Keenan Allen: A Word of Caution
The Keenan Allen love is ferocious and rightfully so. He put together a rookie season that rivals some of the top rookie performances in NFL history. Given his 2013 success, he’s often considered a blue-chip dynasty receiver and ranked among the dynasty community accordingly:
- DLF: WR10 (excluding my ranking)
- Footballguys: WR8
- Rotoworld: WR10
- July ADP: WR8
Amazingly, his ranking and draft position is overwhelmingly consistent. Given Allen’s stellar rookie year and the community’s view that he’s the top receiving option in 2014, he’s fixed atop dynasty rankings and considered a cornerstone piece. This type of rookie season success can’t be ignored, but there are a number of reasons why I believe he’s a risk as a WR1 and is currently significantly overrated.
Seen it Before: Rookie Star to Mediocrity
This isn’t the first time a rookie receiver unexpectedly performed at an elite level. It’s a classic story of entering the league in an optimal situation and catching teams off-guard. It’s not until the second season that teams watch a year of film, game plan for the rookie sensation, and slow him down crushing high fantasy expectations.
Here are three notables who suffered that fate:
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Anyone who selected one of these players in a startup draft prior to their respective sophomore seasons will cringe at the sight of these rookie season numbers. At that time, Eddie Royal was on his way to becoming the next Wes Welker and Michael Clayton was supposedly a Terrell Owens or Brandon Marshall type (i.e., perennial top ten receiver). Both soon crashed and burned into mediocrity. Williams has struggled a bit in his own right and has yet to improve on his rookie season performance.
The population of failure consists of three receivers to date, so it’s not a certainty this is Allen’s fate. However, it can’t be dismissed. There are several others like Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson, AJ Green who all put together solid to phenomenal rookie seasons and went on (or continue to construct) very successful NFL careers.
With that said, there’s an interesting theme with Allen and the above receiver set that raises more concern. Consider the following, which lists all rookie receivers since 2000 with more than 900 yards receiving (plus Randy Moss):
Allen’s body mass index (BMI) compares most favorably to Royal, Clayton, and Colston. Not included in the above, it’s also identical to Roy Williams (26.4) who amassed a little over 800 yards receiving as a rookie and subsequently fizzled.
Considering BMI comparable group further, I’ll exclude Colston from a direct comparison given his elite explosion number. I’ll also exclude Royal given his smaller stature. That leaves Clayton as the most comparable player of the three in the table above. Additionally, Roy Williams didn’t have vertical or broad jump numbers, but lumping him in with Allen given the BMI match further escalates the Allen concern as both of these receivers struggled following their rookie seasons. Admittedly, this is a very small sample size and a bit superficial, but it’s something that would freak me as a current or prospective owner.
The knee jerk response I expect from many is dismissal given the small sample size. However, I don’t believe the BMI coupled with the failure is a coincidence. Even if you can’t get past this, there are more rookie season factors that raise questions.
Body Catching
Putting metrics aside, one of the most concerning aspects to Allen’s game is the fact he traps the ball into his body far too often. While he exhibits the ability to get up in the air and snatch the ball in jump ball scenarios, he doesn’t routinely catch the ball with his hands and away from his body – that’s a huge red flag. Watch any of the top NFL receivers and they catch the ball in that textbook manner with their hands away from their body.
As an illustration, in this 2013 highlight video, there are very few instances where Allen uses his hands appropriately.
Rookie Season Success in Context
I believe Allen’s rookie year was very much a function of being at the right place at the right time.
Other than Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead out of the backfield,there was no effective receiver on the Chargers roster in 2013. Vincent Brown was a huge disappointment after many expected a breakout and Malcom Floyd struggled with a neck injury that ultimately pushed him to injured reserve and relegated him to 11 targets on 90 snaps.
To put some numbers behind it, consider the following:
1) As a second receiver behind Gates, Allen was on pace (as a starter) to be one of seven second receivers to account for 20% or more of the team’s total receptions behind Alshon Jeffery, Steve Smith, Vernon Davis, Brian Hartline, Jordan Cameron and Jamaal Charles. That’s a small group.
2) Considering play-by-play logs and corroborating that information with this game-by-game breakdown, according to ProFootballFocus’ rankings, Allen faced a top 20 corner only three times. In two of the three match ups he was locked down (more below in 2014 Defensive Focus).
With Gates commanding much of the defensive attention and consuming double teams, weak cornerback play facilitated much of Allen’s rookie season success. He’s unlikely to face weak corners prospectively given his success as a rookie, which could make a comparable year two difficult.
2014 Defensive Focus
As noted above, Allen matched up against some weak cornerbacks aiding his rookie season success. To put it in context, here is the week-by-week breakdown using ProFootballFocus’ rankings:
In the games against top corners, Allen most notably excelled against Vontae Davis where he posted nine receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. Otherwise, it was against second-rate corners where he accumulated much of his 2013 production according.
Given his rookie season success, coupled with Gates’ aging body, Allen is likely to see more defensive attention with double teams and/or a top cornerback. It’s no certainty that he’ll struggle with the added attention, but it’s difficult to assume his rookie season success will directly (or significantly) correlate with future production given his success came in single coverage against sub-par corners.
Addition of “New” Pass Catching Options
It was mentioned briefly earlier, but other than Gates and Woodhead, Allen was the only other viable receiver in this offense. With the return of Malcom Floyd and the continued reports that Ladarius Green is emerging and will be used more this year, it’s likely that others consume more of the target pie and leave less for Allen. Fewer opportunities logically means lower fantasy production; especially given it’s unlikely a better year is on the horizon considering the success of the Chargers’ passing offense in 2013 (4,500 yards and 32 touchdowns).
Some may not believe Floyd is a threat since he’s an average player, but he possesses nice chemistry with Philip Rivers and commands targets given his associated effectiveness.
Speed
I left this for last as Allen’s speed (particularly his combine 40 time) is talked about ad nauseam. A 4.71 combine run or a junior year workout of 4.53, it doesn’t really matter. His slow straight-line speed in pads is smeared across his scouting reports. While his speed wasn’t a hindrance as a rookie given his solid route running skills, I believe this speed issue will surface in his second year as defenses pay him more attention with more notable cornerbacks and attention.
Conclusion
To most, it’s a foregone conclusion that Allen is a top dynasty receiver. While the conclusion makes sense given his rookie season performance, caution is essential given the above indicators. Whether it’s more defensive attention, his build, his hands or his speed, there are more than enough factors to suggest underachievement in year two.
Relying on Allen as a top receiver is dangerous. I believe owners are making a serious mistake in relaying on him in year two. I don’t think he’ll completely fizzle like Michael Clayton, but view his ceiling closer to a low end WR2 with a more reasonable projection of a premier WR3.
If you don’t agree, that’s certainly fine, but at least think twice and consider his prospects further in the context of the above.
Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski
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