The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. I have two draft-related questions: first, would you take a receiver or Eric Ebron at pick 1.03 if you had need at both tight end and receiver? Also, where in a three-round rookie draft would you draft free agents Toby Gerhart and Travis Kelce? – JD in Georgetown
To the first part of your question, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Detroit rookie tight end Eric Ebron could be in play for you at pick 1.03. He remains the consensus top pick at his position, and was drafted into an explosive offense with the only “competition” coming from underwhelming talents in both Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria. Simply put, it’s a near-perfect marriage of talent and situation.
With that said, I still believe it might be a bit of a reach. Though the correlation remains far from linear, according the May ADP data Ebron is being selected as the ninth overall rookie, lending credence to the belief you could likely snare him a bit later in your rookie draft. Instead of selecting Ebron at pick 1.03, I’d attempt to trade back to the 1.05-1.07 range, perhaps picking up an additional second round pick in the process – this should ensure you’ll still get your man, along with some extra draft ammunition.
With regards to the second part of your query, I’m slowly but surely coming around on Jaguars running back Toby Gerhart. While no one will ever convince me he’s a dynamic talent, there’s certainly something to be said for the potential of 300-plus touches – after all, players like Le’Veon Bell and Zac Stacy parlayed volume alone into dual standings as dynasty RB1’s. Given the unsettled nature of the rookie running backs following Bishop Sankey and Carlos Hyde, I think you could make a case for Gerhart being an early to mid second round pick.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is a bit trickier. He essentially redshirted his rookie season due to microfracture surgery, and still has yet to take the field in organized team activities. Given the uncertainty surrounding his injury, as well as the depth of the 2014 draft, I’d be loath to part with anything more than a mid third round selection.
2. My league only allows us to keep 15 keepers, so in a 10-team league it is not a deep roster at all. I own Frank Gore, so last year I drafted Marcus Lattimore with the hope he could be the heir-apparent. Now with Carlos Hyde in the mix is it time for me to trade Lattimore? I will have to decide between keeping Lattimore or Jeremy Maclin, so I’d like to trade whichever one I don’t keep. – Gary in VA
When the 49ers selected running back Marcus Lattimore in the fourth round of last year’s draft it was viewed as a luxury pick. The prevailing notion at the time was it would take a year for the former Gamecock to finish rehabbing from his gruesome collegiate knee injury, but that he could potentially be ready come 2014. Unfortunately, as we all know too often the best laid plans of mice, men and football executives can often go awry.
A little over a month ago Lattimore admitted he’s not all the way back from his injury, physically or mentally. Only a few short days later San Francisco used their second round pick on ball carrier Carlos Hyde. Frank Gore should remain the lead dog in the 2014 committee, but given their respective draft statuses it’s fair to wonder if Hyde now has the upper hand on Lattimore to be next in line.
The fantasy community has certainly taken notice. Lattimore’s May ADP of 111.7 is nearly three rounds later than his April ADP of 80.8, when he was viewed as a late seventh round selection. He’s clearly not without value, but the pendulum has shifted away from his previous lofty draft status.
As such I’d advise you against trading Lattimore. It might seem counterintuitive, but seeing as you’re talking about your last keeper I’d rather attempt to gain more value in any potential trade. With Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin, I believe you can accomplish just that.
It’s my opinion that Maclin benefits more from the team he plays for than he does his actual talent level. He has yet to record 1,000 yards in a single season, and will be fighting with Riley Cooper, Jordan Mathews, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles for targets on a team that only passed the ball 50.4% of the time in 2013. Continuing, due to the transient nature of his one-year contract it’s entirely possible, dare I say likely he’ll be playing elsewhere come 2015. I don’t believe he’ll make good on his seventh round ADP, and would rather sell him at that inflated value.
[inlinead]3. I am desperate at receiver and have both Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. Is it time to sell either of these smaller, speed-oriented backs high since their workloads are increasing? Next year’s running back class looks thorough to say the least. I also own Darren Sproles, Bernard Pierce, Bobby Rainey and Mark Ingram. – Sean in CO
Similar to Lattimore above, I think all you can really do with Ravens running back Ray Rice is sit and wait. Mired in recent legal trouble (with a suspension looming) and coming off the worst year of his career, Rice’s value is at an all-time low. With that said I think he’ll remain the Baltimore ball carrier to own for the majority of the coming season, and if his game turns around I believe you’ll be able to net a greater return come fall.
On the other hand, McCoy sits atop the fantasy world. He easily led the league in rushing last year while putting up the second best yards-per-carry average of his career, while also playing all 16 games for only the second time. According to the May ADP he’s viewed as dynasty’s most desirable ball carrier, as well as a first round selection.
So if you wanted to make a trade my choice would be McCoy, but I don’t agree with your reasoning. “Shady” is just 25 years old and only has 1,149 NFL carries to his name, leading me to believe his has multiple years of top-end production ahead of him. Given coach Chip Kelly’s predilection towards running the ball, I view McCoy’s volume as a bonus, not a cause for concern.
Instead of dealing one of dynasty’s top assets why not attempt to trade Darren Sproles, Bernard Pierce or Mark Ingram instead? If need be you can couple them with a future pick in order to move into the late first round or early second of your rookie draft, where depth dictates a potential stud receiver could be there waiting for you. This represents the best case scenario to me, allowing you to keep McCoy while still building up your weakest position.
And now for a lightning round…
4. In my 12-team non-PPR league I’ve been offered the following trade: give Montee Ball, Zac Stacy, Josh Gordon and Brian Hartline for Doug Martin, Mike James, Calvin Johnson and Alec Ogletree. We start two running backs, three receivers and a FLEX. For an idea on IDP value in our league, Ogletree was tied for 10th at linebacker and 39th out of all running backs, receivers and linebackers. – Patches O’Houlihan in Ireland
I’d absolutely pull the trigger on this one. In my opinion Doug Martin and Calvin Johnson represent the two best pieces in this deal, and you’re also able to rid yourself of the head-case that is Cleveland receiver Josh Gordon. It’s true that running backs possess more value in a non-PPR format, but Montee Ball and Zac Stacy both remain overpriced question marks in a dynasty format. Adding in an excellent linebacker prospect like Alec Ogletree and this is a slam-dunk to me.
5. I own both Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon and I want to move one of them this off-season. Who would you rather hang on to and who would you move? Who carries the higher value (both actual and perceived) and who will net the most return? – JBFootball in the South
When it comes to the league’s drug policy, there’s seemingly nothing separating Jaguars receiver Justin Blackmon from Gordon. Both remain in phase three of the program and each seems primed to miss the 2014 season. However, in my opinion the similarities end there – Gordon is bigger, faster and in only his second season led the league in receiving (in 14 games, no less). Blackmon has flashed potential on a sporadic basis, but has yet to put together any kind of stretch of greatness. I think you can still get 70 cents on Gordon’s dollar, so if you’re looking to sell he’d be my choice.
6. I have picks 1.01, 1.02 and 1.05 – considering the following roster would you still go with Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans at 1.01 and 1.02: Matt Ryan, Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Andre Ellington, Joique Bell, Randall Cobb, Tavon Austin, T.Y. Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald, Justin Hunter, Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron). I was also considering Eric Ebron with 1.02 as well. – Matt in WV
Barring a non-standard format (superflex, tight end premium, etc.) I believe Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans should be the first two picks in every draft. They were the first two non-quarterback skill position players selected in the NFL draft, and also possess the highest ceilings of any draftee. There’s a great possibility you’ll be able to snag Ebron at pick 1.05, but even if you didn’t have the additional first rounder my advice wouldn’t change – given the appreciation of young assets, Watkins and Evans easily bring the most value to your roster.
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