As many followers of the DLF’s Weekly Impact Events know, each week seems to have a theme. It is not part of my plan, but I’m not shying away from it either. Last week I discussed the holdout of Vernon Davis, the displeasure of current situations of both Andre Johnson and Marshawn Lynch and the grievance filed against the league by the NFLPA regarding Jimmy Graham.
While discussing each of those players specific scenarios, I quoted the wise words of Pink Floyd and the Beatles. Today I will discuss coach speak. With mini camps over, and training camp on the horizon, there isn’t much concrete news developing regarding our favorite football players. If you put a microphone in front of a coach, however, you may get an insight into their plans for the upcoming year. Thus, the rock album of the day will be Talk Is Cheap by Keith Richards.
Knowshon Moreno, RB MIA
News: Moreno will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss four-to-six weeks. The Dolphins star center, Mike Pouncey, will have surgery on a torn labrum and will miss four-to-six months.
Analysis: Both of these injuries are bad news for Dolphin fans. Moreno is the most proven back on the roster. Pouncey is the most talented of a decimated group of linemen which seem to be unable to catch a break. The real news may be “What does this mean for Lamar Miller?” At the very least, Miller will get significant playing time in training camp. If the starting running back job was truly a competition in Miami, you have to consider Miller to be the front-runner now. This may also mean more passing opportunities for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins were already a pass-heavy offense. This may be exactly what the doctor ordered for Tannehill owners. I’d expect him to flirt with QB1 numbers in 2014.
Ladarius Green, TE SD
News: While Antonio Gates missed mini camp for “very personal reasons,” Green ran with the first team offense.
Analysis: Dynasty owners have been salivating over Green for a couple years now. In limited action, Green has shown to be an electric tight end with a bright future. The absence of Gates will provide Green the opportunity to get on the same page with quarterback, Philip Rivers. Green is being drafted in the seventh round of dynasty startups as the TE8. He is certainly worth a price-check in your league.
Zach Ertz, TE PHI
News: Ertz’ position coach says Ertz has similar tools to Shannon Sharpe and Ozzie Newsome.
Analysis: I told you this weeks edition would be filled with coach speak, but I’ll take whatever opportunity I can to talk about Ertz. I wrote a spotlight piece on him in January. I believe he will be the one player everyone wish they bought during the offseason. Last season, Ertz was eased into significant playing time, but all reports out of Eagles camp indicate Ertz’ role will increase significantly this year.
Justin Blackmon, WR JAX
News: The Jacksonville Jaguars have expressed they have “heard very little” from troubled wideout Blackmon this offseason.
Analysis: One of the most difficult things to predict in dynasty is whether or not a player is ready to mature. When on the field, Blackmon is one of the most dominant wide receivers in the game. Unfortunately, we’ve seen the other side of the coin and it isn’t pretty. In dynasty leagues, I’ll [inlinead]consider Blackmon a “hold.” There’s no reason to sell him for pennies on the dollar when he can return to win you a fantasy championship. If he never plays again, the reward still outweighs the risk.
David Wilson, RB NYG
News: Giants General Manager Jerry Reese expects Wilson to be ready to fully participate in training camp this summer.
Analysis: As I mentioned on the DLF Dynasty Podcast this week (look for that to be posted soon), “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” The Giants have all but moved on from Wilson. Rashad Jennings will certainly have a role in the offense. Reese called Jennings a “bellcow type” of back. Andre Williams is an Eric Hardter favorite. Despite the likely fact the Giants offense will not be setting any records, Wilson will be third in line for carries. If you can net a third round pick for Wilson, it would be a profitable move. Mr. Hardter says he’d rather have Williams on his dynasty team, and I agree.
Rueben Randle, WR NYG
News: Randle’s position coach, Sean Ryan, says he’s seen a “more focused” and “consistent” Randle at Giants mini camp.
Analysis: The ADP graph on Randle has been a roller coaster this off-season. There was a point leading up to the draft where Randle was being considered a low end WR2 by some. Then, Victor Cruz voiced his hope the Giants would draft a wide receiver in the first round. The Giants subsequently drafted Odell Beckham Jr with the twelfth overall pick in the NFL draft. Those two events (especially the latter) caused Randle’s ADP to plummet. Now his value has seemed to start evening out. During this whole process, I’ve never really wavered on Randle. He’s a fine WR3 with some upside. If you’re in a league where the Randle owner is panicking over the Beckham Jr addition, buy Randle on the cheap. If you own Randle and you have a league-mate who tends to overreact to coach speak, sell him high.
A few of these players are great examples of how to profit from coach speak. In Randle’s case, there was an opportunity to sell high early in the offseason. Then, you were presented with an opportunity to buy low after the draft. Depending on when you bought him, you may be sitting on a gold mine or a disappointment. In the case of Ertz, his perceived value has done nothing but increase since the first positive reports out of Philadelphia. In this scenario, coach speak appears to have been proven beneficial.
While the phrase “talk is cheap” can be used to describe the devaluation of words, I can imagine situations where “talk is cheap” means “profit for a small price” – meaning, coach speak can be useful, but do not overreact.
Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick
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Selling Wilson for a 3rd round pick is hugely undervaluing him. I recently acquired him for a high 2nd and turned around and sold him for Maclin. Elite production? No. But still much more valuable than flushing him for peanuts.
Wilson may not have a career worth of elite production, but I think he will have bursts of elite production. I think a RBBC is actually better fit for Wilson as opposed to be the lead back. Although apparently the Giants want their pass catching back to be able to block like Willie Roaf so who knows if Wilson will ever get the opportunities that his talent deserves.
I tend to agree here. I still think that David Wilson is more talented then everyone on the Giants roster at RB. he is the only guy in my mind that I can see as having legitimate top 15 talent at the position. Will he ever achieve that? Maybe not, but Coughlin’s career is almost over and if you believe the talk the MaCadoo could be the next head coach and everything can change. Too much talent/upside to sell for a third rounder for me.
You know, Jennings graded out as elite in more than one deep metric last season. Hes a better player than people realize, and hes a complete RB, unlike Wilson. If the Giants feed Jennings (and thats a big ‘if’,) I’m pretty sure he’d finish as a top 15 RB with ease. Its just too bad hes already 29.
As for Wilson, y’all are kidding yourselves thinking Wilson will ever run the way he did in his rookie year again. Every time he lowers his head now on a carry hes gonna be thinking about his neck and spine, and his career ending. Its a strong bet we wont ever see him hit the hole same way again.
Wilson had a career-threating injury that happened mid-season and he’s not yet cleared for contact. I’d be concerned that he’s one hit away from re-aggravating it. If anything, RB’s need some volume to sustain even Flex-worthiness, even in PPR. Wilson’s trajectory is looking nothing more than a COP back/KR. His durability is clearly an issue, and he’s never proven capable of taking over a given team’s backfield when he is healthy.
I replied below, but was going to reply to this thread too– he had a potentially career shortening injury, but the doctors are proceeding with caution to guarantee that he is safe before clearing him.
In the past, he would have been cleared mid-season, but the NFL is being much more cautious about these sort of injuries due to the PR and liability. Him not being cleared yet does nothing to change my mind about him.
Based on talent, I think he is a potential RB2, because I do cede that he might lose carries.
‘Might’? Its a guarantee. The coaching staff have already gone back to talking about using him on special teams. 1st-team RBs don’t return kicks. And CoP RBs dont make it to fantasy RB2 tier unless the offense is extremely run heavy. McAdoo doesn’t do run-heavy.
And you need to do some research on spinal stenosis and football players, btw. Its unlikely Wilson will still be in the NFL by age 27.
Where’d you pull that age out of? Isn’t the average career length of an NFL player 3-4 years anyway? So couldn’t you make that same argument for any player under the age of 27 right now? Spinal stenosis does not necessarily lead to any career ending injury. They may be more likely to suffer a “stinger” or other temporary forms of paralysis (so likely to miss time for that reason) but there isn’t any evidence that they are any more likely to be one hit away from catastrophe than anyone else.
What do you think Lamar Miller’s value is if I were to sell him? In terms of rookie picks and/or players?
Miller just went for a 2nd&3rd round pick in one of my leagues. If I owned him I would try to get a 1st for him but I would not buy him for a 1st.
I tend to agree. Best option is probably finding the Moreno owner in your league and if they are thin at RB they could get desperate to acquire Miller.
Id agree with above, as someone that would never expect Miller to take the feature job and run with it long-term. If someone considers him a starting player and offers thusly, Id send him packing.
Nice take on the NYG backfield. Its nice to see a fantasy writer, who still believes and touts upside, not take the overwhelmingly hyperbole stance on Wilson and actually look at the reality that his FF future is near flatlining, so get what you can.
Flat lining?
I think everyone who has given up on Wilson will be surprised when he produces. He struggled at the beginning of last year and got injured, but he is young and should be healthy and I think people just don’t like having any risk.
Wilson is a risk, but once cleared, I think he will produce. I have Rashad Jennings as a handcuff, but I think that Andre Williams isn’t worth a 3rd rounder and that Wilson is worth much more. We will see.
I have a devy league where I can possibly move Blackmon for Laquon Treadwell. Is this selling him to low?
No telling if Blackmon ever returns to football. I would probably do that, but I am high on Treadwell.
Suggs, Kevin Jones, Ryan Williams, David Wilson……enough of DLF banging on the Wisconsin backs not being NFL ready, lets take a look at VaaaaaaTech backs whom people tend to hold out hope for year after year…..
I don’t even know what to say, this made things so much eaeirs!
You’re the greatest! JMHO
Good to find an expert who knows what he’s talking about!
I’m grateful you made the post. It’s cleared the air for me.
