Underrated in Dynasty Part Four: The Rookies

I sat down this past weekend and didn’t do much tweeting (well, for me anyway). I wanted to focus my attention and take in all the madness. My main goal was to not jump to conclusions and stay balanced, regardless of if my #1 rated running back drops to the sixth round or not. Over the past few days, I’ve digested draft position, team fit and where all these players are going to stack up in rookie drafts. The list I’ve compiled here are players I think are sneaking under the radar.

Before I go on, I want to make a point. This is an extremely subjective art evaluating these rookies, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. There’s no foolproof plan, nor is there a way to guarantee success. If I were to guess (only from experience in rookie drafts as I haven’t checked the actual numbers), 75-80% of these guys are going to ‘bust’ and not become what everyone is expecting them to be. I bring this up because it’s VERY easy to slip into rookie fever right now. As I mentioned above, always keep things in balance and context.

• None have had the chance to fail drug tests yet
• None have had the chance to get major injuries that derail their career yet
• None have competed against NFL caliber players yet
• None have proven they can live the NFL lifestyle yet

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1. Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
2. Mike Evans, WR TB

1. Tre Mason, RB STL
2. Carlos Hyde, RB SF
3. Terrance West, RB CLE
4. Charles Sims, RB TB
5. Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
6. Allen Robinson, WR JAX
7. Cody Latimer, WR DEN
8. Martavis Bryant, WR PIT

1. Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
2. Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
3. Andre Williams, RB NYG
4. Davante Adams, WR GB
5. Brandin Cooks, WR NO
6. Odell Beckham, WR NYG
7. Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
8. All the QBs
9. All the TEs

Group 4: ‘Why Not’ (Late round flyers)

1. Henry Josey, RB PHI
2. James Wilder, RB CIN
3. TJ Jones, WR DET
4. Bruce Ellington, WR SF

Now, the list you’ve all been patiently waiting for (or just skipped to the middle of the page to read)

Group 5: ‘I’m all in’ (Undervalued)

Jeremy Hill, RB CIN

Hill is my RB1 in this class. I know Giovani Bernard is there for the foreseeable future, but I’m not particularly high on anyone in this class. Hill may never emerge as a PPR stud, but I could see him piling up multiple 1,200 yard and 10 touchdown seasons, much like Alfred Morris. I know it’s not pretty , but this running back class is looking bleak. The good thing about Hill is you only have to invest a second round pick to acquire him. If anyone offered you a nameless player for your second round rookie pick and promised you Alfred Morris-like production, you’d take that deal in a millisecond.

Lache Seastrunk, RB WAS

Speaking of Alfred Morris. My pal, good ole buddy Lache Seastrunk is in town. What made Seastrunk fall to the sixth round? I’m really not sure, but it’s made me slightly worried. I’m on the record of comparing Lache to a Jamaal Charles/LeSean McCoy type prospect (not what they became) and I won’t back away from that based on what I watched. I still believe his natural ability is of that quality, but dropping that far gives a reason for pause. While I’m currently paused, I think Seastrunk has a shot to come in and compete for playing time or even the starting job. While Alfred Morris is slow and steady, I’m not sure a new coaching staff is going to have much loyalty to a former sixth round pick making a minimum salary. Is Morris still the clear leader for the starting job? Absolutely..but there’s a chance here if Seastrunk shows what I think he’s capable of. I’ve seen him fall the the late second and even early third in some of my rookie drafts, so that’s tremendous value.

Storm Johnson, RB JAX

A storm is a brewin’, or so I thought before the draft when he fell to the seventh round. Regardless, I like the spot for him. It’s no secret the Jags are rebuilding and while they signed Toby Gerhart this off-season, I highly doubt he’s securely the starter. If we’re comparing the two based on pure skill set, give me Johnson. He is a solid receiver out of the backfield and is very elusive for a bigger back. He does have fumbling issues, but Johnson is hardly an investment based on the talent. If Johnson were coming out of a big time school (he went to Miami for one year then transferred), he’d be MUCH more highly sought after. Simply put, it’s worth throwing your hat in the ring for a third rounder.

Marqise Lee, WR JAX

Lee is the latest recipient of the ‘I stayed a year longer than I should have’ award.  Previous winners include Keenan Allen and Alshon Jeffery. You can only be a good player in the spotlight for so long before people start picking you apart. Once you gain expectations, everyone expects perpetual progression and continued growth on everything imperfect. When those those flaws aren’t corrected, they stick out like a sore thumb. Lee doesn’t have perfect catch technique. He doesn’t have the perfect body type. He battled injuries and terrible quarterback play in his Junior year as well. You know what those things don’t change? What happened his freshman and sophomore year – that’s what. When I watch Lee, I see an explosive athlete who will be able to break big plays on his own. While he doesn’t have perfect catch technique, he has shown the ability to fully extend. If you threw Antonio Brown, Damian Williams and Dez Bryant in a blender, you get Marqise Lee. He’s probably not what he was initially hyped to be after his sophomore campaign, but don’t let anyone fool you, he’s the real deal.

Paul Richardson, WR SEA

Richardson is easily my favorite value pick in the 2014 class. He represents the dream scenario for someone looking for an undervalued prospect and boasts the following strengths:

• Explosive ball skills
• Explosive ability after the catch
• Ability to fight through tough coverage and make contested catches

So, why isn’t he a top 5-7 rookie pick?

Size, SIZE, concentration drops and, of course, SIZE. Richardson keeps both metric junkies and film watchers off his scent because of  these two ‘big’ problems. Either could end up doing him in, I won’t deny that. While he doesn’t have the same size and bulk, Richardson’s ball skills remind me a ton of Justin Hunter’s (a player you already know I’m really high on). While they lose concentration from time-to-time (like almost every receiver), they can also make tremendous catches they seemingly have no business making. I see a lot of comparisons to DeSean Jackson out there. While I find that a little on the optimistic side, I don’t think it’s out of the question, either. The situation in Seattle doesn’t worry me as much as others. They’re a run first team now, but with Marshawn Lynch seemingly gone after next year and the run defenses getting perpetually better in the NFC West, you’d expect the Seahawks to zig when everyone else is zaging at some point, right? While he’s a game manager now, Russell Wilson has the potential (which I expect him to reach) to be a perennial member of the 4,000 yard, 30 touchdown club.

Donte Moncrief, WR IND

Feed him more.

Moncrief’s a player I’ve been keeping track of since 2012. It’s been a wild ride, but we’re finally here. I wouldn’t expect much in terms of stats in 2014 as the Colts loaded themselves up with credible options for Andrew Luck, but that’s why we play in dynasty leagues. He’ll be one of the players I watch closest this season – any signs of chemistry with Luck and I think you’re looking at my top underrated wide receiver for 2015 (if he doesn’t blow up this season). When you think of Moncrief’s potential ceiling as an individual player, plus having one of (if not) the best young quarterback in the game by his side for seemingly his entire career, you can’t help but get excited. The best part is all he costs is an early to mid-second round rookie pick. He could definitely fizzle out and be out of the league in three years, sure, but the ceiling far outweighs the risk in buying right now.

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