LIVE Draft Recap: Fish Bowl 2QB Super-Flex Redraft

Jeff Haverlack

fishbowl
Do you smell that?  That’s right, it’s the Scott Fish Bowl … and it’s stronger than ever in 2014.

Our very own Scott Fish started his ‘bowl’ back in 2010 and nothing has polarized the fantasy community quite like it has.  180 Fantasy Analysts and 60 fans comprise the 240 teams that square off annually vying for a little prize money and other handouts from some of the participating sites.  More than anything, however, it’s about pride and good fun.  Bragging rights may also apply.

Here are a few details of the league(s):

  • 240 Teams
  • 4 Conferences
  • 20 Divisions of 12 Teams
  • 22 Round Slow Draft
  • Start:  1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 4 Flex (QB/RB/WR/TE – Only 1 Flex QB) – 11 Total
  • No Kickers or Defenses
  • No Trading
  • Waivers:  $100 Blind Bidding

Scoring is as follows:

  • Passing Touchdown = 4 Points
  • 25 Yards Passing = 1 Point
  • Rushing/Receiving Touchdown  = 6 Points
  • 10 yards Rushing/Receiving = 1 Point
  • Point Per Reception (PPR) = 1 Point
  • Points per Rushing Attempt = .2

And of course, all the leagues are hosted and powered by MyFantasyLeague.com

Now that the details have been, well, detailed, let’s get to the draft as it’s unfolding. Because we want to get this information out to all DLF readers, I will be breaking the draft down into completed rounds, this one being through round four. Note that through the link at the top of the is article, you can find all the conferences, divisions and draft information for your enjoyment. For purposes of this series of articles, I will be reviewing the draft of the 12 teams comprising the Doc Holliday Division, my division obviously. After a randomization to determine draft order, I was given the seventh pick in the serpentine draft.

My format for round review will be the listing of all the picks within the round, followed by my selection for biggest value, biggest reach and overall assessment of the round.  I will, of course, do my very best to be objective and call’em like a I see’em. And remember, this is an annual redraft league, not our typical dynasty content.

Let’s get to the picks:

Round One

1.01  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Jamaal Charles,  RB KC
1.02  High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
1.03  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – LeSean McCoy, RB PHI
1.04  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
1.05  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Matt Forte, RB CHI
1.06  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Eddie Lacy, RB GB
1.07  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Peyton Manning, QB DEN
1.08  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Drew Brees, QB DEN
1.09  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Calvin Johnson, WR DET
1.10  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
1.11  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
1.12  Fantasy Ball Blogger:  Jesse Ferreira, RB Montee Ball, RB DEN

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Biggest Reach

Is there really a reach in the first round what with so many high scoring names appearing.  One could mention Montee Ball but it’s easy to see how Ball’s value should be quite high with the departure of Knowshon Moreno. In the end, I believe the selection of Marshawn Lynch at 1.02 is the biggest reach and it was quite a surprise to at least a few of us.  Again, however, Lynch is truly a beast in the Seahawk offense and should get his touches once again.  But Christine Michael lurks and may very well cut into Lynch’s snaps as Coach Pete tries to ascertain what Michael could be for the Hawks in 2015.  This isn’t a reach because of Lynch’s abilities as much as it is consideration of other backs that fell just below him that, in my book, are safer plays with greater upside.  The reach is a minor one.

Biggest Value

I hate doing this and shy away from it when it’s close.  But I give the best value pick to my selection of Peyton Manning.  It’s corny I know, but I have to.  I believe Manning was no less than a top three selection in this format due to the Super-Flex nature alone.  Manning led the league in fantasy points in this format with 451 last year, to Jamaal Charles’ 434.  No other player eclipsed 400.  Producing at the same level will be a nearly impossible feat to recreate, but there’s little doubt that he’ll be a major producer if he stays healthy.

Summary

With the Super-Flex being what it is, I was genuinely shocked to see six running backs off the board in the first six selections.  It gave me pause and I had to double check the format to ensure that I wasn’t about to make a huge mistake.  Given that my strategy will be to have two top ten quarterbacks by the end of the fourth round, Manning alone, in my estimation, is worth 1.5 of those and when I pair him with my second, should make for fantasy headaches for my game-day opponent. Aside from my Manning selection, I like the names that grace this round.  They all make sense to me and I’m not overly shocked to see any of the names listed.  Calvin Johnson at 1.08, who I struggled with not selecting, is a great value as well. As for the running backs, it’s not hard to see the reasoning with getting a top name early.  There are only a handful of clear-cut runners and most will be gone by the third round.  An early selection of one here high in the first assures the coach of having an every-week starter that should post well.

Round Two

2.01   Fantasy Ball Blogger:  Jesse Ferreira – Andrew Luck, QB IND
2.02  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Jimmy Graham, TE NO
2.03  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – DeMarco Murray, RB DAL

2.04  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Dez Bryant, WR DAL
2.05  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Julio Jones, WR ATL
2.06  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – A.J. Green, WR CIN
2.07  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Matthew Stafford, QB DET
2.08  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
2.09  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Antonio Brown, WR PIT
2.10  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Robert Griffin III, QB WAS
2.11   High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Julian Edelman, WR NE
2.12  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

Biggest Reach

Again, I like most of the names in this grouping.  The Edelman pick is too high for my liking.  Edelman is a PPR machine but the return of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Dobson coupled with the signing of Brandon LaFell will likely affect Edelman in a negative way, especially in quality touches.  He’s never been a touchdown scorer, producing only six last year so he has to produce with receptions to be worth a high selection.  He is most certainly a producer but I’d put the over/under on receptions at 88 in 2014 which is about a 15% reduction from his 2013 production.  Still a high selection target but I think he could have been had a round later.

Biggest Value

There’s a large objective part of me that believes A.J. Green is the easy choice here at 2.06.  But I’m going to call it a dead heat between Green, Jeffery and Brown at their respective selections.  Because of the quarterback run of the first and and early-second round, top-named receivers have dropped.  All make for great value plays and all are different.  Green is a Megatron like force for Cincinnati but has yet to quite produce at that level.  Jeffery produces on the opposite side of Brandon Marshall and should easily produce at a high level again.  Antonio Brown will always be marked down due to size but shouldn’t be.  And he finally found out how to find the end-zone in 2013.  He’s a PPR beast and if he can continue to score, he could be considered a high second round selection.

Summary

I don’t have much to add here.  These coaches are all bringing it and there’s no lightweights in this grouping, that’s obvious.  I’m seeing a high-risk, high-reward strategy by team “High Draft Picks”, but I respect bold moves with a high ceiling attached.  I still believe many are discounting the Super-Flex aspect to the league.  I can say that now since our four rounds are in the books and I have my two quarterbacks (as highlighted soon).  I did a fair amount of 2QB research and it’s seemingly very difficult to win the league without being able to have two quality starting quarterbacks.  Not impossible by any stretch, but more difficult.  I learned from my first 2QB draft not to go back-to-back at the position so I entered this draft with the expectation that I would nab my second slinger in the third or fourth round.

Round Three

3.01  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Cam Newton, QB CAR
3.02  High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Randall Cobb, WR GB
3.03  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Julius Thomas, TE DEN
3.04  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Tom Brady, QB NE
3.05  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Jay Cutler, QB CHI
3.06  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
3.07  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Arian Foster, RB HOU
3.08  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Gio Bernard, RB CIN
3.09  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Colin Kaepernick, QB SF
3.10  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Jordy Nelson, WR GB
3.11  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Andre Ellington, RB ARI
3.12  Fantasy Ball Blogger:  Jesse Ferreira -Nick Foles, QB PHI

Biggest Reach

Tough call here but I’ve got to go with Tom Brady at 3.04.  Brady could easily prove me wrong in 2014 but he had a un-Brady-like 2013 campaign, finishing as the QB14 in this format.  It’s easy to upgrade him a bit with a healthy Gronkowski, but this format strongly rewards rushing attempts or sheer yardage and touchdown totals.  I don’t believe Brady is a candidate for top eight at his position in this format and there are names on the board that have already demonstrated excellence in last year’s numbers.  This all said, Brady is durable and you can expect a better Brady this year.  I’m splitting hairs here trying to find a reach.

Biggest Value

Toss-up here and I don’t see a pure value stand-out.  All have value in this round.  If you held a gun to my head, I’d go with Jordy Nelson at 3.10.  I think he should be drafted ahead of fellow Packer Randall Cobb.  Nelson has proven that he can be a legitimate WR1 and I would have had no problem with him being selected at the bottom of round two.  With Cobb back in the lineup, Nelson should get more quality receptions in 2014.

Round Four

4.01   Fantasy Ball Blogger:  Jesse Ferreira – C.J. Spiller, RB BUF
4.02  Draft Sharks:  Kevin English – Doug Martin, RB TB
4.03  Fantasy Council:  Brian Riedmiller – Matt Ryan, QB ATL

4.04  Bossman Show:  JD Beckler – Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
4.05  Fan of DLF:  Steve Labac – Tony Romo, QB DAL
4.06  Dynasty League Football:  Jeff Haverlack – Russell Wilson, QB SEA
4.07  Fantasy Football Underground:  @CoinFlip22 – Pierre Garcon, WR WAS
4.08  FFToolbox:  Scott Atkins – Keenan Allen, WR SD
4.09  Fan of DLF:  Robert Vita – Victor Cruz, WR NYG
4.10  Fan of FFUG:  Connie Weiss – Alfred Morris, RB WAS
4.11   High Draft Picks:  (Fan – Don) – Andre Johnson, WR HOU
4.12  Football Guys:  Ryan Hester – Percy Harvin, WR SEA

Biggest Reach

I really can’t say enough about this group.  All very solid drafters and even here in the fourth round, players coming off the board are well timed.  I’m not going to do a disservice to any of these drafters and call a reach in this round.  I have no problem with any of the picks.  What say you all?

Biggest Value

Same goes for the value label here.  I could make a case for just about any of these players, especially Spiller, Martin and Wilson.  But, again, I’d be splitting hairs.  All these players represent solid value for the round.

Summary

After a few surprising early picks, things have settled down and players are flying off the board at positions that are appropriate.  It’s a knowledgeable group and mistakes will be penalized, this much is obvious.  Things really start getting interesting now.  Those without quarterbacks are going to be hurting I feel unless they have an extremely productive core.  The players are really starting to thin out now as well when looking at those available.  We have another dozen or so left that are quite valuable and then the ‘most prepared’ coaches will begin pulling away with solid picks with a production edge.

After four rounds I’m quite pleased with my team:

1.07  Peyton Manning, QB DEN
2.06  A.J. Green, WR CIN
3.07  Arian Foster, RB HOU
4.06  Russell Wilson, QB SEA

For my 5.07 selection, I have two guys targeted, one of which many won’t agree with me on but I’m willing to go there if I’m able to.  He’s my second choice of the two.  We’ll see….

Follow me on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

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jeff haverlack