A Dynasty Blueprint: Punting Running Backs

Ryan McDowell

blueprint

This is the first article in a series I’m calling A Dynasty Blueprint, which will give you a look inside my general dynasty strategy, from startup drafting to trades and anything in between. I have a few topics already on the schedule, but if there is a specific topic you’d like me to cover, feel free to comment below.

I’ll begin the same way every dynasty league begins, with the startup draft. Specifically, I want to focus on my strategy regarding running backs. Before I get into the actual strategy, I’ll remind you of the importance of becoming very familiar with your league rules and settings before the startup draft or auction begins. With that said, my strategy will focus on the type of leagues I predominantly participate in, which are PPR leagues with flexible lineups. Most of my leagues only require one starting running back, but allow for as many as five. This format allows dynasty owners to build their team as they see fit rather than adjusting their plan to meet strict league requirements.

The Strategy

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My plan towards most startup drafts and auctions is the same regarding running backs: Wait, wait and wait some more. I refer to this as Punting Runnins Backs. Shawn Siegele of Rotoviz has done some extensive research about this same theory, which he has labeled Zero RB. Shawn’s work is slanted more towards redraft leagues, but I think the same ideas hold true in dynasty startup drafts.

In a typical startup draft, I will avoid the running back position as long as possible for many reasons, which I will discuss below. My early picks will be focused on the wide receiver position with a mix of young, high-upside quarterbacks and tight ends included as well. If my first four or five picks are wideouts, I’m not concerned. Granted, it may be a difficult task to compete for a title, or even a playoff spot early in the league’s existence, but that’s something I am willing to accept. I’ll also cover this idea in greater detail in an upcoming Dynasty Blueprint.

The Ideas Behind Punting Running Backs

The requirement of only one starting running back allows me to focus on building my team base from the wide receiver position, while hopefully also grabbing a top young quarterback and tight end, as I mentioned. Of course, running backs play an important role for any dynasty team and from week to week can score as well as any wide receiver, but there have been a couple of trends over the past few years that have led myself and many others to build around the wide receiver position.

First, the usage and popularity of running back by committee, or RBBC as it’s widely known, has greatly decreased the number of top every down backs that can be counted on as fantasy point scorers. This leaves some owners reaching for unproven or underwhelming talents while others have moved on and are building their teams differently than in the past.

Another factor that has pushed me in the direction of the stud wide receiver is the growth of PPR leagues. The fairness of full PPR for all players can be discussed at great length, but the reality is that seems to be the new norm and most owners have adjusted their game plans accordingly. I do still play in leagues that are non-PPR and others that use a tiered PPR system in an effort to balance the positional scoring.

Next, the NFL itself seems to be devaluing the position. I know there are some who dispute this idea and simply chalk it up to poor timing and subpar rookie and/or free agent classes over the past two seasons, but I’m not sure that is to blame. It is well-known now that there has not been a running back drafted in the first round in the past two NFL Drafts. Also, despite some big names being available via free agency, the lofty contracts are just not there for running backs. Teams seem to know they can piecemeal a solid running back group, rather than spend big money or waste a high draft pick. Obviously, that doesn’t mean we won’t see another first round back. In fact, expect a couple next season in Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon, but for now, the running back position has become the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football, getting no respect.

Finally, I have become accustomed to relying on early round receiver picks simply because that’s what a majority of my leaguemates are doing. I’ve often seen people recommending to “zig when others are zagging.” I appreciate that theory and I think it has some merit in dynasty fantasy football, but I would not follow it during a startup draft. If the majority of your league is drafting youth or wide receivers early, why go against that. You would clearly be taking the players others in your league value less, meaning you would be left with few trade options at the conclusion of the startup. It works the same way at the other end of the spectrum. If most of your league is playing to win now and selecting veterans, then go with that flow and grab some vets of your own. Why? Because they represent the more valuable commodity in that particular league. With this in mind, it’s always important to have a balance on your team, across positions and between youth and veterans.

Examples of Punting Running Backs

I first tried this strategy back in 2009 in the startup draft for HyperActive 4 against some pretty tough competition. I landed the 1.01 draft slot and up until that point, taking anyone other than the top running back with the first selection was heresy. I did just that and will show the full results below. I sometimes find it difficult to look back at drafts and properly assess the quality of the draft, as time affects my memory of the players’ value at the time. Because of that, I ask you to focus not on the actual players chosen, but the positions of those players.

1.01 Calvin Johnson, WR
2.12 Eddie Royal, WR
3.01 Wes Welker, WR
4.12 Jay Cutler, QB
5.01 Ronnie Brown, RB
6.12 Kenny Britt, WR
7.01 Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR
8.12 Jamaal Charles, RB
9.01 Matt Cassel, QB
10.12 Jerious Norwood, RB
11.01 Jordy Nelson, WR
12.12 Tashard Choice, RB
13.01 Josh Freeman, QB
14.12 Shawn Nelson, TE
15.01 Juaquin Iglesias, WR
16.12 James Hardy, WR
17.01 Bernard Scott, RB
18.12 Earnest Graham, RB
19.01 Martellus Bennett, TE
20.12 Ricky Williams, RB
21.01 Ladell Betts, RB
22.12 Michael Vick, QB
23.01 Muhsin Muhammad, WR
24.12 Stevie Johnson, WR
25.01 Kolby Smith, RB
26.12 Dominique Edison, WR

I like to focus on the first eight rounds as the real bread and butter of my team. Obviously, there are always value picks to be had in the middle and latter rounds of a draft, but the core of any team comes from the first few rounds. As I mentioned, this was the first time I had attempted this strategy and there were obviously some picks I look back at and cringe. I came out of the first eight rounds with a quarterback, two running backs and five wide receivers. That is actually very similar to what a draft of mine might look like today. Even years later, I remember making the Ronnie Brown pick and instantly regretting it, partially because I was not a strong believer in Brown but mostly because I knew I was making a “need” pick, which I no longer believe in for startup drafts. Of course, the Jamaal Charles pick and a few of the other “hits” in the mid and late rounds look great, but again, that is not the point of this exercise.

You might notice that after those eight rounds, my positional distribution becomes more balanced. Of the eighteen players selected after round eight, there were three quarterbacks, eight running backs, six wide receivers and two tight ends. Clearly, you can’t completely ignore the running back position, so in the middle rounds, I’ll begin to hammer pick after pick with running backs. As you see in this draft, my strategy is to collect a mixture of young and old running backs as value falls. This paid off for me with this team in the likes of the veteran Ricky Williams and the young, unproven runner, Charles.

I want to provide another more recent example. Three years after the draft shown above, I started HyperActive 5 and filled it with some of the most active dynasty players found on Twitter. I took the Punting Running Backs plan to the extreme in this draft, as you can see below.

1.01 Calvin Johnson, WR
1.10 AJ Green, WR
4.03 Aaron Hernandez, TE
5.10 Andrew Luck, QB
6.03 Michael Floyd, WR
7.10 Randall Cobb, WR
9.09 Kendall Hunter, RB
9.10 LaMichael James, RB
10.12 Andy Dalton, QB
11.10 Jon Baldwin, WR
12.03 Ryan Williams, RB
13.10 Mohamed Sanu, WR
14.03 LeGarrette Blount, RB
16.03 Tim Tebow, QB
17.10 Martellus Bennett, TE
18.03 Montario Hardesty, RB
19.10 TJ Graham, WR
20.12 Mark Sanchez, QB
21.10 Chris Ivory, RB
22.03 Tommy Streeter, WR
23.10 Bryce Brown, RB
24.03 Michael Egnew, TE
25.10 Taylor Thompson, TE
26.03 Brian Hoyer, QB
26.12 Keshawn Martin, WR

As you can see, I moved around via trades quite a bit more than in the first draft posted, leaving me with only six players from the top eight rounds, and none of them were running backs. I focused exclusively on collecting younger backs in the middle and late rounds and few ended up as hits for this team. Luckily, I hit on nearly every pick in the first eight rounds and that has carried my team. Some of the running backs that were selected in the first round were Ray Rice, Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. Remember, this was just two years ago. The version of this article two years from now could be mentioning the names Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson as first round picks from 2014. Running backs simply don’t maintain their value like wide receivers, or even quarterbacks and tight ends.

You’re probably wondering about the success of this strategy with these two specific teams, and in general. You’ll have to look for the next edition of my Dynasty Blueprint, where I’ll cover my general draft strategy and the typical year one difficulty I endure.

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ryan mcdowell