Seven Rookies Being Overdrafted
You can almost smell it in the air. It’s drafting season!
This is the time of year when all of us sprint around the Internet trying to find the latest bit of info as the timer is ticking on out pick. We frantically text and email other leaguemates trying to make a deal to move up for our latest man crush or to slide back to pick up some extra picks after getting sniped on “your guy.”
It is also the time of year when the hype train goes into full effect on some players while others get virtually ignored by the mainstream community. This presents a rather interesting dichotomy of some players being overdrafted while others fly under the radar and become great deals. The owners who can tell which players fall into each category are the ones who can manipulate their draft and come out ahead.
Prime examples of players getting over hyped and overdrafted last year are players like Latavius Murray, Zach Sudfeld, Kenbrell Thompkins and Marcus Lattimore. For one reason or another, these players were being drafted in a position where I don’t think they will give a return on the investment near what was paid for them. Owners who spent second or even first round picks on some of those players are almost certainly regretting their choice as they passed on players like Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams and Zach Ertz.
From what I’ve seen in my drafts, mock drafts, twitter discussions and forum posts, here’s my current list of 2014 rookies who I feel are being overdrafted at the current point in time. The “hype round” is where I’ve seen the player drafted or heard realistic conversations about where someone would take the player. The “value round” is the point in the draft where I think the player would actually represent a decent chance at producing some kind of return on par with the value of the pick. Another way to look at it is the “value round” is the point in the draft when I would stop considering that player a major reach, even if I wouldn’t have made the pick at that point in time.
For the record, I’m assuming PPR scoring and a 12 team league. So when I say the late second round, I’m talking about picks 22-24. Adjust accordingly for different sized leagues.
Ka’Deem Carey, RB CHI
Hype Round – Early second round
Value Round – Third round
Leading up to the draft, there were some in the fantasy community who had Carey as one of, if not their top running back. I never felt he was at the level of a top running back and his slide into the fourth round of the NFL Draft seems to signal NFL teams don’t think he is either. Landing behind unquestioned bell cow Matt Forte further destroys his value. Even with the draft day slide and the terrible situation, there are still those who feel he is ultra-talented and will reach for him at the top of the second round. I’ll give those people points for sticking to their beliefs, but I think it is a major reach.
The supporters of Carey talk about his massive production in college and his skill set being a fit in the Bears’ offense. They are also quick to point out Forte’s age. Personally, I feel Carey’s production in college was more a product of the system he was in than him being an NFL caliber running back. In terms of his skills fitting with what the Bears do on offense, Carey does catch the ball well, but that is just one piece of what Forte does. Should Forte go down with an injury, I don’t think Carey could step in and be the only back to replace him. He could be a part of the committee, but that’s about it. As for the long term, Forte’s contract goes for two more seasons, which corresponds to him turning 30. I fully expect him to finish out his contract and maybe even sign a 1-2 year extension. This means Carey is a long term prospect. I think the Bears are likely to draft a starting running back in the next year or two to be the guy of the future and Carey is just a career backup.
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Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE
Hype Round – Late first round
Value Round – Late second or early third
I like Crowell. I really do. However, even I can’t advocate taking him anywhere near the first round. Even the very late second round is making me feel a little bit uncomfortable, but I can understand taking a shot on the upside at that point in time. Crowell has talent, that’s for sure. His situation in Cleveland is unsettled, meaning there is a chance he could beat out Ben Tate and Terrance West. Tate’s contract is only for two seasons with no guaranteed money after the first year. He isn’t going to be handed the starting job, leaving the door open for one of the rookies to step up.
If he is a talented running back and has a shot at being a starter right away for a team which will run the ball a lot, why isn’t he worth a late first? First off, while I like Crowell, I love West. It isn’t a sure thing in my mind which one is the more talented back. In an even competition, West just might beat out Crowell. Combine that with all of the issues which made Crowell go undrafted, and you need to consider the risk involved with this selection. If you’re a big gambler with your draft picks, go for it. You do need to realize the odds are stacked against Crowell being successful, though. Chances are your pick on him is going to be a wasted one. That’s okay if it is a third round pick, but not if it is a first round selection.
Davonta Freeman, RB ATL
Hype Round – Middle second round
Value Round – Middle to late third round
Let me preface this by saying I’ve never been a strong believer in Freeman’s skills transitioning to the NFL. He’s a jack of all trades as he can run inside and outside as well as catch the ball. The problem is he doesn’t really do any of these items at the level of an NFL starter. To me, he is little more than an NFL backup level of talent.
Then he was drafted by Atlanta and shares a depth chart with a soon to be 31-year old Steven Jackson and the uninspiring Jacquizz Rodgers. This has a lot of people flocking to Freeman as a solid pick in the second round because the opportunity is right for him. I remember the last time a running back with jack of all trade type skills was drafted into a good situation and his draft stock skyrocketed because of it. His name was Daniel Thomas. At least Thomas was a second round selection in the NFL Draft. Out of the top 30 running backs (those who have produced RB2 or better numbers) over the last three years, only six of them were drafted in the fourth round or later – that puts the odds against Freeman, even if I did like his talent level.
Storm Johnson, RB JAX
Hype Round – Early second round
Value Round – Middle to late third round
The former Knight has a cool name, I’ll give him that much. He is also a big bruising running back at 6’0” and 210 pounds. He landed in a great spot as well with the Jaguars depth chart only containing the names of players who have been backups up to this point in their career. The situation is good, but we need to keep in mind there was a reason Johnson didn’t get drafted until the seventh round of the NFL Draft.
One of the big reasons for Johnson’s slide is his lack of speed and agility. He is primarily a straight ahead runner who lacks the ability to make moves while at top speed. When your top speed is already slower than most, needing to slow down to make a defender miss isn’t a good thing. The other major concern for him is ball security. In college, he fumbled at a rate of roughly once every 45 carries. For an NFL lead running back, that would be every other game. With NFL defenders being even better at stripping the ball than college defenders, that isn’t going to fly. Even with the subpar talents in front of him, I think his chances of being fantasy relevant are pretty slim.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
Hype Round – Middle first round
Value Round – Early second round
Some people are going to look at this and wonder what is wrong with me. The difference between the middle of the first round and the early second round is only a few picks. How can that be overdrafting? The issue comes down to my belief that the first round of this year’s draft is pretty much a lock. The order those players go in is up for debate, but we pretty much know who should be going in the first round of pretty much every draft (unless there are special scoring rules of course!). You’re going to see Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Cooks, Hyde, Sankey, Matthews, Robinson, Ebron, Lee and Adams as the first eleven players drafted in every league. Benjamin just isn’t at their level.
Once they are gone, things start to open up a bit and I can understand someone going with Benjamin. He has size, which counts for more than some people want to admit. The ability to go up and over defenders and to box them out with a big frame is becoming more and more important in today’s NFL. He’s also playing for a team desperate for receivers (be honest, how many Carolina receivers can you name without looking?). The problem with Benjamin is he isn’t a complete receiver. He won’t be able to fill all of the roles the Panthers are going to need him to fill as a rookie and possibly ever. I think he was overdrafted by the Panthers and he is getting pushed up fantasy draft boards because of his situation.
Cody Latimer, WR DEN
Hype Round – Late first round
Value Round – Middle second round
Much like Benjamin, Latimer just doesn’t belong in that group of eleven players. Before I go any further, I want you to try something. Go back and look at rookie drafts, rankings and everything else from the end of the college season until the end of March. Where do you see Latimer’s name in the discussions? The answer is in most cases you don’t. Latimer wasn’t anywhere near the top two rounds of the NFL Draft a few months ago because his performance on the field just doesn’t fit with that caliber of player. Then in April, following his pro-day where he measured in at 6’2” and 215 pounds while running a 4.52 second 40 yard dash, he was suddenly in the discussion for being a first round pick in the NFL Draft? Unless Indiana played some games in April and didn’t tell anyone, something doesn’t seem right here.
I’m not saying Latimer is void of talent. I’m just saying he doesn’t deserve all the hype he is getting. He is a good athlete, but he doesn’t play as fast as he ran at his pro day. He is also still learning how to play the receiver position after focusing on basketball for much of his early years. The other problem I have with him is people are looking at him as a “Peyton Manning receiver.” With the refinement Latimer needs and the players ahead of him, how much overlap will there really be between Latimer’s career and Manning’s career? He’s a nice second round pick, but the hype is building a bit too much on him for my liking.
Colt Lyerla, TE GB
Hype Round – Early second round
Value Round – Late third round
Like a lot of leagues, several of mine are or have been in the process of drafting over the last few weeks. One of my leagues happened to be in the early second round when news broke of Lyerla signing with the Packers. You can guess what happened. The guy on the clock snatched him up and I nearly fell off my chair. Lyerla is a talent, but the early second round?!?
I’m not going to rehash the entire discussion with Lyerla because Ken did a wonderful job of laying out the whole situation in his article recently. Completely ignoring the risks involved is foolish. There was a reason he wasn’t signed by any team for days after the draft and it was only once he was given a try out that he was signed. He’s going to get only one chance, and even sneezing on the coach could send him packing. Tread lightly.
I’ll be back later with a look at a few players I feel are being vastly undervalued by the community as a whole. These are players who might present solid opportunity as very nice value picks.
Who else do you see being over-drafted right now?
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021