Over/Under: Rashad Jennings

Eric Olinger

jennings

As training camps open across the league and the 2014 season inches closer to kick-off, we see debates ranging from teams’ Super Bowl chances to players’ fantasy outlook. From late July all the way up to early September is the sweet spot for fantasy drafts and optimism, both for players and fantasy teams. Nowhere have I seen optimism surrounding one player more than Rashad Jennings of the New York Giants. Instead of sitting down and doing a normal analysis piece, I thought I would dust off my “Over/Under” series from last off-season and let people duke it out in the comments section. If you remember, the comments section for the CJ Spiller and Ryan Mathews articles got pretty interesting last year and I think we’ll see something similar here. Let’s get right to it. I’ll set the line as follows:

Rashad Jennings – 1,000 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving and seven total touchdowns.

So what makes a 29-year old running back such a fascinating asset in fantasy land? From the second Rashad Jennings was signed by the New York Giants as a $10 million free agent on March 11th,  he has been touted as an “all-purpose bellcow.” He has the ability to run inside the tackles, catch passes out of the backfield, pass protect, but most importantly he is extremely protective of the football as indicated by his having only one lost fumble during his entire career. He’s basically the anti-David Wilson and historically the type of back coach Tom Coughlin covets. It reaffirms my belief the Giants really wanted Ahmad Bradshaw to be their guy last off-season if his feet and ankles were healthy enough to invest in long-term. Jennings is coming off a one year stint in Oakland where he set career highs in carries, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving yards.

jennings1

Last year he was signed to back up Raiders starting tailback Darren McFadden. But as it often turns out with McFadden, he spent most of the season nicked up and injured so Jennings played a lot and produced double digit fantasy points in all but two games where McFadden received less than eight carries. This is illustrated in the chart below:

jennings2

He proved he could handle the lead back job after spending his entire career backing up Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville. An opportunity it appeared he let slip through his fingers just one season prior. With MJD going down with injury after holding out leading up to the season, Jennings did very little before injuring his shoulder late in the season. He also spent all of 2011 on injured reserve after hurting his knee in a pre-season game.

The Giants hope they’re getting the 2013 version instead of the snake bitten plodder of yesteryear, but the team has not put all their eggs in one basket. Joining Jennings in the backfield is fourth round rookie Andre Williams from Boston College and third year veteran David Wilson who was recently given a clean bill of health in regards to the scary neck injury he suffered last season. To a lesser extent, Peyton Hillis is still currently on the roster also. So far, everyone from Giants GM Jerry Reese to Head Coach Tom Coughlin has backed Jennings as the featured runner, but this was before they knew Wilson would be cleared for the 2014 season. There is no debate Wilson is the most physically gifted runner on this team, but he’s also the least reliable. Last year was just further validation Coach Coughlin will not allow a running back to see the field if they continue putting the ball on the turf. Early reports on Williams indicate there is a lot of discipline work in the passing game to do before he sees the field.

Further complicating things is the Giants’ transition to new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, the former tight ends and quarterbacks coach of the Green Bay Packers. It has been public knowledge the team wants to implement more of a quick hitting West Coast type of offense with base three wide receiver sets and one tailback. They want to be able to set the run game up with Eli Manning and the passing game and they have the personnel to pull it off after adding Odell Beckham Jr. in the draft to Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. There will be plenty of running lanes for whoever lines up in this backfield. Another thing working in the team’s favor is playing six games versus buttery soft NFC East and AFC South run defenses. It’s not all good news, though – they’ll play all four NFC West teams including a date with the much improved St. Louis Rams in week 16, the fantasy championship.

Even though Jennings only has 387 career carries on his legs, I just don’t believe he is going to be the player people are talking him up to be. Even though he’s an asset in the passing game and catches the ball well out of the backfield, he has inexplicably never recorded a receiving touchdown. If he was so impressive last year, why didn’t the Raiders re-sign him over bringing back Darren McFadden (a perennial disappointment) and signing an even older back in Maurice Jones-Drew. I believe Jennings will lead this team in snaps played because he is the team’s most complete back and the one most willing to do what it takes to keep Eli Manning upright, but if he gets 15+ carries a week, I believe his body won’t hold up. I’ll take the under based on the history of aging running backs.

Are you taking the over or under on Rashad Jennings eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving and seven total touchdowns? Let us know in the comments section below.

Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.

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eric olinger
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