A Breath of Fresh AIR

Eric Hardter

austin

In late February I designed and introduced the AIR (Adjusted Improvement Ratio) metric, and subsequently took it for a test drive by examining 2013’s top-12 PPR wide receivers.  The rationale behind my desire for a better metric was simple, but since “Past Eric” has already detailed these reasons I’ll defer to him (excerpted from the original study):

“AIR masks the individual deficiencies of [previous] qualifiers by taking nearly every pertinent factor into account, including sample size, efficiency and the scope of a team’s offense.

To tabulate AIR, I created and followed the following formula:

AIR = % of Team’s PPR Receiving Points / % of Team’s Targets

The calculated ratio can then determine if a player was able to operate above the mean level of production for his offense.  It also provides an answer as to whether a player’s fantasy points correlated to the volume of targets he received.  Put another way, AIR describes a pass catcher’s impact relative to his team, as well as the efficiency at which he operated.”

Well said, “Past Eric” (self high five!).  Expounding a bit further, I’d be remiss if I didn’t include a refresher for how to calculate AIR.  At the risk of plagiarizing myself once more, allow me to backtrack and reuse Cleveland receiver Josh Gordon as an example:

In order to enact AIR, we first need to know how many PPR points were available to the Cleveland pass catchers:

tableone

As the table above shows, this number can be generated by taking the quarterback data and converting it to how the points would be scored relative to pass catchers.  Each reception is worth one point, each yard is worth 0.1 points, and of course every touchdown is worth six points.  For the Browns, this amounted to 972.2 possible points.  As Gordon was responsible for 314.4 of these points, his numerator for the AIR equation stands at 32.3%.

The denominator is more straightforward.  Browns’ quarterbacks attempted 681 (!) total passes, 159 of which were directed at Gordon.  Therefore his AIR denominator (% of team targets) stands at 23.3%.  Dividing the two numbers results in an AIR of 1.39 for the budding superstar, and also helps qualify the metric as a whole – the bigger the AIR, the better.  AIR ratings approaching 1.0 (or below) represent expected, or subpar production.”

With that history lesson in hand, it’s time to undertake the next era of AIR, a point I mean both literally and figuratively.  As I’ve already focused on the league’s elite, it’s time to bring this metric full circle and chronicle a subset of the 2013 rookie pass catchers in order to see how well they flashed in year one.  I’ll start with the top-ten rookie receivers (according to the end-of-season PPR rankings), and as a bonus include the top-five tight ends – obviously this will exclude a reasonable amount of freshman footballers, but given their relatively sparse usage a line had to be drawn.

Let’s begin with the receivers!  The list is sorted by descending AIR values (right-most column) and also includes the raw data to calculate the metric as well as each player’s 2013 PPR rank.  Rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns were also left out, as this is a pass catching metric only.

[am4show  have=’p2;p3;p4;p5;p6;’  guest_error=’sub_message’  user_error=’sub_message’ ]

tabletwo

Next, let’s consider the tight ends (displayed similarly to the above):

tablethree

With the AIR data now known, I believe there are quite a few conclusions that can be drawn:

  • Kenny Stills and Terrance Williams can thrive as complementary pieces – Neither received a big slice of the pie (7.83% and 12.63% of team targets respectively), but each knew what to do with it.  Stills already appears on track to be a better version of Lance Moore, and makes for a great buy before owners catch on.  Williams, meanwhile, is already a known commodity with an ADP of 67.8 – however, should a bigger 2014 follow that number is only going to keep going up.  This leads into my opinion that…
  • Terrance Williams is underrated – Not only does Williams have the requisite size (6’2”, 208 pounds) and speed (4.52 second 40-yard dash), he out-produced every rookie receiver not named Keenan Allen through the air last year.  If he wasn’t so lightly regarded at this time last year I believe he’d be in the conversation for a top-36 startup selection.
  • Keenan Allen is a really, really good – Allen was the only player above to lead his team in targets and function as the primary receiving threat.  The fact he still posted an AIR of 1.14 (third best amongst receivers) highlights how good his season truly was.
  • Tavon Austin was every bit as good as Cordarrelle Patterson and DeAndre Hopkins – If you tell me Austin didn’t live up to the hype I’ll be the first one to nod my head in agreement.  However, within the confines of the terrible St. Louis passing attack, Austin performed slightly better than average, a far cry from the abject failure he’s made out to be.  His AIR of 1.01 is but a shade behind the twin values of 1.02 posted by Patterson and Hopkins (Austin was also every bit as good as Patterson on the ground), yet each is regarded as a top-three round start-up selection according to the April ADP data.  Conversely, since last August Austin’s ADP has fallen from 54.3 to 81.2, a relative difference of -49.5%.  It’s okay to not like Austin, but using his rookie season stats as the reason is shortsighted.
  • The AFC East rookies failed to impress – The trio of Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Robert Woods all performed in a below-average manner relative to expectations (sub-1.0 AIR values).  Dobson was only marginally better than Thompkins, yet Thompkins joins Austin with the distinction of being the only players above whose ADP values decreased since last August (137.7 to 238.1, -73.4%).  Woods, meanwhile, showed little as Stevie Johnson’s running mate, but the pathetic Buffalo passing game wasn’t solely to blame as Woods failed to elevate his market share.
  • Bring back Justin Blackmon – In 2012, while functioning as Blackmon’s running mate Cecil Shorts III was able to put forward a mind-boggling AIR value of 1.41.  With Blackmon out in 2013 and Ace Sanders occupying Shorts’ old role, he unsurprisingly face-planted.  This isn’t to say Sanders is talentless by any stretch, but the offense clearly looked different without their WR1.
  • Jordan Reed’s qualitative standing as the top rookie tight end wasn’t a mirage – One of the season’s biggest disappointments was that we were unable to see what Reed could do over the course of an entire year.  During his eight fully healthy games, Reed averaged 13.8 PPR points, a figure that would’ve seen him conclude the season as the first rookie TE1 since Rob Gronkowski in 2010.  Still learning the finer points of the position following a collegiate conversion from quarterback, the only thing holding Reed back from perennial top-five status is his health.
  • Tim Wright and Mychal Rivera are fine backend stashes – Perhaps the biggest loser of the coaching change in Tampa Bay is Wright.  Gone is former college coach Greg Schiano, and new head man Lovie Smith is notorious for viewing tight ends as blockers first and receivers second.  Regardless, if he can beat out Brandon Myers (a poor blocker in his own right), Wright should continue to improve despite his “tweener” size.  Similarly, Rivera showed flashes in a dysfunctional Oakland passing offense.  That he’s going undrafted according to the ADP data belies his efficient abilities.
  • Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert were outplayed by their fellow rookies – I remain high on both Ertz and Eifert, but it’s reasonable to say they were effectively “just guys” as rookies.  It’s certainly no black mark, and likely more a byproduct of playing in highly efficient offenses with established playmakers – however, neither truly flashed as freshmen.  Tight end remains the most difficult “early impact” position, and as such I’d hesitate to downgrade either.

While the above serves as an excellent primer for each rookie pass catcher, it’s reasonable to want to place these numbers into more of a historical context.  In other words, how do the AIR values of the players above compare to the rookie metrics of the league’s elite receivers and tight ends?  To answer that question, consider the table below:

tablefour

Contained in the table above are the rookie AIR values for the “Big Six” receivers (at least that was before Gordon’s recent run-in with a possible suspension) and “Big Two” tight ends, all of who are widely considered top-tier players at their respective positions.  Before I continue with a quantitative comparison, I want to make one thing crystal clear – as of yet I have NOT attempted to use the AIR metric as a long-term predictor.  Filed under the “correlation does not imply causation” header, I need to perform additional multi-year studies to determine if a rookie’s AIR value can function as some kind of persuasive barometer.

With that said, the AIR numbers of the “Big Six/Two” receivers/tight ends are staggering.  With the exception of Calvin Johnson (Demaryius Thomas is somewhat tougher to gauge as he was only targeted 39 times as a rookie), the right-most column shows that these elite pass catchers performed in such a transcendent manner as first-year players.  It’s entirely possible that if greatness is expected, we should see glimpses of it in year one.

This comparative analysis shines most favorably on Williams, Allen, Reed and Wright (which is unfortunate with the drafting of Austin Seferian-Jenkins), as each performed to the standard set previously.  Stills’ rookie season also stands out, although a lack of volume relative to his contemporaries and the addition of Brandin Cooks obscures his outlook.  It should also be noted that an “average” AIR value as a rookie doesn’t preclude a player from ultimately achieving fantasy stardom.

Even if the predictive powers of the AIR metric remain untested and potentially fraudulent, I nevertheless believe it’s important to understand how well these rookies performed relative to their respective offenses.  It’s a lot to make the transition from college, learn a new offense and hold up for a longer season, so production above the mean is a definitively positive sign.  So if you’re targeting one of these rookies who performed better than you previously thought, act fast before they get another opportunity to prove the doubters wrong – you don’t want your window to buy cheaply to vanish into thin air.

Stay tuned for similar analyses as the off-season drones on, as I’ll continue to find new and exciting uses for the AIR metric.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

eric hardter