Summer Sleeper: Tennessee Titans

Steve Wyremski

summersleeper

With training camps open around the NFL, we’re continuing our annual series focusing on a few sleepers from all 32 teams in the NFL. You can find all of the Summer Sleeper articles here.

These sleepers all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but all merit a little more talking about here in the Premium Content section. Some of these players are deep dynasty sleepers who could merit a spot on your bench in a deep league, while others are players who may contribute a little faster than the deep prospects, but deserve more attention than they may be getting. By definition, a sleeper could mean something a little different to everyone, but we’re simply doing the best job we can to unearth one player from each team who fits the category in some way, shape or form.

We’ll never insult you with a comprehensive list of “sleepers” which include such such dynasty mainstay names as Toby Gerhart, Christine Michael or Cordarrelle Patterson. You’re all too good for that.

While many of these players will undoubtedly fizzle, there’s more value in looking more closely at these deeper prospects and players. We invite you to keep an open mind and either or re-assess your value on those who may be rostered in your league or consider adding a few of these deeper prospects we focus on this Summer who are free agents in your league – after all, some are destined to pan out, too.

Feel free to add your own comments about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own!

Dexter McCluster, RB TEN

A year ago, McCluster was floating on the wire in a majority of leagues. Earlier in his career as a running back, he warranted a roster spot and was serviceable. However, a 2013 position change to receiver virtually trashed his fantasy value as he became a non-factor given mediocre production at the position.

When looking at his career numbers, it’s clear he was a decent bye week or pinch player as a running back given his pass-catching ability and utilization:

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Current Value State

After signing with the Titans this offseason, his classification shifted back to running back and he’s now situated to play an interesting pass-catching role with the Titans.

One of the most encouraging aspects to the McCluster signing is the coaching staff impact. In 2013, the Titans coaching staff created a PPR monster in Danny Woodhead as members of the Chargers’ staff. Despite that, the dynasty community is not recognizing McCluster as someone with the potential to be a meaningful running back option. In fact, he’s currently unranked by many and his ADP is sitting at 215 for July per Ryan McDowell’s mock drafts. He’s being drafted around the likes of Chris Polk, Andre Brown, Kendall Hunter, Donald Brown and Marion Grice – not exactly players locked in for a definitive role in 2014.

Earlier this off-season and prior to the draft, there were rumblings of PPR potential, but the addition of Bishop Sankey in the second round, much like his 2013 position change, has suppressed his value. That makes him a perfect sleeper as, I believe, many are overlooking the fact he’s situated for a very meaningful role with the Titans in 2014.

Bishop Sankey Impact

It’s clear Sankey will assume the starting running back spot for the Titans with Chris Johnson out of the picture. He’s a dual-threat who should see the majority of touches. Like any rookie back, though, he needs to improve in pass protection – that paves the way perfectly for McCluster, who is known to be solid in pass protection and a productive receiver.

So, while Sankey will see a large majority of the snaps as the starting running back, expect McCluster to see ample time in passing situations as the new Titans’ staff utilizes McCluster as a mismatch chess piece and in pass protection much like they did with Woodhead. This is evident in several off-season stories.

Impact of Whisenhunt and Jason Michael, Offensive Coordinator

As noted, as members of the San Diego coaching staff in 2013, Whisenhunt and Michael successfully utilized Woodhead as a matchup nightmare on his way to over 1,000 total yards and roughly 75 receptions – good enough for a top ten running back finish in PPR leagues. That’s led some to suggest this staff will use McCluster much like they did Woodhead in 2013. Others scoff at the notion given the 20-pound difference between the two.

During OTAs, though, Michael confirmed they signed McCluster with the expectation of using him in a very similar manner to Woodhead. Here’s what he had to say:

“We wanted to find a guy who created problems for defenses (with) a guy who has versatility to do some different things, similar to how we used Danny Woodhead in San Diego last year. Dexter has played more in the slot the last couple years in Kansas City, but if you go back to 2011 when he spent a bunch of time in the backfield, we knew he had the ability to run the football as a running back and the versatility to do some different things and move him around and create some matchup problems for defenses.”

This screams arbitrage opportunity for dynasty owners given Woodhead’s 2013 production and McCluster’s 2011 season.

Off-Season Buzz

Upon signing McCluster, Whisenhunt was often asked to compare Woodhead and McCluster. The most significant nugget of information extracted from the conversation is he notes McCluster is “going to get a lot of touches.” He also notes the two are similar in the explosiveness and ability to make plays in space. So, yet again, the staff links both McCluster and Woodhead.

Around OTAs, news again surfaced about McCluster’s utilization. This time from offensive coordinator Jason Michael and McCluster himself. From these clips, it’s clear that he will play both running back and wide receiver with the goal of creating mismatches. Michael admits they’re still trying to determine how they’ll use him specifically, but he was tagged as someone received ‘key opportunities.’

2014 Forecast

So, what does this all mean?

With the staff suggesting a similar role to Woodhead in 2013 and references back to McCluster in 2011, it’s likely that McCluster plays an active role in the passing game out of the backfield, but also receives carries out of the backfield. In other words, a blend of Woodhead in 2013 and McCluster in 2011.

With that, the best case for him in 2014 is easy – Woodhead’s 2013 season and a finish as a top ten running back. While this is likely to be his ceiling, it’s extremely aggressive and unlikely. Of course, the worst case is that he completely flops and is useless, but realistically, his worst case appears to be his 2011 season with the Chiefs.

With that, to put some context around what his 2014 season could look like and define some projections, let’s start with how involved each player was in the 2013 Chargers offense and the 2011 Chiefs offense, respectively:

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While many expect a more productive offense, it’s unclear what the offense will look like with a new staff. Based on that, we’ll take the 2013 average NFL offense as the base to apply the above percentages:

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If we presume McCluster’s range is a blend between Woodhead (2013) and McCluster (2011), his range could be something like the following:

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Without considering touchdowns or the potential uptick in offensive production with the current coaching staff, that’s some mighty production for a player who’s barely ranked, an afterthought in startups and a throw in player in trades.

McCluster has a very good shot at being a RB3 in 2014, but also possesses significant upside given the offensive scheme he’ll play in. He’s the perfect sleeper.

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