Devy Mock Draft Review

Ryan McDowell Posted On July 17, 2014

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Editor’s Note: This article is a Dynasty Scouts exclusive. Remember, our Dynasty Scouts section focuses on the stars of tomorrow, with a laser focus on High School recruits and College players who look to have the talent to be future assets in dynasty leagues and have value today in devy leagues.

In the coming weeks, I have several devy drafts to look forward to and if you participate in a devy league, you probably do too. Late July and early August seem to be the prime time to hold an annual devy draft, with college football season nearing kickoff.

In preparation for these drafts, I wanted to participate in one or more mock drafts. Our own Scott Fish had organized quite a few devy mocks earlier in the off-season, but the value of these players can change, even during a college off-season. This week, I put together a devy mock filled with a couple of Dynasty Scouts staff writers and some die-hard devy and dynasty players.

Here are the results:

Round One

1.01 Todd Gurley, RB UGA
1.02 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR OKLA
1.03 Laquon Treadwell, WR MISS
1.04 Melvin Gordon, RB WISC
1.05 Thomas Tyner, RB OREG
1.06 Marquez North, WR TENN
1.07 Mike Davis, RB S CAR
1.08 Derrick Henry, RB ALA
1.09 Devin Funchess, WR MICH
1.10 Tyler Boyd, WR PITT
1.11 Amari Cooper, WR ALA
1.12 Leonard Fournette, RB LSU

Best Value of Round One:

[inlinead]I may be a bit biased, since this was my pick, but seeing Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper fall to the end of the round and the 11 pick was a bit surprising. Cooper is currently our sixth ranked devy prospect and his ADP from earlier in the off-season was six as well. While his sophomore season was a bit of a let down, nothing has happened since then to affect his value.

Biggest Risk of Round One:

For me, this is a pretty easy choice, considering the events of the past couple of months. I was surprised to see new Sooners’ wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham selected second overall. Based on talent alone, Green-Beckham would be my top ranked pre-NFL player, but when considering the long list of off-field issues, it’s difficult to value him that highly. There is a time in a devy draft where I’d take a shot on DGB, but the first round, especially the second overall pick, is too rich for me.

Round One Thoughts:

I think the top three is fairly established in most devy drafts and includes Todd Gurley, Laquon Treadwell and Melvin Gordon. Obviously, Green-Beckham crashed that party in this draft and made Gordon a value with the fourth pick. After those top three, there are a variety of ways to go and factors that have to be considered. The second tier is a deep one and could depend on age, position or off-field issues.

The SEC dominates this first round, as you’d probably expect, with seven of the top 12 players hailing from the nation’s top conference. Also of note, half of the players chosen in this initial round are at least a year away from the NFL. Many devy owners use the length of time they have to wait on a player as a tiebreaker, but the talent from the sophomore class, along with some incoming freshmen, is too great to pass up.

Round Two

2.01 Stefon Diggs, WR MARY
2.02 Corey Clement, RB WISC
2.03 Malachi Dupre, WR LSU
2.04 Sammie Coates, WR AUB
2.05 DeVante Parker, WR LOU
2.06 Jaelen Strong, WR ASU
2.07 Jay Ajayi, RB BOI
2.08 Karlos Williams, RB FSU
2.09 Jameis Winston, QB FSU
2.10 Alex Collins, RB ARK
2.11 Duke Johnson, RB MIA
2.12 Josh Malone, WR UT

Best Value of Round Two:

As I mentioned earlier, that second tier is a deep one, and even extends here into the second round. It would not be surprising to see the majority of players drafted in the second round find there way into the late first round of some upcoming devy drafts. One player who I think will routinely find himself moving up the devy draft boards is Florida State running back Karlos Williams. Williams has only moved a few spots from his February ADP of 24, but as the expected bell cow back for the defending national champions, Williams will become a household name for dynasty owners. Don’t be surprised when Williams is a consensus first round dynasty rookie pick as season from now.

Biggest Risk of Round Two:

This is a challenge to find a risky choice among these twelve players. Obviously, any player who is at least a year away from the NFL carries some risk. We’ve seen player who seemed to be sure fire prospects fall off the map, as recently as one of last season’s top devy players, Lache Seastrunk. With that in mind, I’ll peg Louisiana State freshman wide receiver Malachi Dupre as the riskiest pick in this round. Obviously, Dupre has the talent to succeed, but is a minimum of three years from being eligible for the NFL Draft, not to mention the general struggles of LSU wide receivers in the NFL.

Round Two Thoughts:

After looking for some future upside in round one, many owners looked for near immediate impact as eight of the twelve players chosen will be eligible for the 2015 NFL Draft, including last season’s Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston. Following the excitement of the Seminoles’ National Championship run, Winston was a top five devy player. In this mock, he falls out of the top 20, which is a better representation of the devy value of quarterbacks.

The second round gives us a good look at the depth of the running back position, especially among the potential class of 2015. Five of the twelve second round players are running backs, making it 11 of the top 24. Of those 11 running backs, six will likely be available in the next NFL Draft. This will be a change after the recent rookie drafts dominated by wide receivers.

Round Three

3.01 Quinshad Davis, WR UNC
3.02 Nelson Agholor, WR USC
3.03 Marcus Mariota, QB OREG
3.04 Stacy Coley, WR MIA
3.05 Ricky Seals-Jones, WR TXAM
3.06 Byron Marshall, RB OREG
3.07 TJ Yeldon, RB ALA
3.08 Nick Chubb, RB UGA
3.09 OJ Howard, TE ALA
3.10 Christian Hackenberg, QB PSU
3.11 Deontay Greenberry, WR HOU
3.12 Shock Linwood, RB BAY

Best Value of Round Three:

Back in February, during the series of mock drafts I mentioned earlier, Alabama running TJ Yeldon was the fourth player off the board. Now, just five months later, he falls to the mid-third round. That’s a huge tumble and makes Yeldon an excellent value as the thirty-first player off the board. Granted, Yeldon was disappointing down the stretch of his sophomore season last year and was outplayed by his teammate Derrick Henry, but the player we saw as a freshman is still there and Nick Saban’s usage of multiple backs could be a plus as Yeldon prepares for the NFL.

Biggest Risk of Round Three:

This deep in a devy draft, every player carries risk of some kind. The player in this round that I’m most concerned about is Texas A&M wide receiver Ricky Seals-Jones. He entered college a year ago as a much-hyped playmaker, but suffered a knee injury that cut his freshman season short. Adding more concerns to the injury, Seals-Jones was arrested in April on a charge of disorderly conduct after getting into a confrontation at a College Station bar. Seals-Jones has the look of a potential top college wideout, but now must prove that not only is he healthy, but also he can stay out of trouble.

Round Three Thoughts:

We have a little bit of everything in the third round with the second and third quarterbacks coming off the board and the first tight end, OJ Howard, being selected. Like quarterback, tight end is a position you usually don’t want to spend a pick on as it’s a difficult position to predict the future NFL success based on recruiting status or college performance. The quality and depth of the big five conference shines through here as well, with a pair of players from both Alabama and Oregon.

Round Four

4.01 Leonte Carroo, WR RUT
4.02 Jovon Robinson, RB AUB
4.03 Royce Freeman, RB OREG
4.04 Sppedy Noil, WR TXAM
4.05 Jalen Hurd, RB UNC
4.06 Kenny Lawler, WR CAL
4.07 Tevin Coleman, RB IND
4.08 Kasen Williams, WR WASH
4.09 Demorea Stringfellow, WR MISS
4.10 Ermon Lane, WR FSU
4.11 Ben Koyack, TE ND
4.12 Greg Bryant, RB ND

Best Value of Round Four:

I am very intrigued by Indiana running back Tevin Coleman, a big punishing runner who burst onto the scene, running alongside current rookie Stephen Houston. In 2014, Coleman will have the backfield to himself and will have a chance to gain even more steam as he prepares for his NFL career. With quite a few unknowns coming off the board here, Coleman is well worth a fourth round pick, if not higher.

Biggest Risk of Round Four:

Again, each of these players has some degree of risk. The player I’d be avoiding among these dozen is freshman receiver Speedy Noil of the Aggies. Not only does he bring a three year wait before he’s hitting your fantasy lineup, but he doesn’t have the size of a prototypical WR1.

Round Four Thoughts:

Risk, risk and more risk here in the final round. Among the twelve players chosen, five are incoming true freshmen. Another is a junior college transfer and yet another was forced to transfer after being arrested. This late round territory is all about grabbing the guy you believe in, regardless of the risk. The later in a draft, any draft, the easier it is to absorb the risk.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.