Depth Charges
Though I’m all for playing the contrarian and swimming against the tide if the need arises, let’s face facts – at this juncture of the dynasty season there’s no avoiding the dreaded Rookie Fever. With the NFL Draft in the rearview and rookie drafts beginning, these professional neophytes have clearly moved to the forefront of our dynasty consciousness. In effect, the arrival of these future freshmen signifies the dawning of a new season, as well as new expectations.
As I’ve mentioned previously, however, there is a way to game the system by using your 2014 rookie picks as currency to obtain veteran players at a discount. After all, it stands to reason that if rookies are gaining value, several of the league’s “old guard” must be losing it. Indeed, in the “what have you done for me lately?” world of fantasy football, veterans who have perhaps shown a wart or two have fallen out of in esteem in favor of players who haven’t yet had that chance.
Recently I’ve detailed how Rookie Fever can aid in landing members of the 2014 sophomore class, but I’m now going to take this tact a different route. Instead of looking towards undervalued guaranteed starters, I’m going to valuate the “other guys” rounding out your roster. In short, I’m talking about your bench depth.
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Sure, we’d all like to have a starting lineup filled with Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Jimmy Graham and the like, but unless you play in a total guppy league, that’s likely not feasible. Given that unlikelihood, it behooves us as owners to dig past our starting rosters and strengthen our lineups from A-Z. Given the prevalence of injuries, suspensions and even bye weeks, having a stockpile of players who can start in a pinch is a boon to your viability as a championship contender – the ability to get these players on the cheap is the metaphorical cherry on top.
In that spirit, I want to mention several players you should target right now to round out the core of you roster. As mentioned previously, each should come at a reduced cost if 2014 draft picks are used as the trading currency. To that end, consider the following table:
This chart above shows a breakdown of where the rookie selections fell according to the April ADP data. As an example, Sammy Watkins was the first receiver selected, and this selection occurred at an ADP value of 22.0. As such, that ADP value correlates to pick 1.01, and so on down the list (through four rounds).
Obviously a few disclaimers should be made. First, the April ADP data is slightly outdated, as the NFL Draft has come and gone – however, in my opinion that has only served to push rookie values higher and it’s possible this snapshot from a month ago is even less biased against veterans. Secondly, I’m aware that the ADP data isn’t a trade bible, but it definitively serves to act as a general guide for player valuation.
With that preamble in hand let’s get into it. Highlighted below are a series of running backs, receivers and tight ends who could both start for you if needed, and also serve as cost-effective trade pieces (I’m not including quarterbacks as there is a preponderance of options for 12-team leagues). For each player I’ll include his April ADP, the draft pick he correlates to and a brief synopsis.
Let’s get digging!
Danny Woodhead, RB SD (ADP = 163.70)
Don’t let the signing of Donald Brown scare you here – Woodhead remains the passing game maven. Though he’s no spring chicken (29 years old) Woodhead finished as the PPR RB12 in 2013. He was only held below four receptions in five games last year, providing a high enough floor that he shouldn’t tank your chances on any given week.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 3.04
Chris Ivory, RB NYJ (ADP = 174.70)
On pure talent alone, the list of ball carriers better than Ivory is shorter than you’d think. In addition to averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry for a Jets offense that couldn’t pass the ball, Ivory was amongst the league leaders in yards after contact. In games where he received at least 12 carries, he was only held below 4.2 yards-per-carry once. Though he comes with legitimate injury risk and won’t catch anything, I believe he’ll stave off Chris Johnson for touches as long as he’s healthy.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 3.05
DeAngelo Williams, RB CAR (ADP = 219.50)
Left for dead once again prior to the 2013 season, all Williams did was go on to finish as the PPR RB25, functioning as a high-end FLEX play in most leagues. Much like Woodhead there is a distinct end game in sight, as Williams recently turned 31. However, with a depleted stable of receivers I have no doubt Carolina will turn to their ground game and at the cost of a fourth rounder you’ll have a tough time finding cheaper production.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 4.04
Danny Amendola, WR NE (ADP = 146.50)
To be clear, I’m not the biggest Amendola fan out there. At this point last year he was one of the worst bargains in dynasty football as many of us were on the edge of our seats expecting the “next Wes Welker.” As we now know, Amendola continued his injury-prone ways, missing four games and playing hobbled in others. Hidden beneath that, however, was a career-best in yards-per-catch. With the depth chart far from settled and superstar Rob Gronkowski potentially missing time, Amendola could see a big bounce back.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 3.01
Brian Hartline, WR MIA (ADP = 152.80)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Hartline is no stranger to frequenting numerous “underrated” lists, but I defy you to find another back-to-back 1,000-yard receiver who could be had for the price of a third round pick. With at least four receptions in all but three games last year (excluding a week 17 clash with the Jets where he was injured), Hartline makes for a fine WR3 in a pinch. In fact, during the past two years he finished as the PPR WR27 and WR24. That’s the definition of value.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 3.02
James Jones and Rod Streater, WR OAK (ADP = 179.30 and 217.0)
Despite an, ahem, “limited” Oakland passing attack, Streater still managed to corral 60 receptions for 888 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the PPR WR33. Standing at 6’3” and 200 pounds, and entering only his third year in the league, what’s not to like about a player who can thrive despite the surrounding mediocrity? Considering his rawness as a collegiate player (49 total receptions on a run-first Temple team), I believe Streater will continue to grow.
Similarly, Jones appears ready to function as the other outside threat. Gone are the cozy confines of Lambeau Field, but in Oakland, Jones will be facing a much shorter depth chart. We know Jones has WR1 ability and he looks like a strong bet to improve upon a 2013 season that saw him finish as the PPR WR40.
2014 Draft Pick Costs: 3.05 and 4.04
Harry Douglas, WR ATL (ADP = 219.0)
Much like Hartline above, Douglas exited his first 1,000-yard season with little fanfare. Sure, his numbers can conveniently be attributed to circumstance as both Julio Jones and Roddy White missed time, but if reaching the 1K club was easy why didn’t more than 23 receivers accomplish that feat last year? Moreover, with the venerable Tony Gonzalez gone it’s expected Atlanta will turn to more 3WR sets, meaning Douglas should get his playing time regardless, along with a chance to replicate his 2013 successes.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 4.04
Delanie Walker, TE TEN (ADP = 188.8)
Perhaps this is more a result of the muddied tight end pool, but Walker’s breakout 2013 (60/571/6) was enough to see him finish as the PPR TE11 despite missing a game. In particular he finished the end of the season with a flurry, recording at least four receptions in five of his last seven games. The Titans didn’t draft a replacement and backup Taylor Thompson remains nothing more than a tease thus far. As such, Walker should be in for another season of solid, if uninspiring production.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 3.10
Jermichael Finley, TE GB (ADP = 223.50)
We all know Finley’s story by now. He was on pace for the best season of his to-date underwhelming career when a tragic neck injury knocked him out for the year. There are still worries he might not make it back, but recent reports are positive. In fact, despite his status as a free agent Finley’s name remains on his former Packers locker. At the current cost, Finley carries minimal risk and plenty of potential reward.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 4.05
Heath Miller, TE PIT (ADP = 228.7)
Despite wrecking his knee at the end of the 2012 season, Miller returned earlier than expected and posted reasonable stats (58/593/1) despite missing two games and playing at less than 100%. Though he’s 31 years old, he should be a year healthier in 2014 and the Steelers don’t have any viable in-house replacements. A high-end TE1 as recently as 2012, Miller’s upside dramatically outweighs his cost.
2014 Draft Pick Cost: 4.06
Conclusion
As fellow DLF’er Karl Safchick recently opined when we co-hosted the DLF Podcast, dynasty football is a lot like an onion – there are always more layers to peel back. Similarly, the players listed above might not precipitate the same type of recognition as the league’s elite, but they remain as cost-effective options were owners willing to dig a little deeper. And over a season-long war when the heavy artillery might run out, it could be these depth charges that ultimately help you win.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
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