Emerald City Sleeper?
As a fantasy analyst, I’m always scouring the latest news and notes regarding the NFL, trying to see several angles on every move or announcement. Often this helps in evaluating player and situational value change in the future. This off-season there was a major departure from Seattle with Golden Tate leaving for Detroit. Tate was Russell Wilson’s top receiver, and more importantly, his safety valve in times of distress. Now, just a few days ago, Sidney Rice announced his retirement from the game at the age of 27. Though Rice didn’t have a spectacular 2013 season by any means, he was still a fairly established receiver who put up 55 fantasy points in eight games played. How do these happenings affect the Seattle offense, and moreover, the receiving corps?
Let’s take a look…
The quick reaction for the fantasy community was to boost Doug Baldwin’s stock, but is he the only receiver who gains value from the loss of two receivers on the depth chart? I don’t think so. In fact, I think the one receiver who should have a substantial amount of stock on the rise is Jermaine Kearse. While everyone is rightfully talking about how solid Baldwin was last season, the lesser publicized Kearse was very effective in the time he was on the field. Here is a table showing the total snap counts of all relevant receivers from 2013. Note: Percy Harvin played 1.9% of Seattle’s offensive snaps, thus he isn’t included in this chart.
Jermaine Kearse played 62.7% of the total snaps that Doug Baldwin played last season, 470 to 749. As can be seen, Kearse was the clear third wide receiver option for Seattle, but what did he do with those limited amount of opportunities?
All of this is important because Tate and Rice are no longer in Seattle to catch a combined 79 balls like last year and the 134 targets they received are going to be dispersed, theoretically. The problem with theory in the NFL is offenses change, rosters rearrange and situations, though similar, aren’t identical to the previous year. Thus, we are left analyzing numbers from a time passed, only looking to the unclear future. The most obvious argument against putting Jermaine Kearse upon the “Sleeper” pedestal is the acquisitions of rookie wide receivers Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood, and a good argument it is. More mouths to feed, fewer points to go around per receiver. Common math will tell you that, but what if one of the new receivers was brought in as insurance for a current starter? I’m looking at you, Percy Harvin. Paul Richardson is a small stature wide receiver, but is dangerous from all points on the field. Sound like anyone else on the Seattle roster?
[inlinead]Norwood has been scouted as a receiver with excellent hands and good size. He’s not exceptional at any one thing, but basically does it all well. The main attribute he possesses is his always reliable catching ability. You may have heard, but Golden Tate has some amazing catching skills of his own. Last season, he had 98 targets and only dropped two passes – two! It’s hard to find someone to replace that exceptional skill set, but Norwood may be Seattle’s rebuttal to the loss of Tate. The way Russell Wilson plays the quarterback position with his mobility, allows for broken coverage because the defenders can’t stay tight on the receivers as Wilson buys time. This plays well into Norwood’s game. He won’t blow by anyone with blazing speed, but he is quick and will catch the ball if Wilson needs to get rid of the ball in a hurry. I’ve seen people suggest Seattle will throw the ball more than last year because they spent two draft picks on receivers. I don’t necessarily buy that. Let me clarify, I do think the run/pass attempts will be closer than the 509/420 split, as it was last season, but they won the Super Bowl on the back of Marshawn Lynch and their running game. Christine Michael is quietly waiting for his chance to be the bell cow and I think it’s likely he gets more work, though it is Lynch’s show for one more year, assuming he doesn’t hold out too long. The only reason I see Seattle throwing the ball substantially more is if an injury occurs in their backfield. In that case, they could pass more, which of course would be fantastic for all receivers involved, but don’t bank on it.
Many will assume the addition of two new receivers will push Jermaine Kearse further down the depth chart and it may, but I don’t think it will, given the specific skills each receiver has. Relatively speaking, Kearse was a touchdown producer last year. He played 61% of the offensive snaps Golden Tate did, yet he scored just one fewer touchdown. He also averaged 17 yards per reception in six of the eleven games in which he had a catch. Kearse posted five receptions of 20+ yards, and two receptions of 40+ yards. Kearse makes his money on the outside and behind the linebackers, leaving the short to intermediate work for the other receivers. As a side note, Kearse had a 7/134/2 stat line in three playoff games in 2013, averaging 19.1 Yards per Reception.
Standing at 6’1” 210 lbs., Jermaine Kearse brings good size to the Seattle offense and it started to show up last season with a few of the deep catches he made over defenders. There has been quite a shakeup in the receiving corps, leaving several pieces to find a niche. Kearse’s 2013 campaign should be enough to allow him the opportunity to play a couple hundred more offensive snaps, if not become a full time starter. He is the ideal WR5 on a dynasty team that needs young upside-type players for depth. Per DLF’s rankings, he is listed as the WR93. Chances are he is a player who can even be found on a 12-team league’s waiver wire. Stash him now, while there is still uncertainty in the Seahawks receiving corps.
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