NFL Draft Review: AFC West Winners and Losers

Like every division in football, the AFC West had its share of veteran winners and losers based on the results of the 2014 NFL Draft. Let’s review the new landscape of dynasty fantasy football from the division that boasted one of last year’s Super Bowl participants.

Winners

Peyton Manning, QB DEN

The Broncos spent a second round pick on Cody Latimer, a wide receiver with good size, solid hands and excellent leaping ability (39-inch vertical). Latimer is fast as well, clocking a 4.44 40 yard dash at his Pro Day. Latimer is a red-zone option and stands to benefit greatly with Manning targeting him. It wouldn’t surprise me if Manning sticks around for the next two or more years, as he needs almost 7,000 yards to pass Brett Favre as the all- time NFL leader. The Broncos also grabbed a solid offensive line prospect, Michael Schofield, in round three.

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Montee Ball, RB DEN

Arguably no other NFL running back had as nice an off-season, as Ball’s was highlighted by Knowshon Moreno leaving for South Beach. The Broncos didn’t draft a single running back, showing confidence in its new featured runner. Ronnie Hillman is buried in the dog house, so this doesn’t change much with his value. I still like C.J. Anderson a lot and think he could rise up if Ball struggles. Still, there is no doubting Ball has a golden opportunity to replace Moreno and has a shot at a top five season for his fantasy owners.

Jamaal Charles, RB KC

It looks like Charles can look forward to another year of 300+ touches. The Chiefs took De’Anthony Thomas in round four, but he projects as more of a Dexter McCluster replacement. Despite having a crying need for a wide receiver, the Chiefs didn’t draft a single one, thus allowing the check-down master Alex Smith to continue peppering Charles with targets. Maybe Charles will reach 100 targets as a receiver this year.

Travis Kelce, TE KC

The Chiefs must feel good about Kelce since they didn’t fill the tight end position in the draft. Anthony Fasano and Sean McGrath are pedestrian talents and Kelce has a strong opportunity to gain value in dynasty. Kelce is one of my favorite buys this off-season given his talent, cheap price and strong opportunity.

Oakland Running Backs

Okay, this is a reach. However, technically they won with the addition of Gabe Jackson, a very large man described as a powerful run-blocker. The Raiders offensive line needed an upgrade and Jackson has to help. Then again, will it even matter? Darren McFadden will end up on injured reserve and Maurice Jones-Drew’s tires got popped long ago. Maybe Latavius Murray steps up. Or maybe owners of Oakland running backs in dynasty will have massive migraine headaches. I think we break out the Tylenol.

Philip Rivers, QB SD

One of the most under-appreciated quarterbacks in dynasty, Rivers finished 2013 as a top five quarterback. The Chargers still don’t have his replacement on the roster, with career back-up Kellen Clemens (no threat) directly behind him on the depth chart combined with the failure to draft a quarterback this season. It looks like Rivers is a lock for top ten production for a few more years in a quarterback- friendly offense. Rivers is a solid buy-low in dynasty when considering his production and price.

Keenan Allen, WR SD

The Chargers did draft a wide receiver (Tevin Reese), but waited until round seven to do so. I like Reese and think his speed could give him sneaky value to the Chargers and dynasty owners. Still, there were rumblings pre-draft about the Chargers taking a wide receiver highly in the draft and that just didn’t materialize. Allen looks like the clear top target for Rivers. He finished in the top 20 of wide receivers despite having by far the fewest number of targets (101). I expect Allen’s targets to rise and given his sterling catch percentage (70%), I think he finishes in the top ten at his position for fantasy production this year.

Losers

Dwayne Bowe, WR KC

Bowe is a talented player in a bad spot. He gets a downgrade for a few reasons. Alex Smith is still his quarterback and might even get an extension. With big-armed Zach Mettenberger still on the board, the Chiefs instead went with Aaron Murray, a quarterback prospect with limited arm strength and athletic ability. De’Anthony Thomas was picked in round four and might also take targets away from Bowe, given Smith has a love for check-downs. Bowe better hope the light bulb turns on for Tyler Bray or Chase Daniel.

Matt Schaub, QB OAK

Schaub entered this category the minute he signed with the Raiders. Inexplicably, it got worse. The Raiders drafted Derek Carr in round two. If Schaub had a sliver of dynasty value, that just got erased. Carr will be starting soon enough, relegating Schaub to back-up duties and the dynasty waiver wire.

Wes Welker, WR DEN

Let’s see. Welker has concussion issues, is 33 years old and will be a free agent in 2015. The Broncos invested lots of money in Emmanuel Sanders and drafted Latimer. Welker should have a solid 2014 season if he can stay healthy, but his long-term value in dynasty took another hit.

Andre Caldwell, WR DEN

Caldwell didn’t have much dynasty value. Still, he did manage to post eleven receptions, 113 receiving yards and two touchdowns combined over his last three games of 2013. His sleeper status was perking up. Unfortunately, the Broncos drafted Latimer and signed Sanders. Say goodbye to Caldwell in dynasty.

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