NFL Draft Review: AFC South Winners and Losers

We’re blowing out the post-draft coverage on DLF and will be going through each division to cover winners and losers by team. We start with the AFC South.

Winners

Trent Richardson, RB IND

Richardson may be the biggest winner in the AFC South. Not only did the Colts avoid drafting another running back to compete with T-Rich, they drafted two offensive linemen to shore up a weak front. Richardson will be given every opportunity to reclaim the glory of his 2012 season.

Andrew Luck, QB IND

Luck is also a winner because the Indianapolis front office recognized a weakness on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. Da’Rick Rogers is nowhere close to a sure bet, Reggie Wayne is old and coming off of knee surgery and T.Y. Hilton is a very talented, yet small receiver. Enter Donte Moncrief. He is 6’2, 221 lbs and will make a sizeable impact in the Colts receiving game no later than 2015.

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Toby Gerhart, RB JAX

He’s is the man to own in the backfield for Jacksonville. The Jaguars brought him in via free agency and didn’t draft any immediate competition. They did draft running back Storm Johnson, but he doesn’t appear to have a day-one type of presence. If Blake Bortles does start, look for the Jaguars to lean more heavily on Gerhart’s shoulders.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB HOU

He appears to be the week one starter for Houston since they didn’t address the position until the fourth round when they drafted Tom Savage. Case Keenum should also have a shot, but with a new regime taking over, Fitzpatrick offers more assurance.

Garrett Graham, TE HOU

Graham’s value may have taken a hit to the untrained eye, but when the Texans drafted tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz, it made perfect sense. Let me introduce you to Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, part two. Now let’s hope Graham and Fiedorowicz can have half the success of the previously mentioned duo. New Texans head coach Bill O’Brien played a major role in developing two tight end sets in New England in 2010 when the tight end craze began to overtake the league. Graham is smaller and more athletic than Fiedorowicz and could play the joker role. The other Houston tight end, Ryan Griffin, is more capable of being used all over the field, but after Graham got an extension this off-season, it’s hard to imagine Griffin beating Graham out. I’m not saying either will live up to the Aaron Hernandez comparison, but they will get plenty of opportunities to leave their mark. The drafting of Fiedorowicz basically signals the beginning of a new era for the Texans offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick made good use of Delanie Walker in Tennessee last season and that may be another reason why he will be the day one starter.

Arian Foster, RB HOU

Foster is set for a big rebound this season. He’s finally healthy and his body actually got a break from the beating it has taken over the past three seasons. There is definitely potential for Foster to bounce back into the top five running back conversation for 2014. Ben Tate is now in Cleveland, so the Texans were a little thin in the backup department. They added an interesting running back prospect by the name of Alfred Blue in the sixth round. Blue is built like a large wide receiver (6’2, 225 lbs), but he has good instincts as a rusher. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, possesses good vision and is agile for his size. There are two big knocks on Alfred Blue, though. The first being he suffered a torn ACL in 2012 and the other being his upward running style. He doesn’t shy from contact and he is quick to make a defender pay, but he also takes more of a beating than is required. The running attack will lie squarely on Arian Foster’s back and if he goes down, the backup running back will get a good amount of work. Blue should have an opportunity to compete for that position this year.

Losers

Reggie Wayne, WR IND 

Wayne and Da’Rick Rogers seem to be the obvious losers for the Colts. Though the issue of his age was well established, Wayne was still very productive before going down in week seven of last season. Unfortunately, he will now be teaching his heir apparent while Rogers watches his competition (Moncrief) get better and better – that’s assuming Rogers makes it to training camp.

Shonn Greene, RB TEN

Bishop Sankey has become the new dynasty darling because he was drafted into a system that craves a lead back. Shonn Greene’s abilities are valuable, but they’re very limited and the new coaching regime led by Ken Whisenhunt needed their guy. They got him as Sankey will get plenty of opportunities to be a force in fantasy land. Greene should fall back into the niche he is good at – falling forward and getting first downs.

Jake Locker, QB TEN

Locker has been plagued with injuries year after year. Unfortunately for him, it may end up costing him the starting quarterback job. Locker has, at times, displayed poise and very good awareness on the field, but if he continues to be sidelined with injuries, expect rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger to quickly rise to the top of the depth chart. Thus far, Whisenhunt has only glowing comments to say about Mettenberger’s arm strength and his pocket presence. The end may be near for a talented, but fragile Locker. As a side note, the Titans also drafted offensive tackle Taylor Lewan to replace Michael Roos, who is in the final year of his contract. No one questions how legitimate the Titans front five are, but the quarterback they will be protecting is yet to be entirely determined.

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

Blackmon is the biggest loser as a result of this draft. This kid has absolutely thrown away everything. It is very sad, and as Jaguars owner Shahid Khan put it, “tragic.” Blackmon’s suspension is still intact and there is no sign of it coming down. The Jags refused to be held back by Blackmon, as they drafted not one, but two wide receivers to fill the void left in their receiving game. Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson will be asked to play early and often. As of now, Chad Henne is set to be the quarterback, but things could change quickly if newly drafted quarterback Blake Bortles has a good camp. It is rare for a player to be drafted #3 overall only to sit on the bench for a year.

Cecil Shorts, WR JAX

Shorts is entering the final year of his contract with the Jaguars. He has been a very nice receiving option over the past two seasons, but the recent draft from the front office may leave some writing on the wall for Shorts. That said, there are apparently talks of the Jags negotiating a contract extension with him – that would probably be a wise decision given the overall youth of the offense they’re building and the leadership he can offer.

Andre Johnson, WR HOU

Johnson has let his frustration be noticed. The 11-year veteran feels the team didn’t get better around him in this draft and it’s hard to argue against him. The position that held Houston back the most last season was the quarterback and General Manager Rick Smith didn’t feel it important enough to resolve it via the 2014 draft. Johnson may be working his way out of Houston, which may not be such a bad thing for dynasty owners. Let’s hope he finds a way to get out and end up on a real contender.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

DeAndre Hopkins is basically in the same boat as Johnson, but he doesn’t have the clout to voice his opinion publicly. There is one silver lining in all of this doom and gloom around the quarterback position and that is Ryan Fitzpatrick likes to throw deep. It usually gets picked off, but he’ll at least give Hopkins a chance to make a play.

Stay with us all off-season as we continue to break down the draft and share our thoughts on winners and losers from each division.

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