LIVE Draft Recap: Fish Bowl 2QB – Rounds 5-10

Jeff Haverlack

fishbowl
In part one of this recap, we were through four rounds of the draft and making good time.  Things have slowed significantly but I’m sure that’s because this group of coaches is decidedly more intelligent, reflective and research-based than those in the other divisions and conferences.  Perhaps that opinion isn’t shared outside of my division however.

In any event, for those of you that haven’t read the first part, I encourage you to do so now.  As a short recap of this league, the details and the scoring:

Our very own Scott Fish started his ‘bowl’ back in 2010 and nothing has polarized the fantasy community quite like it has.  180 Fantasy Analysts and 60 fans comprise the 240 teams that square off annually vying for a little prize money and other handouts from some of the participating sites.  More than anything, however, it’s about pride and good fun.  Bragging rights may also apply.

Here are a few details of the league(s):

  • 240 Teams
  • 4 Conferences
  • 20 Divisions of 12 Teams
  • 22 Round Slow Draft
  • Start:  1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 4 Flex (QB/RB/WR/TE – Only 1 Flex QB) – 11 Total
  • No Kickers or Defenses
  • No Trading
  • Waivers:  $100 Blind Bidding

Scoring is as follows:

  • Passing Touchdown = 4 Points
  • 25 Yards Passing = 1 Point
  • Rushing/Receiving Touchdown  = 6 Points
  • 10 yards Rushing/Receiving = 1 Point
  • Point Per Reception (PPR) = 1 Point
  • Points per Rushing Attempt = .2

And of course, all the leagues are hosted and powered by MyFantasyLeague.com

After four rounds my team looked like this:

1.07  Peyton Manning, QB DEN
2.06  A.J. Green, WR CIN
3.07  Arian Foster, RB HOU
4.06  Russell Wilson, QB SEA

All in all, I’m feeling great about my start.

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My Strategy

Now that we are well into the eleventh round, I feel it’s okay to uncover my strategy as we’ve entered into the “filling out” portion of the draft, where the core is in and each coach now must find those gems to act as mortar and depth.  The core is very important, but these middle rounds can be the keys to a championship.  You can’t fall asleep at this point in the draft or mail it in.

It’s uncomfortable to say the least to target two quarterbacks in the first four rounds, but all my research led me to believe that if I wanted to maximize the competitiveness of my team, two top quarterbacks would be the best route to making the playoffs.  A top running back would have been great but selecting from the seven-hole means that McCoy, Charles and Peterson would be well off the board.  And there was no way I would be selecting Forte’ or Lacy before a top quarterback.  I fully expected Manning to be gone by pick 1.04.  Instead, he fell to me and I scooped him up quickly, fully knowing that I’d have to land a good up-side, bell-cow runner in the next round or two.  Passing on Calvin Johnson was very difficult but I stayed true to what my research had suggested.

My goal through the first four rounds was to emerge with two quarterbacks, a RB1 and a WR1.  A.J. Green falling to me in the second round was too much to pass up.  Arian Foster in the third round was ideal and as long as he stays healthy, I think he’ll compete for a top three runner by year’s end.  Secondarily, while I tend to be a bit of a risk-taker in my drafting, targeting players early that are boom or bust, I took a different approach where  I could in this draft.  With a very solid core in place, I’m seeking minimum risk in the first ten rounds, look for known role players, players that I know have history and ability.  At the very least, they must have a known role that I can be comfortable with.  In most of these following rounds, I think I can say I’ve been successful with the exception of one pick … which I did make for a reason.

By the end of round 10, I expected to have no more than three RBs, fully expecting that I’ll be playing the minimum (2) each week.  I wanted two runners that I have a good level of confidence about that they’ll be “the guy” and then fill-in backs behind them that can provide a spot start as required.  What it comes down to here is that I do not trust running backs any longer.  I’d much rather have top receivers or secondary receivers in good offensive systems than a back in a RBBC role.

Lastly, a key piece of research for me was the Strength of Schedule (SoS).  I’m a strong believer in using this information for redraft leagues, especially for running backs.  For instance, this year I stayed away from Le’Veon Bell who has the third worst schedule from weeks 1-13 and the fourth worst schedule during the fantasy playoffs.  That isn’t to say that I wouldn’t draft Bell, just not on par with his ADP.

Let’s see how the next six rounds played out.

Round Five

5.01  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Michael Floyd, WR ARI
5.02  High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Roddy White, WR ATL
5.03  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
5.04  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT
5.05  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Michael Crabtree, WR SF
5.06  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Shane Vereen, RB NE
5.07  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
5.08  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Reggie Bush, RB DET
5.09  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Zac Stacy, RB STL
5.10  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Vincent Jackson, WR TB
5.11  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Kendall Wright, WR TEN
5.12  Fantasy Ball Blogger: Jesse Ferreira – T.Y. Hilton, WR IND

Biggest Reach

There are a couple of selections here that strike me was a bit “early”, but mostly considering other names still on the board.  In the end, however, most of these selections have been on par with other conferences within the Fish Bowl draft.  The selection of Roethlisberger at 5.04 is a bit early but when you need a quarterback, he’s a stable selection.  Roddy White is early for my taste but he’s clearly been a fifth round selection.  Most of these picks look good.

Biggest Value

I hate to do it again, but I’m taking a neutral stance on the biggest value here.  Based on other drafts, the selection of Fitzgerald at 5.07 is a full round+ later in some cases.  Patterson, too, has gone as early as the third round and as late as the sixth from those that I surveyed.  I like the Vincent Jackson selection but his value is on par with the other divisions and conferences.

Summary

Fitzgerald has long been my favorite player in the NFL.  I’m really pleased to get him here in the fifth and think he represents a great value, especially when combined with my WR1, A.J. Green.  I’m really liking how the team is coming together but I can see that running back is going to be a concern.

Round Six

6.01   Fantasy Ball Blogger:  Jesse Ferreira – Jordan Cameron, TE CHI
6.02  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Ryan Tannehihll, QB MIA
6.03  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Chris Johnson, RB NYJ

6.04  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Ben Tate, RB CLE
6.05  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac –Toby Gerhart, RB JAX
6.06  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Vernon Davis, TE SF
6.07  Fantasy Football Underground:  Andy Dalton, QB CIN
6.08  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Rashad Jennings, RB NYG
6.09  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
6.10  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Ryan Matthews, RB SD
6.11   High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Wes Welker, WR DEN
6.12  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester –Joique Bell, RB DET

Biggest Reach

Bishop Sankey is a big reach here in the sixth, at least in my book.  Welker, too, is a bit early but when Peyton is under center, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.  The choice of an untested rookie as a boom or bust play is the type of selection that I like and I will always give credit to those coaches willing to risk a pick like that.  But that doesn’t mean Sankey is a good value.  By week eight, we’ll likely know how good this pick was.

Biggest Value

I really like the Jordan Cameron selection at the top of the round.  He should be a monster this year.  Only time will tell whether or not the removal of Josh Gordon from the mix will hurt his reception total as defenses will now have a free safety to bracket Jordan if needed or desired.  I had Cameron queued up myself but actually have Vernon Davis ranked a bit higher.  Was happy to get one of them here.

Summary

The Davis pick is a huge round-out selection to bolster my core.  I needed an every-week tight end and with Crabtree back in the lineup, I feel his quality receptions will rise.  He got off to a slow start in 2013 but I think he’ll be a very solid player every week on my squad.  Running back is still going to be a concern but the names left just don’t elicit any excitement for me.

Round Seven

7.01  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – DeSean Jackson, WR WAS
7.02  High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Stevan Ridley, RB NE
7.03  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
7.04  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Torrey Smith, WR BAL
7.05  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Philip Rivers, QB SD
7.06  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Mike Evans, WR TB 
7.07  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Trent Richardson, RB IND
7.08  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Mike Wallace, WR MIA
7.09  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Dennis Pitta, TE BAL
7.10  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Frank Gore, RB SF
7.11  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI
7.12  Fantasy Ball Blogger: Jesse Ferreira -Tavon Austin, WR STL

Biggest Reach

The Stevan Ridley selection is clearly the reach of the round in my book.  The Patriots have too many runners as is and one that is consistently in Bill Belichick’s doghouse is too risky for my taste.  He’s got between-the-tackle ability and upside, but it’s too early for him to come off the board for me.  Tavon Austin is a VERY close number two in this round.  Richardson is a relatively close number three.

Biggest Value

Jeremy Maclin is a great value in the seventh round.   I had him pegged for this round and hoped he would slip to the eighth with him not appearing in stat sheet for 2013.  It was not to be.  And with DeSean Jackson in Washington, Maclin, as long as he’s healthy, should be the recipient of a lot of targets.

Summary

My selection of Trent Richardson is a protection play but one I had to make.  Others had him queued up just behind me so I know I’m not over-valuing him too much, but he’s a risky selection.  There’s no doubting his situation or opportunity but there’s plenty doubting his ability to date.  As the only runner here with a clear cut role, I felt it was a good protection selection for me in the seventh round.  He may be the key to me.  If he becomes a top 15 runner, I’ll be sitting pretty.  If he’s closer to 30, I’ll be losing points every week to my opposition.

Round Eight

8.01   Fantasy Ball Blogger:  Jesse Ferreira – Riley Cooper, WR PHI
8.02  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Steven Jackson, RB ATL
8.03  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Jordan Reed, TE WAS

8.04  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Eric Decker, WR NYJ
8.05  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN
8.06  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Marques Colston, WR NO
8.07  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Zach Ertz, TE PHI
8.08  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Jason Witten, TE DAL
8.09  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Greg Olsen, TE CAR
8.10  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Carson Palmer, QB ARI
8.11   High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Ray Rice, RB BAL
8.12  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Lamar Miller, RB MIA

Biggest Reach

Not a fan of the Riley Cooper selection other than it pushes other players down to me.  That said, Cooper has a big opportunity and without a lot of competition for his targets initially.  But with other receivers on the board and play-making tight ends waiting to be selected, I think the Cooper selection is at least a round too early.

Biggest Value

Eric Decker is a nice play and I would have had a hard time passing on him.  No, he’s no longer receiving targets from Manning but he’s going to get a ton of looks as a Jet and in a PPR league, he should outplay this selection.  He comes with risk but it’s one I would have taken here.

Summary

I have yet to be truly sniped.  That fact is shocking to me.  The Decker pick is as close as it has been but snipes to me are primarily from the pick just before you.  Two picks prior is a minor-snipe I suppose.  I believe that because of my two early quarterback selections, this put me in a very different position and track from the coaches on either side of me.  It’s only now heading into the double-digit rounds where sniping is going to be more likely I would bet.  In any event, my selection of Colston is all about role and managing risk as I had mentioned at the beginning in my “Strategy” section.  I’m not a huge fan of Colston but he’s young enough to still factor and he’s healthy.  In this offense, it’s hard to argue that Colston is a good WR3 for me behind Green and Fitzgerald.

Round Nine

9.01  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Justin Hunter, WR TEN
9.02  High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Danny Woodhead, RB SD
9.03  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Terrance Williams, WR DAL
9.04  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Rueben Randle, WR NYG
9.05  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
9.06  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
9.07  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Bernard Pierce, RB BAL
9.08  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Reggie Wayne, WR IND
9.09  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
9.10  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Cecil Shorts, WR JAX
9.11  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Pierre Thomas, RB NO
9.12  Fantasy Ball Blogger: Jesse Ferreira -Devonta Freeman, RB ATL

Biggest Reach

I don’t really get the Devonta Freeman selection but it fits the profile of this coach’s plays.  If a few of them pan out, he’s going to be tough.  More than likely however, these types of picks aren’t going to produce enough in 2014 to pay dividends. With Steven Jackson aging by the day, other options are available to the Falcons and Freeman will need time to develop.

Biggest Value

I really like the selections of Terrance Williams and, especially, Emmanuel Sanders.  Both represent great upside.  Williams has the best SoS (Strength of Schedule) during the playoff weeks, but the worst schedule in non-playoff weeks and Sanders should be just fine in Manning’s offense.  I really wanted Williams this round.

Summary

My Bernard Pierce selection is a need play.  Figuring that Ray Rice will be suspended for at least four games and very possibly more, the selection of Pierce should guarantee me nearly a half-season starter with the potential to be more than that. If Pierce is productive out of the gate, he can hold off Rice for the season potentially although his touches are certain to drop.  It gives me a needed third starter just in case.  My two main runners both have week 10 byes and hopefully I will have made the playoffs by then.

Round Ten

10.01   Fantasy Ball Blogger:  Jesse Ferreira – Fred Jackson, RB BUF
10.02  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Alex Smith, QB KC
10.03  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Golden Tate, WR DET

10.04  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Maurice Jones-Drew, RB OAK
10.05  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Sam Bradford, QB STL
10.06  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
10.07  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Joe Flacco, QB BAL
10.08  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Darren Sproles, RB PHI
10.09  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – DeAngelo Williams, RB CAR
10.10  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
10.11   High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Heath Miller, TE PIT
10.12  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Dwayne Bowe, WR KC

Biggest Reach

I don’t have problems with any selection here.  Sproles is a bit early as is Alex Smith in on my ranking sheet, but when you have a need, you make the selection needed for your team.

Biggest Value

The Golden Tate pick was my selection just ahead of Hopkins.  I think Tate has an amazing opportunity and starting across from Calvin Johnson should free him up all over the field.  He’ll get his balls either way, but his upside to out-produce this selection makes for a steal in the tenth round.  DeAndre Hopkins, if the other leagues, is also a real steal in the tenth.

Summary

I’m still happy with the selection of DeAndre Hopkins.  He’s not in jeopardy of losing snaps, starts across from Andre Johnson and now has a full year under his belt.  He’ll be fine in a WR4 role for me.

My team now looks like this:

1.07  Peyton Manning, QB DEN
2.06  A.J. Green, WR CIN
3.07  Arian Foster, RB HOU
4.06  Russell Wilson, QB SEA
5.07  Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
6.06  Vernon Davis, TE SF
7.07  Trent Richardson
8.06  Marquis Colston
9.07  Bernard Pierce
10.06  DeAndre Hopkins

Overall, I’m very very pleased with this lineup.  The running back situation is thin for me but I went in with that expectation, knowing that I’d likely only have three or four runners by the tenth round.  My goal all along was to invest in two running backs that I knew could start and then sprinkle in spot-starters in case emergency.  Through this effort, I had hoped I’d be able to get two strong passers and four to five solid receivers.  As it stands, I have four very strong receivers and perhaps the best quarterback duo. It’s a bonus to me that both quarterbacks have the same bye week.  I’ve long believed that it’s a solid strategy to have one really bad bye week as opposed to spreading out the bye weeks such that your missing a key player weekly for a long stretch.

My initial strategy of taking two quarterbacks in the first four rounds, I believe has paid off.  Here in the later single-digit rounds as I see coaches scrambling to select quarterbacks like Alex Smith and Sam Bradford, I know who two of my plays are going to be EVERY week.

We’re now in the eleventh round and the cupboard is starting to get very bare.  This is where the research will make a big difference … that and some protection.

Follow me on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

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jeff haverlack