Rankings, The Great Myth: Tight End Edition

In our fourth installment of Rankings Mythology, we will analyze the data on tight ends. Our final installment will tie all positions together and evaluate how accuracy of projections can impact a value-based drafting approach. In case you missed them, here were the first three installments of the series:

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers

We use the same methods as with our first three series, and here is a review of them:

1. Preseason projections were recorded for the 2013 season.
2. Total points scored were recorded weeks one to 17 for all players included in this study.
3. Standard scoring was used, as it was the method used in the projections data obtained from the site.
4. Data for the top 20 tight ends were recorded.
5.  Projected point totals were subtracted from actual point totals, and this ended up being a positive or negative number, depending on whether projections were over or underestimated.
6.  The accuracy of each author in predicting the exact numerical ranking for each player was recorded.

Table One

The first name that stands out is Zach Sudfeld, a pre-season favorite and trendy pick to break out in 2014. Instead, Sudfeld just broke down, got waived by New England and produced meager numbers with the New York Jets (five receptions, 63 yards, no touchdowns). Sudfeld was picked as high as the TE13 per 2013 ADP data from MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL), and ended up the TE83. Sudfeld represents the dark side of hype.

Fred Davis is another curious projection. Davis hasn’t finished in the top 24 tight ends since 2009, with a cascade of injuries and off-the-field issues marring his production. Yet he was picked to finish in the top 20 by all four authors, despite not sniffing that production the prior three years.

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Injuries impacted the position, but aside from Allen, is anyone surprised that Gronkowski, Kyle Rudolph, Jermichael Finley and Owen Daniels had their seasons cut-short with injuries? Gronkowski is a strong sell for me, and has been for two years now. I love his talent and production, but he won’t help his dynasty owners from the bench.

The two most interesting examples are Graham and Davis. Despite all four authors correctly projecting Graham as the top tight end, Graham still exceeded all projections. Davis is similar to Graham in this regard. Graham is simply astounding, with projections that listed him as the top tight end, yet still managed to underestimate his dominance at the position.

Table Two

Table two shows the success rates of projections for tight ends in the top 10 and 20 for 2013. Similar to other positions, it is slightly better than a coin flip. This is the second-best showing amongst positions, with only quarterbacks having a better success rate.

Table Three

Similar to other positions, the ability to accurately predict the final rank of a player is poor. There were 80 opportunities to achieve a correct ranking, and just five ended up finishing as predicted (6.25%). Still, this is the best of all positions.

Table Four

Table four shows the PPD for tight ends, and it is the best of all positions. Still, it’s not inspiring much confidence in the powers of prognostication. Consistent with all other positions, there is a tendency to overestimate player production.

Table Five

Table five provides more evidence that player projections are usually overestimated and are remarkably similar amongst all authors. All four positions showed a strong tendency to overestimate player production and there wasn’t much deviation in projections, suggesting authors have a difficult time deviating from their colleagues’ opinions. Tight ends had the fewest overestimates of all positions, but still an unacceptably high 61%.

Table Six

Thomas stands out as the best value from the tight end class of 2013. Julius Thomas had been a tease up until last year, with promising talent, but he had only one reception in 2011 and 2012. Thomas shows that sometimes patience with a roster stash can pay off handsomely.

Tim Wright came from nowhere and finished as the highest scoring rookie tight end, better than Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert. Nobody could have called that, but Wright finished as a high-end TE2, showing solid rapport with Mike Glennon. While Wright seems to be an afterthought in dynasty right now, he did have a very nice season, and is worth acquiring at a very cheap price. Wright may need a trade out of Tampa Bay to be relevant but at least he showed potential.

Graham once again shows how valuable he is in dynasty, finishing as the fourth best value at tight end in 2013. Graham finished far above his lofty projections based on his PPD, and his dominance was sustained despite having an expensive average draft position (2013 MFL ADP 20).

Davis is similar to Graham, finishing with a very solid -42.5 PPD, indicating he far out-performed his projections in 2013. Unlike Graham, Davis was significantly less expensive (2013 MFL ADP 60), and he continues to be under-appreciated (2014 DLF ADP 76).

Antonio Gates is a pariah in dynasty, yet still finished as the ninth best tight end in 2013. While Ladarius Green is a hot target for dynasty owners (ADP 86), Gates is a complete after-thought (ADP 193), being drafted behind Colt Lyerla and just ahead of Troy Niklas. For contenders, Gates could give solid production for an extremely cheap price this year. Notably, he did out-perform projections, albeit modestly, with a PPD -16.

Greg Olsen is curious to me. He finished as the eighth best tight end in 2013 and he has finished in the top 10 the past two years. He modestly out-performed projections with a -9 PPD, but at least he gave owners expected value. MFL listed his 2013 ADP as 92, good for TE9, and he finished as TE8. Not bad at all. His 2014 ADP is very attractive, at 123, so despite sustaining value the past two years, his cost is dropping. Right now, Olsen is being drafted behind Jace Amaro as a mid-range TE2. I think Olsen is worth more and is a discounted target for dynasty owners looking for solid production for the next two-to-three years.

The final installment of Rankings Mythology will review a mock draft using a value-based approach with projections data compared to final data from 2013. The concept of value-based drafting is intriguing, but how can it be successful given projections are notoriously inaccurate? Stay tuned. My final article in this series will put value-based drafting strategy to the test.

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