DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

As many followers of the DLF’s Weekly Impact Events know, each week seems to have a theme. It is not part of my plan, but I’m not shying away from it either. Last week I discussed the holdout of Vernon Davis, the displeasure of current situations of both Andre Johnson and Marshawn Lynch and the grievance filed against the league by the NFLPA regarding Jimmy Graham.

While discussing each of those players specific scenarios, I quoted the wise words of Pink Floyd and the Beatles. Today I will discuss coach speak. With mini camps over, and training camp on the horizon, there isn’t much concrete news developing regarding our favorite football players. If you put a microphone in front of a coach, however, you may get an insight into their plans for the upcoming year. Thus, the rock album of the day will be Talk Is Cheap by Keith Richards.

Knowshon Moreno, RB MIA

News: Moreno will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss four-to-six weeks. The Dolphins star center, Mike Pouncey, will have surgery on a torn labrum and will miss four-to-six months.

Analysis: Both of these injuries are bad news for Dolphin fans. Moreno is the most proven back on the roster. Pouncey is the most talented of a decimated group of linemen which seem to be unable to catch a break. The real news may be “What does this mean for Lamar Miller?” At the very least, Miller will get significant playing time in training camp. If the starting running back job was truly a competition in Miami, you have to consider Miller to be the front-runner now. This may also mean more passing opportunities for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins were already a pass-heavy offense. This may be exactly what the doctor ordered for Tannehill owners. I’d expect him to flirt with QB1 numbers in 2014.

Ladarius Green, TE SD

News: While Antonio Gates missed mini camp for “very personal reasons,” Green ran with the first team offense.

Analysis: Dynasty owners have been salivating over Green for a couple years now. In limited action, Green has shown to be an electric tight end with a bright future. The absence of Gates will provide Green the opportunity to get on the same page with quarterback, Philip Rivers. Green is being drafted in the seventh round of dynasty startups as the TE8. He is certainly worth a price-check in your league.

Zach Ertz, TE PHI

News: Ertz’ position coach says Ertz has similar tools to Shannon Sharpe and Ozzie Newsome.

Analysis: I told you this weeks edition would be filled with coach speak, but I’ll take whatever opportunity I can to talk about Ertz. I wrote a spotlight piece on him in January. I believe he will be the one player everyone wish they bought during the offseason. Last season, Ertz was eased into significant playing time, but all reports out of Eagles camp indicate Ertz’ role will increase significantly this year.

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

News: The Jacksonville Jaguars have expressed they have “heard very little” from troubled wideout Blackmon this offseason.

Analysis: One of the most difficult things to predict in dynasty is whether or not a player is ready to mature. When on the field, Blackmon is one of the most dominant wide receivers in the game. Unfortunately, we’ve seen the other side of the coin and it isn’t pretty. In dynasty leagues, I’ll [inlinead]consider Blackmon a “hold.” There’s no reason to sell him for pennies on the dollar when he can return to win you a fantasy championship. If he never plays again, the reward still outweighs the risk.

David Wilson, RB NYG

News: Giants General Manager Jerry Reese expects Wilson to be ready to fully participate in training camp this summer.

Analysis: As I mentioned on the DLF Dynasty Podcast this week (look for that to be posted soon), “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” The Giants have all but moved on from Wilson. Rashad Jennings will certainly have a role in the offense. Reese called Jennings a “bellcow type” of back. Andre Williams is an Eric Hardter favorite. Despite the likely fact the Giants offense will not be setting any records, Wilson will be third in line for carries. If you can net a third round pick for Wilson, it would be a profitable move. Mr. Hardter says he’d rather have Williams on his dynasty team, and I agree.

Rueben Randle, WR NYG

News: Randle’s position coach, Sean Ryan, says he’s seen a “more focused” and “consistent” Randle at Giants mini camp.

Analysis: The ADP graph on Randle has been a roller coaster this off-season. There was a point leading up to the draft where Randle was being considered a low end WR2 by some. Then, Victor Cruz voiced his hope the Giants would draft a wide receiver in the first round. The Giants subsequently drafted Odell Beckham Jr with the twelfth overall pick in the NFL draft. Those two events (especially the latter) caused Randle’s ADP to plummet. Now his value has seemed to start evening out. During this whole process, I’ve never really wavered on Randle. He’s a fine WR3 with some upside. If you’re in a league where the Randle owner is panicking over the Beckham Jr addition, buy Randle on the cheap. If you own Randle and you have a league-mate who tends to overreact to coach speak, sell him high.

A few of these players are great examples of how to profit from coach speak. In Randle’s case, there was an opportunity to sell high early in the offseason. Then, you were presented with an opportunity to buy low after the draft. Depending on when you bought him, you may be sitting on a gold mine or a disappointment. In the case of Ertz, his perceived value has done nothing but increase since the first positive reports out of Philadelphia. In this scenario, coach speak appears to have been proven beneficial.

While the phrase “talk is cheap” can be used to describe the devaluation of words, I can imagine situations where “talk is cheap” means “profit for a small price” – meaning, coach speak can be useful, but do not overreact.

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick

[ad5]