NFL Draft Review: The Top 20 IDP Rookies

Steve Wyremski

shazier

There’s still a lot of uncertainty with how many of these rookie IDPs will be utilized, but we have some indications from beat writers and the collective post-draft comments from coaching staffs. Here are my rookie IDP rankings based on what we know currently:

Note: Rankings are based on IDP scoring with a sack-to-tackle ratio of 3:1 or less (i.e., tackle heavy formats). Because of that, rush linebackers and sack specialists will be ranked lower in this list as compared to big-play leagues.

Take the target timing with a grain of salt as it’s highly dependent on the relative offensive / defensive scoring. These are to be used as a guideline. I’ve assumed a 12-team league with, literally, 3:1 sack to tackle scoring.

1. Ryan Shazier, ILB Steelers

According to the post-pick press conference with the Steelers’ coaching staff, Shazier will play inside linebacker. Some believe Shazier isn’t a great fit in the Steelers’s scheme, but he’s extremely explosive and possesses the ability to play every down immediately.

Target: Early to Mid 2nd Round

[am4show  have=’p2;p3;p4;p5;p6;’  guest_error=’sub_message’  user_error=’sub_message’ ]

2. CJ Mosley, ILB Ravens

Mosley is also expected to start immediately, but reports are that Arthur Brown will play subpackage snaps. If that happens, Mosley would be limited to a two-down role in 2014. The unfortunate part with that scenario is he’d have to wait until Daryl Smith moves along or Brown loses out on the subpackage snaps to achieve premium IDP linebacker status. With the three linebackers competing for snaps and Smith under contract for a few more years, if Brown wins the subpackage camp battle, Mosley could drop further down this list. Long-term, though, both Mosley and Brown are expected to be every down players.

Target: Mid 2nd Round

3. Khalil Mack, SLB Raiders

Playing the strongside will limit his upside, but Mack should be a fixture in the Raiders’ offense for years. He’s a cornerstone player. His role with the Raiders is already well documented and will be similar to that of Von Miller in Denver. Dennis Allen, who coached Miller in Denver, confirmed they’ll use Mack like they used Miller – that means he’ll stand up for two downs and play defensive end in passing situations. His sack numbers should be very solid as a result.

Target: Late 2nd 

4. Telvin Smith, WLB Jaguars

I must admit I’m not a huge fan of Smith’s, especially given his lack of explosiveness exhibited in his workouts and college production. I cited these as red flags when going through the linebacker rookie ratios, but he landed in an absolutely perfect situation. He’ll assume the weakside linebacker spot vacated by Russell Allen and should play every down immediately. If you’re comfortable assuming bust risk in hopes of a boom, you may want to consider bumping Smith over Mack.

Target: Early 3rd Round

5. Aaron Donald, DT Rams

The Geno Atkins comparisons are aplenty. Need more?

The addition of Donald to the Rams’ defensive line creates one of the most disruptive front four in the league. Donald should start immediately next to Michael Brockers and has the ability to be a top IDP defensive tackle option given how explosive he is and the fact that it’ll be virtually impossible to double anyone on that line. He’s one of the safest options in this draft class on the defensive side of the ball. What I love is his explosiveness. His explosion and college production ratios are some of the highest I’ve seen which puts him higher in my rookie rankings than most tackles typically are.

Target: Early to Mid 3rd Round

6. Christian Kirksey, ILB Browns

Kirksey enters the Browns linebacker group with fantastic coverage ability. That, accompanied with speed, will present him with the opportunity to play subpackage snaps immediately. Kirksey will compete with Craig Robertson in 2014 and given Robertson’sstruggles in coverage, don’t be surprised to see Kirksey win the job. The presumption that he wins a camp battle with Kirksey puts him over Barrow at this point. Kirksey has the opportunity to be Pettine’s 2014 Kiko Alonso.

Target: Late 3rd Round

7. Lamin Barrow, WLB/MLB Broncos

GM John Elway immediately ‘gushed’ about Barrow and it sounds like he’ll get every opportunity to compete with Nate Irving for the starting middle linebacker spot. Given Irving’s struggles, that may not be all that difficult to win. If Barrow wins that job, a huge opportunity awaits. He has the potential to play every down as Elway calls him “a versatile linebacker who can play Mike or Will positions [with] good toughness and instincts.” The Broncos hit the jackpot with Danny Trevathan in the sixth round of 2012 draft; maybe they did the same here. Elway certainly drafted Barrow with the intention he competes. There’s risk associated with Barrow, but given Irving’s NFL career to date, I’m confident in Barrow’s chances.

Target: Late 3rd Round

8. Demarcus Lawrence, DE Cowboys

The Cowboys needed help on the defensive line and they got it. Lawrence is the top defensive end option given that he’s one of the few to land in a favorable situation. George Selvie is on one side, but aging vets who will serve as short-term options are on the other. Scanning through the Cowboys post-pick comments, it’s clear they believe they now have an elite pass rusher who can immediately contribute and potentially replace Demarcus Ware (if that’s possible). Expect the rookie edge rusher to see a significant number of snaps immediately.

Target: Late 3rd to Early 4th Round

9. Calvin Pryor, SS Jets

Pryor can play center field or can patrol the box. Like Deone Buccanon, he’s a physical tone-setting strong safety. Many highlight Pryor’s tackling ability, but don’t boast about his coverage skills. Given his hard hitting nature, they’re overshadowed, but they do have them. Pryor played a lot of one-high safety at Louisville and he should do the same in the Jets’ scheme. Given the situation, he possesses the ability to be a top safety option for years.

Target: Early 4th Round

10. Deone Bucannon, SS Cardinals

Buccanon should have no issue winning the starting strong safety spot in Arizona. He’s a hard hitter who is comfortable playing close to the line of scrimmage. He needs to improve in coverage, but he covers a lot of ground. He should immediately see significant snaps and opportunity as a rookie.

Target: Early 4th Round

11. Scott Crichton, DE Vikings

He’s likely to begin his career as a situational pass rusher. With the underachieving Brian Robison a starter, expect Crichton to push for snaps. If there’s one consistent thing said about Crichton it’s the fact he’s a high motor player and that’s what the Vikings need given the flop free agency signing of Robison.

Target: Early to Mid 4th Round

12. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB, Texans

Clowney may be overdrafted on name recognition, but landing as a 3-4 outside linebacker will cap his IDP value in tackle heavy leagues. He’s clearly a double-digit sack candidate and can be an effective fantasy option, but as long as he’s an outside linebacker, his fantasy appeal in tackle heavy leagues will be limited. He’s higher than I typically have 3-4 outside linebackers, but is this high as he’ll likely be playing for years beyond many of the others on this list. All he’ll need is a scheme change like Mario Williams had and his fantasy value will shoot through the roof.

Target: Early to Mid 4th Round

13. Preston Brown, MLB Bills

Sure, Brandon Spikes was recently signed by the Bills to man the middle in the Bills new 4-3 defense, but Brown is known to be a prototypical 4-3 middle linebacker. He’ll enter the linebacker rotation with Spikes as a rookie, but he comes with long-term potential. Brown is a versatile player who is a solid tackler, blitzer, and capable in coverage.

Target: Mid 4th Round

14. Anthony Barr, SLB Vikings

As one of the many tweeners who will be used like Von Miller, expect Coach Mike Zimmer to send Barr after the quarterback more often than not. Many suggest that he’ll be James Harrison in Cincinnati under Zimmer – that will likely mean IDP mediocrity in tackle heavy leagues.

Target: Mid 4th Round

15. Kony Ealy, DE Panthers

With Greg Hardy’s off the field domestic violence issues, it’s possible Ealy sees snaps earlier than most expected. Regardless, with Hardy on a one-year deal, it’s a good bet that 2014 is a transition year for Ealy. If he shows promise, it’s likely that 2014 is a segue to Hardy’s exit from Carolina and the beginning of Ealy’s reign. He is a long-term play given the anticipated rotational role this season, but given the long-term promise, he’s a worthy target earlier in rookie draft. Be sure to keep an eye on Hardy’s situation. If it goes south, Ealy will rise.

Target: Mid 4th Round

16. Khairi Fortt, ILB Saints

According to Coach Sean Payton, Fortt will play weak inside linebacker. Fortt was a 4-3 weakside linebacker at Cal, but he shouldn’t have much of an issue transitioning to a 3-4 inside linebacker. The issue with Fortt is his injury history and whether he can stay healthy given a dislocated knee cap in 2012 and a torn bicep in 2013. If so, he shouldn’t find it difficult outperforming the struggling David Hawthorne. He’ll likely start out on special teams and in a situational role, but Fortt is athletic enough to play in passing situations long-term. The battle with Hawthorne will be one to watch this summer to see if Fortt can bring some immediate IDP value.

Target: Late 4th Round

17. Ra’Shede Hageman, DE Falcons

With the Falcons shifting to a 3-4 scheme, Hageman becomes part of their defensive transformation. Having played tight end, he is extremely athletic for a 6’6” 300-plus pound lineman. He also offers versatility with the ability to play anywhere along the defensive line and in any situation. That should keep him on the field, which is crucial for IDP purposes. Most importantly, though, he carries some serious explosiveness. A protypical five technique defensive end, Hageman is likely to be underdrafted as owners shy away from 3-4 defensive ends.

However, guys like Calais Campbell, Cameron Jordan, and Muhammad Wilkerson have been successful ends despite their position and scheme. I believe Hageman will join that group if he can put forth a consistent effort.

Target: Late 4th Round

18. Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, FS Packers

Clinton-Dix is a known as a tackler and to be great in coverage. In short, he’s a solid all around player. Unfortunately, he’ll play free safety and will likely play more in coverage. That will limit his upside given the lower volume of tackle opportunities.

Target: Late 4th Round

19. Kevin Pierre-Louis, WLB Seahawks

Pierre-Louis is a weakside linebacker according to Seahawks’ GM John Schneider – that leaves him in competition with Malcolm Smith and KJ Wright who are both free agents after the 2014 season. Given his natural athleticism and ability to play in subpackages, Pierre-Louis could be a 2015 IDP riser. We’ll need a year to wait as his 2014 role is likely to be focused around special teams play, though.

Target: Late 4th to Early 5th Round

20. Kyle Van Noy, SLB Lions

Like many of the tweener prospects, Van Noy will play the Von Miller role for the Lions. Unlike Mack, Van Noy is unlikely to reach the same production as Miller. Because of that, he’s better suited for big-play leagues.

Target: Early 5th Round

Check back tomorrow as we continue combing through the top 43 IDP rookies.

[/am4show]