Fork in the Road: Assessing Players with Small Sample Sizes

Russell Clay Posted On June 12, 2014

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As I’ve mentioned before, and will continue believe as long as I’m involved with fantasy football, there’s inherent risk in every move you make and every player you acquire. Some players have more than others, but as one of my friends always says “every player is just an ACL away.” While this is clearly stated in a facetious tone, there’s a harsh truth to it. As you will learn in this developmental journey, the deeper you get into football and following prospects from the beginning of their career, the more talent you’ll see drop off.

This brings me to my next point.

If you see talent, even just a few plays, allow yourself to get excited and take notice. I did it with two players last year, running backs Brendan Bigelow and Melvin Gordon. One of those names is getting Heisman hype and could be the top running back of 2015. The other is hanging by a thread with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after going undrafted. I was ALL IN on both.

Brendon Bigelow in 2012:

Carries: 44
Yards: 431
Yards Per Carry: 9.8
Receptions: 7
Yards: 92
Total Touchdowns: 4

Melvin Gordon in 2012:

Carries: 62
Yards: 621
Yards Per Carry: 10.0
Receptions: 2
Yards: 65 T
Total Touchdowns: 4

An off-season passed and much hype was spread about both by me…

Brendan Bigelow in 2013:

Carries: 105
Yards: 421
Yards Per Carry: 4.0
Receptions: 34
Yards: 202
Total Touchdowns: 2

Melvin Gordon in 2013:

Carries: 206
Yards: 1609
Yards Per Carry: 7.8
Receptions: 1
Yards: 10
Total Touchdowns: 12

Quite a difference, huh? So, what happened to Bigelow in 2013?

Well, he played for California, a team that went 1-11 with their lone win coming against Portland State, a team that went 6-6 in the Big Sky Conference. Cal scored the least amount of points (175, 14.5 points per game) in the Pac-12 and lost nine of its’ 12 games by 17 or more points. The Golden Bears were a dumpster fire personified, and Bigelow was someone who got burned the most.

While all that was going on, Gordon was thoroughly enjoying his greener pasture. Not only the running lanes opened up by the hefty Wisconsin offensive line , but also a successful overall team that went 9-4 and scored the second most points in the Big Ten (453, 34.8 PPG).

When looking at things we know now, it’s silly to believe I ever had them around the same tier. So, the question is am I a fool for liking Brendan Bigelow? As with most things, the way you evaluate prospects should be an ever-changing process. You’ll never know it all; it’s an imperfect process judging imperfect players.

Sometimes our mistakes can be a great learning tool, so let’s take a look back at Bigelow and where I potentially went wrong.

First, the cut-ups…watch this and let it simmer for a few minutes:

[inlinead]:05 mark

This is obviously an incredible play. Bigelow takes the ball and avoids #34 in the backfield with ease, cutting to the left and beating his angle. He then makes his first cut into #18, somehow wrestling away from the tackle as other defenders bear down on him. As he’s still finishing off breaking the last tackle, he uses great anticipation with a spin move to avoiding #10 who’s sprinting full speed at him. After making the spin move he quickly recovers balance and shows great speed to finish off the 81-yard touchdown run, with nobody within 15 yards of him by the end of the run. That is a special play.

:50 mark

This is my favorite play, and what got me the most excited about Bigelow’s future. Here, he takes the handoff from the shotgun and instantly has to deal with #43 who was completely unblocked. Bigelow easily beats that defender with pure speed and subtle movement to avoid the angle. He then sharply cuts back inside seeing the field completely and noticing he has three players blocking for him. His greatest skill is his vision to see what angles the defenders are talking and then making the necessary movements to beat it, whether it’s through subtle jukes, spin moves or pure speed. When you first see Bigelow’s second cut to the outside, it doesn’t make much sense, but a second later, you see that #6 had beaten one of the Cal blockers and would have most likely been a big issue. Once he knows he’s past #6, he makes another deadly cut back in, playing with defenders and throwing off angles. Finally, Bigelow realizes the play is over and runs out of bounds after a 14-yard gain, saving his body. Those cuts reminded me a ton of another former Cal player, Jahvid Best.

4:10 mark

Bigelow shows off some of his versatility, lining up at wide receiver. As the play starts, Cal shows their hand and with an obvious screen. Two UCLA players see this early on and are bearing down on Bigelow as he begins to move downfield. In fact, #99 is parallel to him at the 31-yard line when Bigelow catches the pass. He shows great ball skills as he catches the ball away and up with his hands, not letting it into his body like most running backs and even some receivers often do. Bigelow’s teammate, #1, does a solid job blocking defender #21, allowing Bigelow to get to full speed before the defender has a chance to try to bring him down. This is a play where Bigelow shows off great speed, and I’m not sure how many backs could take that run for a touchdown.

That 6:48 cut-up is littered with awesome cuts and even good interior or between the tackles running. Bigelow had special vision and awareness of defenders, as I mentioned before. Unfortunately, there are a few things BEYOND the tape I didn’t pay attention to.

2013 was the first year Jeff Tedford wasn’t California’s coach since 2001, and the program was in complete disarray. The writing was on the wall after 2010 and 2011 that things were snowballing downhill. After 2012, a 3-9 campaign, Tedford was let go and a complete rebuild was on the horizon. This is a danger zone for prospects of any sort as rebuilding programs don’t always have the current season on their mind, and rarely put players in good situations to succeed. The first thing that came to mind when thinking about the sinking California ship were some of the other players that came out of that program recently. Guys like Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones had instant impact in the NFL, showing major flashes of talent. Yet, they weren’t drafted highly either, and you have to wonder if going to California had something to do with that.

Bigelow is listed as 180 pounds on his ESPN page, the same he was listed in college. It’s very rare that a back that small finds fantasy relevance. Not that it’s out of the question, but my assumption he could bulk up to 190 was obviously optimistic

Bigelow had a major injury in his past that I wasn’t aware of. He tore his ACL his junior year in high school and had struggled with other injuries heading into 2013.

Things like team situation and coaching weren’t much of a concern to me before the 2013 season, so this was real eye opener. You want players in stable situations. Talent is a major factor, but it’s not everything. A guy like Melvin Gordon is one of the safer running back prospects to come along in recent years. He has the talent and is part of an extremely stable college football program.

There was more writing on the wall for both of these players than I was aware of. While it hurts to have drafted Bigelow in a league or two, I took it as a great opportunity to learn and grow.

All that considered, and with team situation now part of my evaluation process, here’s a group of small sample size of players I’m buying headed into 2014.

Running Backs:

Here are the criteria needed for players to make the list:

School had six or more wins in previous season
Can’t be a senior heading into the upcoming season
At least seven yards per carry
Must have under 100 rushes (minimum of 20)
At least 8% of touches went for touchdowns
Must weigh over 190 pounds
Must be from a BCS conference

The list of players who’ve met the above criteria in recent years is impressive.

Melvin Gordon (2012)
Eddie Lacy (2010 and 2011)
Andre Ellington (2009)
Jahvid Best (2007)
Ben Tate (2006)
Marshawn Lynch (2004)

Name	College	ATT	YDS	YPR	REC	YDS	YPC	TOTAL TDS
Derrick Henry	Alabama	36	382	10.6	1	61	61.0	4
Kenyan Drake	Alabama	92	694	7.5	12	135	11.3	9
Terrence Magee	LSU	86	626	7.3	6	49	8.2	8
Dwayne Washington	Washington	47	332	7.1	1	5	5.0	4
Corey Clement	Wisconsin	67	547	8.2	1	9	9.0	7
Corey Grant	Auburn	66	647	9.8	4	8	2.0	6
Karlos Williams	Florida St	91	730	8.0	8	63	7.9	11

The order I’d pick them?

Derrick Henry
Corey Clement
Corey Grant
Karlos Williams
Kenyan Drake
Terrence Magee
Dwayne Washington

Wide Receivers:

Criteria to generate list:

School had six or more wins in previous season
Can’t be a senior heading into the next season
At least 17 yards per catch
Under 50 catches (minimum of 15)
At least 10% of catches went for touchdowns
Must be from a BCS school (subtract the Big Ten)

Highlights from previous seasons

Justin Hunter (2011 and 2010)
Josh Gordon (2010)
Michael Floyd (2009 and 2008)
Dwayne Bowe (2005)
Calvin Johnson (2004)

(Jimmy Graham also fit, but he isn’t a wide receiver!)

Name	College	REC	YDS	YPC	TDS
Leonte Carroo	Rutgers	28	478	17.1	9
Mekale McKay	Cincinnati	16	485	30.3	7
Devon Cajuste	Stanford	28	642	22.9	5
Sammie Coates	Auburn	42	902	21.5	7
Shaq Roland	South Carolina	25	455	18.2	5
Breshad Perriman	Central Florida	39	811	20.8	4