DFWC ADP – Six Round Review

Editor’s Note:  In 2013, DLF was asked by our friends at FFToolbox.com to provide content and promotion for the Dynasty Football World Championship.  In 2014, the DFWC is stronger than ever and continues to grow, both in number of teams and popularity.  

As you know, FFToolbox is again hosting the Dynasty Football World Championship. With so much on the line, not only in the form of a monetary prize, but just as important to many, ultimate bragging rights. Being able to call yourself a World Champion is a rare accomplishment and those high stakes bring about some important and unique selections as each dynasty draft unfolds.

I wanted to take a look at some of the early average draft position (ADP) data being generated from this year’s DFWC startup drafts. Using this data, we can spot some obvious trends, which might be helpful during other upcoming drafts, even in future seasons.

Here’s a detailed look at the first six rounds and how this year’s drafts are unfolding…

Round 1

There’s plenty to take away from these top 12 players. As you can see, the top tier is again dominated by the wide receiver position, with the “Big Five” of AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas, now being joined by last season’s breakout star, Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery exploded in his second season and his value has skyrocketed from middle round flier to a first round startup pick. We’ve seen examples in the past of wide receivers bolstering their stock with one great season and then falling back to the pack. Remember Eddie Royal? What about Mike Williams? Each of those two were being drafted in the second round of startup drafts after a surprising rookie season, only to see their stock plummet. Hopefully for those using their cornerstone pick on Jeffery, he doesn’t follow that pattern.

Something else that jumps out to me among these top players is the fact that despite season ending injuries, both Jones and Randall Cobb have maintained their value. While Jones ADP dropped slightly from a year ago, Cobb has actually risen up the boards, despite that broken leg last season.

Finally, two sophomore runners have found themselves among the game’s elite as both Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard crack the top 12. (Spoiler Alert: Another sophomore back, Le’Veon Bell, is not far behind.) This time last year, dynasty owners had anointed a pair of second year runners, Trent Richardson and Doug Martin, not only as the top two running backs, but the top two players in dynasty football. We all know how that ended up. Richardson was shipped off to the Colts, where he struggled all season before finally being benched. Martin had his own struggles in Tampa Bay before an injury ended his season. Clearly, neither young running back came close to living up to the lofty draft position. That does not mean this year’s youngster will face the same fate, but it is important to have the perspective that even a first round startup pick is not a sure thing.

Round 2

I already mentioned the struggles of Martin in 2013, but he still finds himself early in the second round. Not only did he disappoint and get injured last year, he now has to deal with added competition for carries in the form of rookie Charles Sims. While Sims won’t challenge Martin for the starting job, he could claim third down touches.

The second round also produces the first rookie off the board in Bills’ wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Historically, the second round is a common spot for the top ranked rookie to be selected, so while this pick carries some risk, the timing was right.

Round 3

Over the past couple of seasons, the late round quarterback strategy has taken off and gained steam, but it’s difficult to bypass signal callers like Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck and we see them drafted here.

Even more interesting and certainly more risky is the selection of Browns’ wide receiver Josh Gordon. Gordon can’t seem to stay out of trouble and is reportedly facing a one-year ban from the league, but after his amazing performance last year, he still warrants consideration as early as the third round.

Round 4

Here in the fourth round, we see a little bit of everything. Teams are still looking for starters and while some opted for the reliable veterans like Larry Fitzgerald, Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch, other owners had their eye on the future, nabbing rookies Bishop Sankey and Brandin Cooks. Both strategies have merit, but I always have trouble selecting a player so early who might only have a year or two left.

Round 5

A pair of running backs has my attention in the fifth round. First, I mentioned one of last season’s highest drafted players, Trent Richardson, and he finally is chosen here in the mid fifth round. It’s a major fall from grace for Richardson, who was consistently a top two pick a season ago, but could never get things going after being traded from the Browns to the Colts early in the regular season. If Richardson can regain his rookie season form, he’ll be back among the top 12 dynasty players.

The final running back chosen is possibly even more intriguing, Seahawks second year runner Christine Michael. As a rookie, Michael really did nothing. In fact, he was often a game-day inactive, playing behind Lynch, as well as Robert Turbin. That hasn’t slowed the hype, which has been fueled by rumors that 2014 could be Lynch’s last season in Seattle. While selecting Michael this early may seem like a major risk, considering he’s going behind five current rookies adds some perspective to the selection.

Round 6

While we have three more rookies hearing their names called in the sixth round, it’s a rookie from last season that piques my interest. In what was viewed as a subpar rookie draft class of 2013, Rams receiver Tavon Austin was the favorite of many and was more times than not chosen as the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts. With his quarterback Sam Bradford going down to injury, Austin failed to live up to the hype. No one would argue this point, but while Austin’s stock has fallen, other second year receivers, such as Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter, are on the rise. That pair also did little to remind their owners why they were first round rookie picks, yet we’ve seemed to overlook those issue, while Austin has tumbled.

Follow Ryan McDowell on Twitter:  @RyanMc23

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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