The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

rice

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. I’m in a 10-team, 2PPR league where we get to keep eight players total from the year before.  Salaries are auction-based, going up by $10/year, with second year rookies checking in at only $5 apiece. My question is should I trade Kenny Stills and Christine Michael (both $5) for Josh Gordon ($20)?  My other seven keepers are Andrew Luck, Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, TY Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Rob Gronkowski and Justin Hunter. We start two running backs and three receivers.Tom in MA

This makes for an interesting trade scenario, as Browns receiver Josh Gordon and Seahawks running back Christine Michael represent two of dynasty football’s most polarizing players. Indeed, in a world full of wishy-washy opinions and shades of grey, most seem to be clearly on one side of the fence or the other when it comes to this pair of talented young footballers. Even team DLF appears to be split down the middle.

Previously, our own Karl Safchick opined Gordon could be the next Dez Bryant, while more recently Jeff Haverlack explored the sad state of affairs his absence could cause the Browns, and whether he’s a trustworthy player anymore. Rob Pitzer penned a statistical piece heaping praise on Michael, while I urged caution that owners buying now aren’t building the potential of failure into his price. Even a recent DLF Poll was split nearly down the middle about Michael’s place in the dynasty hierarchy.

Continuing, I spoke in last week’s Mailbag about the concept of risk assessment as it relates to the players on our rosters. As I believe I’ve shown above, both Gordon and Michael carry substantial risk and potential headaches. Gordon has his well-chronicled substance abuse issues, while Michael has been slowed by injuries, exhibited a poor attitude in college and was truly never asked to carry the load.

So while this deal remains somewhat close, many factors have ultimately led me to side with Gordon. Your 2PPR league setting greatly benefits pass catchers, and the roster requirements dictate only 20 running backs will be starting on a weekly basis. Also, I don’t think you have room in your list of keepers for Saints receiver Kenny Stills, making him almost a non-entity in this deal. Finally, neither player is likely to produce in 2014, but Gordon has at the very least shown his talent on the NFL level – even with the headaches he could bring, I believe he’s worth it.

2. In a 10-team PPR keeper league we hang onto five guys, with a value assigned to each player corresponding to the pick you would lose. I’m going to keep Gio Bernard (third round), Shane Vereen (fifth), Michael Floyd (9th) and Joique Bell (11th), so given the following players who would be your choice for the last spot: Christine Michael (10th round, 8th in 2015) or Jordan Cameron (15th round, 13th in 2015)? Given other teams’ rosters, I will be able to get two top-six WR/TE in the first two rounds. I want to play for the championship in 2014, but is Cameron too important a piece to lose? We start two running backs and three total WR/TE’s.Clem in IL

And here we are again, talking about young Mr. Michael’s future. You said it yourself, and I mentioned it above as well, but it’s worth repeating – in all likelihood Michael isn’t going to help you this year. However, as crazy as it might seem, Browns tight end Jordan Cameron isn’t nearly as useful as he would be normally, either.

Often times we dynasty aficionados are guilty of looking at our players in a vacuum. Many have a “BPA” mentality, and choose to look at talent over situation and positional distinction – I’m not saying this methodology is wrong, but simply that it doesn’t always apply. In this case in particular, choosing to roster Cameron based upon his abilities alone belies the fact that tight end value is grossly mitigated given your roster requirements.

Since you don’t have a delineation between the receiver and tight end positions, Cameron’s value plummets. To that point, even though he finished as the overall TE5 in 2013, when stacked up against the combination of receivers and tight ends, that value slips to that of the WR/TE26. He’s not worthless by any stretch, but no longer does he remain any sort of positional advantage.

However, even given that I think I’d hang onto Cameron. He stands to benefit due to upgraded quarterback play, and Gordon’s absence should prove a benefit to his volume as well. Cameron should remain a start-able and relatively valuable entity for your team, and it’s hard to ask for much more than that.

3. In my half-PPR league I have room to keep three running backs out of Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Steven Jackson and Pierre Thomas. I’m obviously keeping Lynch, but what about the other two?Ben in NY

While Marshawn Lynch seems likely to retain his place amongst the RB1 tier, your other available options are far dicier as it relates to 2014 production. Be it age, injury concerns or both, none appears to be any sort of lock for starter-level viability. With that said though, I think two have distinguished themselves from their counterpart.

[inlinead]Let’s begin with Atlanta’s Steven Jackson. Though S-Jax owners had high hopes of him playing out his twilight in the Falcons’ high-octane offense, things clearly didn’t go to script. Jackson battled a hamstring injury for a good portion of the season, and even when he was healthy the offense appeared lost without star wideout Julio Jones. Even given that, I think this is a case where we need to put that in the rearview mirror – Jackson still has little competition in the way of volume, and should function as the team’s goal line back. For one more year of RB2-level output, he’s a guy I’d want on my roster.

The Saints’ Pierre Thomas is another. While he lacked his typical efficiency during the 2013 season, he more than made up for it in volume. To be precise, his 77 receptions were 54% more than his previous season high, and with Darren Sproles shipped off to Philadelphia it’s entirely possible they could increase again. Though he remains an aging and undervalued asset, Thomas is also likely to put forward a solid 2014.

This leaves Raiders ball carrier Darren McFadden on the figurative, and perhaps literal sidelines. A perennial tease, Run-DMC has pseudo-legitimate competition in free agent Maurice Jones-Drew and (theoretically) emerging sophomore Latavius Murray. As someone who recently traded the talented but oft-injured running back for a mid-third round pick this off-season, I would consider this cut to be anything but deep. Good riddance, Mr. McFadden.

4. Should I look to trade Ray Rice right now? If I do, what is his trade value in relation to the receiver tiers?Jared in AL

I spoke on Ravens running back Ray Rice in a recent DLF Podcast, and my take was simple – his 2014 viability is directly correlated to the length of the suspension. Should it be of the two to four game variety, I believe Rice will return to function as the team’s lead back, largely due to his body of work and the trust he’s earned from his coaching staff. On the other hand, if the suspension is to approach six games, as rumored, it’s Bernard Pierce’s job to lose – should Pierce show well, I think it will be impossible for John Harbaugh to ignore the hot hand.

Without getting into a philosophical debate about how long Rice should be suspended for, there’s precedent to show the suspension could be short. Fellow former first-time offenders, Fabian Washington and Cary Williams, committed acts similar to Rice and received one and two-game suspensions respectively. To the contrary though, it’s rumored commissioner Roger Goodell is seeking to make an example out of Rice, lending some credence to the possibility of a prolonged absence.

With his value in flux I believe it behooves owners to simply wait it out. Rice’s value is already at an all-time low, as according to the ADP data he’s being taken in the eighth round as the 27th overall running back. It’s certainly possible it could sink lower, but that remains simple speculation on an already relative level.

However, if you’re looking to get out while you can, there are several receiver options with average draft positions around that of Rice. This includes but is not limited to veterans like Mike Wallace, Wes Welker and Golden Tate, rookies such as Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Kelvin Benjamin and hypothetically promising young stashes in Aaron Dobson and Rueben Randle. If you believe any of these pass catchers represent an upgrade on the embattled Baltimore ball carrier, you should go ahead and make the trade. Just remember each of these players are being drafted in the same area as Rice for a reason – they have their own warts, and it’s possible you could just be trading one headache for another.

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eric hardter