ADP Mining: Running Back Edition

Whenever I write articles, I generally start off with some kind of preamble. This one will be brief, but it’s something that came to mind when reviewing recent ADP trends, and I think it’s worth highlighting here at the outset.

Many people are familiar with the term “opportunity cost.” I initially came across this term in college, where I majored in economics and minored in beer pong. However I’m hearing it a lot more these days as the concept of opportunity cost is something that comes up in fantasy football all the time. In case you aren’t familiar with the term, opportunity cost is simply the next best alternative that you gave up in order to choose something else.

If that sounds very broad, it’s because it is. Opportunity cost can be just about anything: time, money, materials, resources, careers, girlfriends, video games, etc. For example, by electing to go study economics at UMASS Amherst, I gave up the opportunity to go to Northeastern University in Boston. By writing this article, I passed up on continuing to build my Madden 25 dynasty. By reading this article, you have missed out on reading something else, or going to sleep, or for a walk; whatever you almost did instead of reading this article was the opportunity cost you paid to read it.

The parallel to fantasy football, the thought I am trying to put into your head, is this – whenever you own a player in fantasy football, you are giving up the opportunity to trade that player for something else. The fact you can trade or hold a player might seem so obvious that you are regretting now going for that walk right now, but the point is that even when you don’t take an action (i.e. “hold”) you are making a decision. Every day, the best possible offer for Player X in your league is out there, waiting to be discovered. Just because you haven’t teased it out into existence does not mean it doesn’t exist. Every day you don’t identify that offer, and accept it, you are essentially rejecting it.

Let’s say you own Josh Gordon on a team. Now let’s say tomorrow morning you wake up, brush your teeth, go to work, come home, binge watch House of Cards (which I did recently, and I do recommend) and go to bed. You may never have set internet-foot onto MFL or wherever, but today, you rejected a trade offer for Josh Gordon. You said “I know he probably won’t play this year, and seems like an incredibly shaky bet long-term, but I’d still rather have Gordon than <Opportunity Cost Offer>.”

Maybe that offer was a third round pick. Maybe it was Terrance Williams, or Ben Tate, or maybe it was Marqise Lee. I don’t know what it was, but I don’t have to – I’m not the one who rejected it. You were.

So again, just something to keep in mind – inaction, “holding,” doesn’t really exist. By sitting on a player, you are constantly rejecting the best alternative to not holding him, i.e. your opportunity cost. If there’s someone on your roster who you don’t like enough to do that, get out there and make something happen.

With yet another lengthy preamble out of the way, here are a few running backs whose ADP’s stuck out to me in June, and may be under/over valued in your league:

Too Low

DeMarco Murray, DAL (#29 overall, RB10)

Insert Rodney Dangerfield “respect” line. I feel like this one is so obvious, it’s not even worth the effort of writing full sentences. Twenty-six year old bell-cow running back. High octane offense. PPR machine. Injury-prone = misnomer. Scott Linehan. Dallas Cowboys defense. Dome. NFC East shootouts. RB4 in PPG in 2014.

Rather than list the several names who are going before Murray that I think are a mistake, I will just say if my medication were to stop working tomorrow and I signed up for yet another startup dynasty league, Murray would be by RB4 behind only LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy.

Stevan Ridley, NE (#108 overall, RB31)

I’m a Patriots fan, and yes, there was a stretch last season where you held your breath whenever Ridley disappeared into a pile with the ball in his hands, or covered your eyes and peaked through your fingers to see if you saw the ball hit the ground. It was frustrating for everyone, both in the real football world and the fantasy one.

[inlinead]That said, I think the whole fumbling issue has been overblown a little bit. Ridley is a very good (not great) runner. He’ll never break the 50 yard play (literally, as his career long is 41), but he’s elusive, effective up the middle and tough in short-yardage. He will struggle to put up RB1 numbers simply because his lack of receptions and the presence of Shane Vereen, but I would feel very comfortable him as my RB2, which is putting him far higher than his RB31 ADP in June.

This sentiment is supported by reading some off-season tea leaves as well. The Patriots let LeGarrette Blount go this off-season and didn’t bring in anyone else of note to bolster the backfield. You may consider James White of note (I do not, at least not right now), but he’s more in the mold of a Shane Vereen anyway. In an off-season in which starting caliber running backs got paid less than kickers, it would not have been difficult for the Patriots to bring in some competition for Ridley and they didn’t. I’m putting my money on a nice rebound from Ridley and think he’s a steal at RB31.

Mark Ingram, NO (#146 overall, RB46)

Ingram is basically the Ghost of Christmas Future for Trent Richardson. This is where you end up when your pedigree is a distant memory and people are just simply tired of waiting for you – that is, you end up behind Knile Davis and Marcus Lattimore and just barely ahead of household names like Andre Williams.

Let’s be clear – Ingram is no more than a stash. The Saints elected not to exercise his option, which means he will hit free agency next year. Even if Ingram ultimately ends up in bad situation (or in a good situation but performs poorly), at the very least you will be able to sell him for a profit during the inevitable pre-free agency buzz period. I can almost see the Rotoworld headlines now: “Patriots interested in Mark Ingram?” “Mark Ingram visits Carolina.” “Texans considered top contender to land Mark Ingram.”

Maybe I’m overselling the interest Ingram will have in free agency, but I think at the very least, he can end up with a nice Toby Gerhart-like bump a year from now. People will make excuses for Ingram having to do with how the Saints used him (not unfounded, by the way) and convince themselves that “Team X” is going to use Ingram like he should’ve been used from day one. If you buy that story, you are holding a promising, cheap lottery ticket. If you don’t, you will have a window during which you should be able to sell him at a profit.

Others

Toby Gerhart, JAX (#84 overall, RB25)

The hype on Gerhart seems to be rising as the reports come out about how heavily he is likely to be used. If the Gerhart owner in your league is paying attention, it may be that his price in your league may be much higher than this, but it’s worth a price check anyways. He is, after all on the Jaguars, a relative mystery due to his sparse playing time thus far. Gerhart has the tools to be an all-purpose running back, and I’d be very comfortable with him as my RB2.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR (#175 overall, RB59)

Snickering at delusional Stewart owners who annually put up the “this is the year!” story used to be a personal hobby of mine, but it’s now to the point where Stewart is virtually free. The thing about taking chances on players who are near-free is that due to the low cost, you don’t have to hit on many of them to come ahead. Will Stewart break out this season? Probably not. He’s only 27, but his legs are nearing retirement. That said, DeAngello Williams is another year older, it’s a good offense and if Stewart could stay healthy, well, maybe this is the year.

CJ Anderson, DEN (#179 overall, RB62)

Even as a Montee Ball fan (and owner), this one seems easy. Barring a career 180 by Ronnie Hillman, Anderson looks like a safe bet to be the next man up behind Ball. Even the most ardent Ball fan has to admit there is a non-zero chance he fails, not to mention the risk all players carry of suffering a serious injury. Anderson, at this point, looks like a very cheap insurance policy.

Too High

Trent Richardson, IND (#49 overall, RB17)

Richardson is someone who I was thinking of targeting as a post-hype buy-low player this off-season; until I saw that he really wasn’t going all that low. I mean, certainly his early fifth round ADP is a substantial drop-off from where he was going just a year ago, but at the same time, it’s very high for someone who put together the tape Richardson did in 2013. Sticking with the opportunity cost theme, here are the next five players drafted after Richardson: Arian Foster, Shane Vereen, Christine Michael, Carlos Hyde, and Ryan Mathews. If you’re drafting Richardson are your RB2 over Foster, Vereen and Mathews, you’re a braver man than I. If you’re taking a more youth-heavy approach, I think both Michael and Hyde are better bets at this point than Richardson.

There’s little question in my mind that the invisible hand of “pedigree” is at play here. Richardson’s NFL draft position and productive rookie season are combining to build a floor beneath Richardson’s value. It’s a great example of why NFL draft position should factor into your rookie draft decisions, a point I endeavored to make in another article I wrote recently (#synergy). It’s because of his first round label that, despite a woeful sophomore season, Richardson will still fetch you a decent price if you are motivated to sell.

That said, if Richardson puts together another poor season and fails to substantially separate himself from the other running backs in Indianapolis and truly take over that job, I believe his value will sink low enough to make him a genuine “buy low” 2015. If you’re not a fervent believer, I’d look to make a fruitful exit while you still can.

Zac Stacy, STL (40.7, RB13)

Stacy had a nice rookie season, but personally, I’m not buying him as a legitimate bell-cow running back. His production was hugely reliant on volume last year and his volume was largely due to the lack of quality options the Rams had in 2013. They now have a player is clearly better than anyone else they had behind Stacy a season ago in Tre Mason and while Mason may not completely steal the starting gig from Stacy, he is a good bet to reduce Stacy’s workload.

I don’t want to make it sound like I think Stacy’s a bad player or that Mason is definitely going to overtake him, but his price is simply too high at this moment. Again, thinking in terms of opportunity cost, if you can get late-RB1 value for him as his ADP would suggest, I think you would be wise to sell.

Jeremy Hill, CIN (95.90, RB29)

The 29th running back may not seem all that high, but consider some of the names going later than that – Devonta Freeman, Stevan Ridley, even Lamar Miller. All these players have something Hill does not – high upside. Unless you’re predicting a Gio Bernard injury or waiting for Hill’s second team before his career even begins, I would be very interested to know how Hill is going to return consistent fantasy-starting level production on your investment playing second fiddle for a more dynamic runner. I wish Hill had ended up in a better situation, but I simply don’t think he’ll ever play the majority of the snaps in Cincinnati, so I struggle with the notion he should be taken ahead of some other players who have the potential to be productive fantasy starters.

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