NFL Draft Review: AFC North IDP Winners and Losers
Each year during the NFL Draft there are winners and losers in terms of fantasy value. Nowhere is that more evident than in the IDP world. A premier defensive end drafted to a 3-4 team can kill his IDP value but on the flip side, a premier pass rushing outside linebacker drafted to a 4-3 defense can see his value increase. Just like we have with the offense, we are going to look at each division’s IDP Winners and Losers from the NFL Draft – today we’ll focus on the AFC North.
Winners
Rey Maualuga, MLB CIN
Somewhat surprisingly, the Bengals neglected to add anyone to push Maualuga in the middle of their defense. Even though Vontaze Burfict is the linebacker to own in Cincinnati, Maualuga will maintain LB3 value in tackle heavy leagues.
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Darqueze Dennard, CB CIN
Dennard could conceivably be the team’s top corner when week one rolls around. Leon Hall is recovering from his second Achilles injury but remains ahead of schedule. Rookie cornerbacks are usually targeted heavily to begin with until they can prove themselves but if he’s asked to cover Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown and (possibly) Josh Gordon, he’s going to be baptized by fire. His tackle opportunities will give him a high floor at the cornerback position. His elite ball skills will give him a high ceiling in addition to.
Christian Kirksey, ILB CLE
Kirksey definitely benefited by landing in Cleveland. He’s an incredibly athletic, fast linebacker who projects as a day one starter next to Karlos Dansby now that D’Qwell Jackson has joined the Indianapolis Colts. His 6’2”, 235 pound frame with 4.5 sec wheels will be a hot commodity in IDP drafts. He has the potential to put up surprising numbers on a team looking to play grind it out, ground and pound football this year.
Justin Gilbert, CB CLE
Much like Darqueze Dennard in Cincinnati, Gilbert should see plenty of targets in year one but for a slightly different reason, Joe Haden. Arguably one of the league’s top three corners, Haden is a true shutdown corner who takes other team’s number one wide receivers out of the game – that kind of talent forces teams to focus their attack elsewhere and that means plenty of targets for Gilbert.
Timmy Jernigan, DT BAL
It’s difficult to get excited about a defensive tackle, but Jernigan lands in an ideal situation. The Ravens have a versatile defensive front seven featuring established vets like Haloti Ngata, Chris Canty, Daryl Smith, Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, but they also have young up-and-comers like Kapron Lewis-Moore, C.J. Mosley, Courtney Upshaw and Arthur Brown. This allows them to seamlessly transition between 3-4 and 4-3 alignments. The attention everyone else commands will give Jernigan plenty of one on one opportunities to bull rush from the inside of both alignments. Even though he’ll most likely start the season in a rotation with Brandon Williams, but most definitely offers the greatest upside of the two.
Terrence Brooks, FS BAL
With only the unimpressive and injury prone Darian Stewart in front of him, Brooks has a pretty clear path to playing time in Baltimore. Brooks is a jack of all trades type of free safety with the ability to blitz and play centerfield. He’ll be a player to keep an eye if he can lock down the starting gig early in training camp.
Ryan Shazier, ILB PIT
Immediately following the draft, I wasn’t sure if they intended to play him on the inside or the outside. Not only are they planning on playing him inside, they are giving him Lawrence Timmons’ spot as the featured linebacker. His speed and versatility will be perfect for the Steelers and IDP leaguers alike. He could flirt with low LB1 numbers as a rookie but shouldn’t have any problems maintaining strong LB2 numbers right away.
Lawrence Timmons, ILB PIT
How can Shazier and Timmons both be considered winners you ask? Easy, Timmons now has someone able to man the middle and produce so the Steelers can move him around and attack more. Look for Timmons to see his sack total increase this season as he rushes the quarterback more often from both the inside and out. He’ll likely see his tackle numbers dip a bit with Shazier’s presence, but I expect it to offset with the addition of more big plays.
Losers
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB CIN
Kirkpatrick continues his slide down the depth chart and into draft bust territory. He entered the league coming out of Alabama with a beaten, broken down body and has never been able to overcome it. With the addition of Dennard and the presence of Terence Newman and Pacman Jones, he’ll simply provide depth.
Buster Skrine, CB CLE
Skrine was a solid option last season in leagues requiring more than one starting cornerback. He was a top 25 option in just about any type of scoring system, but will now defer to the rookie, Justin Gilbert. All is not lost as Skrine will still see the field in nickel situations, but anyone looking for a repeat performance from 2013 will be hugely disappointed.
Craig Robertson, ILB CLE
Robertson’s play dipped in 2013 after putting some solid, if unspectacular, play on tape in 2012 as an undrafted free agent rookie. He was stretched thin as a starter and saw his dynasty IDP value tank when the Browns signed Dansby and then drafted Kirksey. If you’re holding Robertson, I would feel comfortable cutting him loose and adding someone with more upside.
C.J. Mosley / Arthur Brown, ILB BAL
On the surface this was a bit of a head scratcher. The team just re-signed Daryl Smith and has second year player Arthur Brown ready to step in but they couldn’t resist the opportunity to add Mosley. He should step into the starting role next to Smith right away while keeping Brown in a rotational reserve role. His IDP value would have gone through the roof if he were drafted by a team like Tennessee, Denver or Cincinnati. Instead, these players will eat into each other’s playing time and dulling their IDP value.
Darian Stewart, FS BAL
It didn’t take the Ravens long to re-think their stance on Stewart. When they signed him, they stated they viewed him as a starter and were “excited” to have him. They then went out and promptly spent a third round draft pick on Terrence Brooks. Stewart isn’t roster worthy for IDP purposes.
Vince Williams, ILB PIT
Williams’ sleeper appeal all but evaporated when the Steelers selected Ryan Shazier. He was already stretched thin in pass coverage but held up reasonably well versus the run. His future will be on special teams and as a key reserve.
The Steelers Pass Rush
There is a symbiotic relationship between a team’s pass rush and its coverage unit. When one thrives the other usually does too. When one struggles the other usually does too. Unfortunately for Steeler Nation I don’t see either unit performing well enough to carry the other. Ike Taylor and Cortez Allen aren’t going to lock down receivers long enough for guys like Jason Worilds, Jarvis Jones, Cameron Heyward or Stephon Tuitt to get to the quarterback. Conversely, I don’t see these players winning their battles to force quarterbacks into bad enough throws for the secondary to pounce on. The Steelers are eventually going to have to invest in this secondary.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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