DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

Karl Safchick

marshall

We’re entering the “calm before the storm” period in the NFL. The draft has concluded and training camp is still a far off light at the end of a long tunnel. Although in the dynasty world, rookie drafts are beginning and you’ll likely see more trades in the coming weeks than you will until the fantasy trade deadline approaches. While it’s commonplace to believe rookies are the only players of note right now, it’s actually the best time to acquire veterans. We’ll take a look at what’s going on with some of the bigger names in the sport this week.

Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

Earlier this week, the Chicago Bears signed Marshall to a three-year, $30 million contract extension. The new deal will hypothetically make him a member of the Bears through 2018.

Marshall has unjustly become an afterthought in many dynasty leagues. Many people will ask you to “sell your expiring assets.” The cold hard truth is, extraordinary athletes such as Marshall age more gracefully than the rest of us. Even some less talented players can be expected to drop off at 30, but Marshall is a rare breed. With rookie fever in full effect, now may be the perfect time to price check Marshall. He will likely outlast a few wide receivers that you’ll see drafted in the first round of your rookie mock. The moral of the contract extension story is the Bears see Marshall as a valuable asset over the next four years. You should, too.

Johnny Manziel, QB CLE

Manziel was given a small dose of reality in the NFL this week as his coach and general manager both stated Brian Hoyer is ahead of him on the depth chart. We know this is coachspeak, but it’s something to monitor. The Browns want Manziel to prove he deserves to be more than just the “face of the franchise.” In order to be a starting quarterback in the pros, you must earn it.

There’s no doubting Manziel will be given is opportunity in Cleveland, so do not let coach speak influence your decision. Many believe Maziel is the next Fran Tarkenton, while many others think he will be no better than Tim Tebow. Whether he becomes an MVP player may depend on his interest in becoming a quarterback rather than a celebrity.

Joique Bell, RB DET

Bell has not been participating in OTA’s this offseason because of a lingering knee injury. This isn’t the first we’ve heard about his knee as Bell dealt with the injury last season. Since the Lions were willing to give Bell a contract extension earlier this offseason, the knee injury isn’t believed to be serious.

He is still considered to be a low end RB2 in the short term. His limited upside and the Lions’ plan to split carries between he and Reggie Bush make him a weekly flex start at best. The good news is, if you’re in the market for a running back such as Bell, now’s the time to buy. Offering a low-end second rounder could net you a starting caliber player for the next few years.

[inlinead]Dwayne Allen, TE IND

The former Clemson Tiger turned Indianapolis Colt had hip surgery seven months ago. After missing the entire 2013 season, Allen is aiming for a comeback. By the time training camp starts, he should be considered 100%.

While Allen is on a team surrounded by pass catchers, he should actually be considered one of the best players on that Colts roster. His upside is limited only by the fact he’s the better blocking tight end than Coby Fleener. He’s a solid complementary piece to your roster, but don’t expect TE1 numbers unless he’s relieved of being opposite Fleener.

Aldon Smith, LB SF

The explosive linebacker for the 49ers plead no contest to DUI and three felony weapons charges on Wednesday. The NFL is expected to suspend Smith for multiple games, if not for the entire season.

This news comes as no surprise, and Rodger Goodell likely would have suspended Smith regardless. What this news does represent is the final nail in the coffin for most, if not all, of Smith’s 2014 campaign. If you play in an IDP league, you’re likely not trading Smith for anything of value at this point. He’s the type of player who you hang onto for hopes of future success.

Ray Rice, RB BAL

While Rice was lucky enough to escape the prospect of going to trial for his alleged assault on his fiancee, he will likely face discipline in the courthouse of the NFL commissioner. The prevailing thought is Rice will miss one or two games in 2014.

Rice was considered a first round startup pick in many dynasty drafts last year. Arguably, no one has seen their dynasty stock fall farther than he has. Not only is he facing NFL discipline, but he was clearly not effective last year. Missing two games doesn’t hurt his fantasy owners directly, but he’s missing a clear opportunity to gel with his offense. He is not suspended yet, so this is still a situation to monitor.

Colt Lyerla, TE GB

We’re starting to see a trend in the news this week, folks. The Green Bay Packers signed undrafted free agent Colt Lyerla this week.

One of the most difficult evaluations of a player is determining whether they will stay out of trouble. If Lyerla is able to learn that ability, he could become a great pass catching tight end in the NFL. If he finds his way to the Commissioner’s office, his pro career will likely be short.

Greg Little, WR OAK

There were high expectations in Cleveland when the Browns selected Little in the second round of the NFL draft just a few short years ago. Now the Browns have parted ways with the young receiver. The most interesting detail of Little’s release was the timing. Days after reports of an impending Josh Gordon suspension, the Browns deemed it necessary to release Little – they must have completely lost faith in his ability to become an NFL able wide receiver.

There isn’t much dynasty value to be had with Little. The Oakland Raiders receiving corps is crowded and Little will not likely do anything to stand out. He’s fine as an end-of-the-roster type player, but probably belongs on waiver wires.

Julio Jones, WR ATL

The Atlanta Falcons are taking every precaution when it comes to Jones. While he likely could participate in OTA’s, Jones will not be participating in any football activities until training camp after he fractured his foot for a second time last year. When healthy, Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. DLF’s own Scott Peak has done some interesting research on Jones I suggest you catch up on. For my money, I’m still considering him a top five receiver.

Bernard Pierce, RB BAL

Baltimore Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh stated this week that Pierce will likely be ready to play training camp. Pierce has missed May OTA’s with a shoulder injury, but the team does not believe it’s serious. If you’re cautious about Rice, now may be the time to buy Pierce. While both had a sub par 2013 season, I actually prefer Pierce’s running style to Gary Kubiak’s system.

Folks, do not forget about rookie fever. It’s real, it’s spreading and the CDC cannot do a thing about it. If you have a shot at a title this year, don’t be afraid to cash in on your rookie picks and pick up some cheap veterans.

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