since he’s yet to show anything other than brief flashes of ability.

The Vikings’ Offensive Coordinator, Norv Turner, has been known to utilize his tight ends. Just last season, Jordan Cameron had a career year. Expectations of Rudolph’s 2014 season are varied, but some analysts believe he could be a top six player at his position. I’d be less willing to value him as high as some, but he is my TE11. I could certainly see him outperforming his ADP and becoming a more valuable asset in the near future.

Steven Jackson, RB ATL

News: Jackson is expected to miss the remainder of training camp and some of the pre-season. All indications suggest he will be ready week one.

Analysis: Some dynasty owners devalue players with a limited amount of years before retirement and with good reason. You don’t want to be stuck holding the player who retires earlier than expected. Some players have more value as a one year option as others do over a multi year career.

The Atlanta Falcons figure to be a top offense this year and if the plan becomes reality, the backfield duties have tremendous value. Many are jumping on the Devonta Freeman hype train, but he is far from a proven commodity. If Jackson can enter the season healthy, he can provide RB2 numbers to a playoff contending fantasy team.

David Wilson, RB NYG

News: The reports about Wilson’s injury suffered at New York Giants training camp are many. Most currently, an anonymous source within the Giants organization suggests team officials would be surprised if Wilson ever played again. The previous day, Wilson explained he was fine on Twitter. All the while, Head Coach Tom Coughlin, said “I’m just praying that the kid is okay.”

Analysis: The most frightening prospect would be Wilson being injured at an irreversible level and it sounds as if the Giants organization are concerned for him at a very human level.

Our job at DLF is to translate those reports for you. My only reaction to these comments, in relation to Wilson’s value, are negative. There’s very little reason to think he’d be given significant carries, let alone a heavy workload. He wasn’t even particularly effective when healthy. Unfortunately, Wilson should be viewed as a late round consideration and nothing more.

Mike Wallace, WR MIA

News: Wallace tweaked his hamstring in practice this week. His availability for the preseason opener is uncertain.

Analysis: The recent reports of the chemistry between Ryan Tannehill and Wallace have been positive thus far. The hamstring injury could be a minor obstacle, but nothing more. He has an ADP of WR34, but is being ranked by DLF as the WR43. He has upside to greatly outperform his perceived value.

Vick Ballard, RB IND

News: Ballard will miss his second consecutive season after tearing his achilles tendon in practice this week.

Analysis: The Indianapolis Colts are reportedly still interested in retaining Ballard’s services after his second season on injured reserve. Despite my negative opinion of Trent Richardson, you have to imagine Ballard will not be worth a roster spot in all but the deepest of leagues. Ballard was not overly impressive in his rookie year and coming off of two major injuries, the Colts could conceivably move on.

Cecil Shorts, WR JAX

News: Shorts will miss multiple weeks with a Grade Two hamstring injury. Shorts also went under the knife for groin surgery already this off-season.

Analysis: Shorts’ hamstring injury could not have come at a worse time, as the Jacksonville Jaguars and Shorts were reportedly close in contract extension talks. The extension could still come, but Shorts has been known to suffer minor injuries, keeping him from a full season. With the Jaguars spending two second round picks on wide receivers, Shorts has to stay involved to keep his role.

Kendall Hunter, RB SF

News: Hunter tore his ACL in practice last week. He will be sidelined for the season.

Analysis: Hunter has always been considered a fantasy football darling, but being a running back on the same team as Frank Gore has not been a statistically valuable position.  The 2014 season was a contract year for Hunter, but he won’t be able to audition for free agency. Early reports indicate the 49ers are still interested in re-signing Hunter, but we’ve seen teams change their mind on average talents before.

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick