Inside the Numbers: 34 Rookie Drafts

Leo Paciga

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I’ve spent some time here amongst our DLF brethren talking about tracking tendencies and looking back at patterns, deciphering data and habits. I’m a huge proponent of consuming previous information, regurgitating numbers and absorbing any clues or statistics that might be left over. With that said, so far this off-season I’ve participated in 34 rookie drafts stretching from May 11th (the day after the NFL Draft) right up through the beginning of July.  Those 34 drafts took place in solid, established 12-team dynasty leagues with relatively standard roster requirements and PPR scoring, which creates a fairly consistent baseline.

These leagues also have a great cross section of knowledgeable owners who aren’t afraid to break from the prescribed “group-think” rankings if they want a certain player.  Even more interesting, some of these leagues are filled with owners who salivate over any and all wide receivers while other leagues are still running back focused even in this day of PPR and recyclable backfields.

Since all 34 drafts are complete and the dust has settled, I thought now would be a great time to take a look back at those drafts, dig into some data, crunch the numbers and identify a few patterns.  I’ve tried to keep my player evaluations to a minimum in this article because we’ve all dissected this rookie class ad nauseam. Basically, I’ve added just a quick summary for each player with a few personal thoughts/comments about the player’s skills, situation and/or draft range.

So, below you’ll find the 25 rookies who finished with the most consistent numbers in relation to draft position.  I’ve listed them in the order they would have been selected based on the player’s ADP (Average Draft Position). In parenthesis I’ve also placed their range – their highest and lowest draft selections.  Again, all the data is based on 12-team leagues, so the first round consists of picks 1–12 and the second round consists of picks 13–24.

1.) Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
ADP 1.1  ( Range 1.01 – 1.02 )

Watkins was the top selection in 29 of the 34 drafts and came off the board at 1.02 in the other five.  His skills and talents have been discussed endlessly since the NFL combine and most fantasy folks agree he has special upside.  The only real question surrounding Sammy is how well the Buffalo coaching staff will incorporate his talent into the offense. Finding ways to optimize players with open field skills in space has been somewhat of a challenge for the Bills. Watkins is a no-brainer at the top of any draft.

2.) Mike Evans, WR TB
ADP 2.1  ( Range 1.01 – 1.05 )

If owners didn’t snag Watkins at the top of the draft, Mike Evans was generally the player of choice at 1.01.  In fact, Evans was the top overall selection in four of the 34 rookie drafts.  Measuring in at 6’5″/231 lbs., dynasty owners love Evans’ size and athleticism – and size. Did I mention size yet?  With the ever growing affinity dynasty owners have with big, talented wide receivers, I certainly can’t fault any owner using the 1.01 on Evans and anything after 1.02 constitutes a charge of felony larceny.

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3.) Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
ADP 4.1  ( Range 1.01 – 1.08 )

Sankey was the first running back selected in 28 of the 34 rookie drafts, making it clearly evident dynasty owners love his situation, agility scores and opportunity in Tennessee.  Personally, I view Sankey as somewhat of a fantasy football oxymoron with promising upside when he’s able to see the play develop and get into space, yet so many question marks when he misreads his blocks and has to improvise and/or create on his own. I’m not as comfortable making Sankey a top five rookie pick like so many of my dynasty counterparts were over the past few months.

4.) Brandin Cooks, WR NO
ADP 4.5  ( Range 1.03 – 1.08 )

When a talented wide receiver lands on a team with a Hall of Fame quarterback, it’s generally considered great news in the fantasy world. Cooks plays larger than his 5’10” fame and should become a favorite target for Drew Brees early on in his rookie season. Cooks makes for tremendous value anywhere after 1.04.

5.) Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
ADP 6.2 ( Range 1.03 – 1.09)

This FF math equation makes me smile: 6’3″ + 215 lbs. x 4.45 speed divided by the square root of dependable hands and a great work ethic. The Eagles are obviously a run first team, but Chip Kelly moonlights as an offensive savant when he’s not playing Head Coach and he’s a master at taking advantage of mismatches. Matthews knows how to sniff out creases and instinctively create space which helps offset any shortcomings he may have generating separation. All in all, I’m higher on Matthews than most and feel he was a value pick anywhere in his range of 1.03 to 1.09.

6.) Eric Ebron, TE DET
ADP 6.4  ( Range 1.03 – 1.11 )

I know most of my dynasty counterparts and fellow owners really like Ebron’s talent and situation – that fact is more than reflected in his draft range across these 34 rookie drafts. I’ve had a tough time being comfortable with his value from the beginning and I’ve yet to put my finger on it and completely identify what my issues are with Ebron. He’s athletic with good size and quickness and he’s an able/willing blocker, but when I watch Ebron on film I come away feeling a little short changed. I generally passed on Ebron early on in lieu of a wide receiver and targeted a tight end later in the draft, but Ebron always found an anxious owner ready to pounce early on in each draft.

7.) Carlos Hyde, RB SF
ADP 6.5  ( Range 1.02 – 1.12 )

The only running back to be drafted ahead of Bishop Sankey in any of the 34 drafts,  Carlos Hyde is a powerful force who runs with the physicality of a freight train and has just enough speed to be deceivingly quick.  Is he truly Frank Gore‘s eventual replacement and long term answer at running back for the 49ers, or is he another swing and miss at that position for this team?  Hyde isn’t a rookie I would use a top seven pick on, but he’s worth a shot around 1.11 or 1.12.

8.) Odell Beckham, Jr., WR NYG
ADP 7.2  ( Range 1.03 – 2.01)

Beckham Jr. or “OBJ” has the unique ability to play the wide receiver position bigger than his size would indicate AND the speed/quickness to stretch the field while still excelling at the finer aspects of the receiving game. Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo now has three solid weapons to work with (Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and OBJ) as he incorporates his new fast-paced, West Coast offense. Some owners were lucky enough to snag Beckham Jr. at the back half of the first round and I think he offered tremendous value anywhere after pick 1.07.

9.) Marqise Lee, WR JAX
ADP 9.9 ( Range 1.03 – 2.04)

Talk about a wide variety of opinions.  Marqise Lee saw a drop in value heading into the draft due to injury concerns and a sub-par 2013 season at USC, but some dynasty owners still targeted Lee pretty aggressively. The healthy 2012 version of Marqise Lee has all the attributes of a #1 receiver at the NFL level and he’s also shown himself to be very solid in his techniques and route running ability.  I felt his draft “sweet spot” was the end of the first round, but more than a few owners jumped in earlier to land Lee.

10.) Davante Adams, WR GB
ADP 11.0  ( Range 1.05 – 2.04 )

Again, another wide receiver in this deep class who some folks love, while others are left seeing shades of mediocrity. Personally, I love Adams’ leaping ability, timing, body control and “high pointing” skills – those talents outweigh any concerns I might have over his lack of long speed or ability to separate at the next level.  Adams’ draft value started out with a lot of early second round action, but his stock really started to rise as the drafts hit the month of June.

11.) Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
ADP 11.5  ( Range 1.07 – 2.04 )

Size and opportunity….opportunity and size – that really sums things up when it comes to Kelvin Benjamin, a huge target with deceptive speed who could step in as the top target in Carolina from day one.  Benjamin is raw and definitely carries some long term risk, but owners loved his value at the bottom of the first round.

12.) Cody Latimer, WR DEN
ADP 12.2  ( Range 1.07 –  2.08 )

One of my personal targets and one of my favorites from this draft class. Cody Latimer possess the size, speed, athleticism and physical demeanor to eventually develop into a true top tier wide receiver. DLF’s own Jeff Haverlack was fortunate enough to land Latimer at 2.08 in one of the drafts covered in this article after turning down an endless barrage of trade offers from yours truly.

13.) Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
ADP 13.5  ( Range 1.11 –  2.08 )

As a dynasty owner, you either love Freeman’s skill set, style and determination or you simply think he’s too small, too inconsistent at breaking tackles and a liability in pass protection. I happen to like Devonta’s deceptive strength, burst and his aptitude for cutting back without sacrificing speed or balance much more than any of the weaknesses in his game. The sticking point for me when it comes to Freeman is the sweet spot for value and his current draft window. I absolutely love taking Freeman in the 2.02 to 2.08 range, but can feel a FF aneurism coming on when I consider him as an option in the first round.

14.) Allen Robinson, WR JAX
ADP 13.7 ( Range 1.07 –  2.12 )

Allen Robinson started out of the gate with a late first round price tag, but then started to see more and more second round activity as the drafts entered June and July.  “ARob” is still a very young player (he turns 21 in August) with a nice combination of size and athleticism. The biggest knock on Robinson’s game is he plays “smaller” than his size and lacks physicality.  I’ve been a buyer all summer because I believe he’ll grow into that next level of physical play as he matures in the pro game.

15.) Tre Mason, RB STL
ADP 14.6 ( Range 1.08 – 2.10 )

Deceptive power, great balance coupled with solid vision and patience as a runner – those are the words best describing Mason’s strengths as a running back. Yes, he’s a little on the small side for a running back with such a penchant for physical contact, but overall there’s a lot to like about this kid from Auburn.  Zac Stacy is obviously a factor, but Mason clearly adds athleticism to the St Louis backfield and Stacy’s bulldozing style.  Once again I love Mason’s value in the mid second, but some owners felt he was worth snatching up in the 1.08 – 1.12 range.

16.) Terrance West, RB CLE
ADP 18.1 ( Range 1.08 – 3.04 )

Talk about a player who gained some serious momentum as we traveled deeper down the yellow brick road and closer to Oz, or in this case, Cleveland.  Terrance West started out with late second round value and finished off the July drafts with a flurry and even a few late first round selections. With Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell sharing backfield duties, anything above 2.08 was simply too rich for me. Many owners, however, see West as the safest running back on a team destined to turn the ground and pound philosophy into a new religion and they drafted accordingly.

17.) Donte Moncrief, WR IND
ADP 18.2 ( Range 2.03 – 3.01 )

Easily my favorite second round target, Moncrief has a unique combination of size, speed and athleticism that offsets any “rawness” factor his game might have. With a talented, young quarterback in Andrew Luck and plenty of long term opportunity, Moncrief could find himself in the perfect situation as long as he tightens up route running and his focus/concentration.

18.) Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
ADP 18.5  (Range 1.08 – 3.02 )

Jeremy Hill is another player in this draft class who found his draft value all over the board. I understand the lure of Hill’s situation – he’s a power back paired with the ever elusive Gio Bernard and that means stepping in as the “chain mover” for an OC ( Hue Jackson ) who wants to reintroduce a physical running game in Cincinnati.  That said, Hill is not a player I would use a late first or early second round pick to acquire regardless of my dynasty team’s needs. Owners who landed Hill in the late second/early third rounds found the right value for this former SEC workhorse.

19.) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE TB
ADP 19.2  ( Range 2.01 –  3.07 )

Another member of the “sea of trees” in Tampa Bay, Seferian Jenkins is a big body tight end with high-end athleticism.  Even more important than just his size, ASJ already knows how to aptly use his massive frame to shield off defenders and routinely box out the opposition. Faster than a locomotive….err…I mean linebacker, stronger than a  defensive back and more than competent as a blocker, ASJ provided solid value in his range of 2.01 to 3.07. More than a few savvy owners passed on Ebron early on only to bounce on ASJ later in the draft.

20.) Ka’Deem Carey, RB CHI
ADP 20.4 ( Range 1.10 – 3.06 )

I’m sorry, but 1.10? Really?  I like Carey’s agility, balance and footwork – he’s able to set up defenders, string multiple cuts together and finish off plays after contact, but he’s not a player I would target in the first round of any rookie draft. Carey ultimately lacks a top gear and there’s nothing “sudden” about his quickness. He could easily be forgotten or replaced in two years and that’s not what I’m looking for from a player in the first 15 picks of a rookie draft.

21.) Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
ADP 20.9 ( Range 2.03 – 3.11 )

Potentially a boom or bust player with good speed, great length and plenty of question marks, Martavis Bryant finds himself in a solid situation on a Pittsburgh team in need of a big receiver with red zone abilities. I believe Bryant has the size and skill set to reward any dynasty owner who drafted this former Clemson wideout. Even though his range was pretty wide during the 34 drafts, I can swallow selecting Bryant anywhere from 2.03 to 3.11 without much indigestion at all.

22.) Johnny Manziel, QB CLE
ADP 21.0 ( Range 1.10 – 3.06 )

Johnny Football is potentially a great “fantasy football” quarterback once Cleveland gets over the Josh Gordon situation and adds some receiving threats. He could, however, just as easily get snapped in half by a defensive tackle or blown away by a strong wind off of Lake Erie. Even still, he could simply implode, getting caught up in a renegade life style that has many fans and onlookers nervous and skeptical about his ability to lead this team long term. Bottom line, Manziel is a tremendous athlete with huge upside and a boatload of risk. The early third round seems like the right spot for this kid, but once again, some owners felt he was a game changing talent they just couldn’t let slip by.

23.) Jace Amaro, TE NYJ
ADP 21.5 ( Range 1.11 – 3.07 )

Amaro needs to retool and refine his game in order to adjust to life at the NFL level, but this kid can catch the rock with a high level of fluidity. I found myself targeting Amaro often at the end of the second round because I love his smoothness through the catch and his situation is perfect for early success even with the offensively challenged New York Jets and questionable play at the quarterback position.

24.) Andre Williams, RB NYG
ADP 24.8 ( Range 2.06 – 3.09 )

Finally a running back whose range is somewhat indicative of his upside. Williams is a workhorse style runner – a “grinder” who can get low and take on would be tacklers aggressively and decisively. I obviously think Williams offers more value in the third round, but with a nose for the end zone and plenty of opportunity in the backfield, I can understand why some owners jumped in the late second.

25.) Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN
ADP 26.1 ( Range 2.09 – 3.12 )

If you want a quarterback from this draft class, Teddy Bridgewater is the stability to offset Manziel’s risk.  Bridgewater’s range of 2.09 to 3.12 is palatable and while his upside may be somewhat limited, he has a solid quarterback mentor in Norv Turner, an elite running back in Adrian Peterson and enough weapons in the passing game to make some solid contributions.

Final thoughts…..

These rookie drafts offered more variety and fluctuation in player value than any I can remember in previous years.  The ranges associated with some of these players were shocking, but they also created many value pockets through all three rounds.  Two players I didn’t mention who really gained momentum as the drafts hit July were running backs Jerick McKinnon (Vikings) and James White (Patriots).  The final numbers didn’t place them in the top 25 players, but if their rapid rise was any indication, they’re both carrying late second round value as we head into the start of training camps.

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me here at DLF or on Twitter @FFHoudini

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leo paciga