Flex Leaguers: Positional Valuation in Different Scoring Formats
At some point in the process of a startup draft (probably about the time you’re trying to compare Alfred Morris to Shane Vereen or figure out how valuable Charles Clay is in a non-PPR league), you realize the importance of thoroughly understanding your league’s scoring system. While the battering ram versus the backfield-catching back is a simple decision (or is it?), what about the increasingly popular multi-flex and superflex leagues where you may be choosing between Ryan Tannehill and Andre Johnson to start in your last open lineup spot? How are you supposed to compare the values of different positions in different scoring formats? It is the intent of this article to scratch the surface on answering these questions through researching 2013 statistics in PPR, non-PPR and tiered-PPR dynasty leagues.
I will preface this article by recommending you have a thorough understanding of the unique scoring rules in your league, which are not necessarily obvious as there are many potential variations between PPR leagues with the many customization options host sites offer. The number of points for passing touchdowns, bonus points for long rushing or receiving touchdowns or big plays, bonus points for reaching certain levels of yardage, fractions of points for yardage and whether return yards and fumbles factor into offensive skill player points all make a difference. Make it a point to have intricate knowledge of the scoring systems in each of your leagues and you likely already have an advantage over many of your opponents.
Methodology
Given all the customization options applied to most dynasty fantasy leagues, to ensure consistency across scoring formats, the following standard categories and points were manually calculated for each position:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 5 points per passing touchdown
- -1 points per interception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing
- 6 points per rushing touchdown
- 1 point per 10 receiving yards
- 6 points per receiving touchdown
To emphasize the valuation between positions in format, the scoring differences between formats lies solely within points per reception: PPR (one point per reception regardless of position), non-PPR (zero points per reception regardless of position) and a tiered-PPR setup (0.5 PPR for running backs, 1 PPR for wide receivers and 1.5 PPR for tight ends). Player lists by position were pulled from the DLF Rankings page and their 2013 statistics in the aforementioned categories were assigned. Fantasy points were then calculated based on the point system, rounding down to the nearest multiple of ten where applicable and columns were added for each of the scoring formats. The result was a list of 113 players who were top-100 players in one or more of the three scoring formats in 2013.
Data Results
With all other factors equal, the table below breaks down top scorers by position in increments of ten for each scoring format. For example, seven of the top ten in fantasy points in tiered-PPR leagues were quarterbacks with one each at running back (Jamaal Charles), wide receiver (Demaryius Thomas) and tight end (Jimmy Graham).
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Observations
Players Most Impacted by Format
1.) PPR to non-PPR
Biggest beneficiaries/bumps 20+ spots: most of these are quarterbacks, indicating they are the major beneficiaries of the slide of highly-targeted receivers. Note these are generally QB2- or QB3-caliber players, making non-PPR superflex leagues more favorable to lower-end NFL starting quarterbacks than PPR leagues.
Terrelle Pryor (+42), EJ Manuel (+38), Josh McCown (+38), Chad Henne (+36), Aaron Rodgers (+34), Sam Bradford (+34), Jay Cutler (+33), Mike Glennon (+33), Ryan Fitzpatrick (+32), Alfred Morris (+32), Matt Schaub (+28), Matt Cassel (+28), Eli Manning (+26), DeAngelo Williams (+26), Frank Gore (+24), Geno Smith (+23), Stevan Ridley (+20)
Biggest sliders/drops of 20+ spots: the six biggest sliders are wide receivers, followed by three very highly-targeted tight ends.
Kendall Wright (-35), Harry Douglas (-31), Julian Edelman (-30), Pierre Garcon (-25), Antonio Brown (-25), Andre Johnson (-24), Tony Gonzalez (-23), Antonio Gates (-22), Greg Olsen (-21), Anquan Boldin (-21)
2.) PPR to Tiered-PPR
Biggest beneficiaries/bumps 20+: all of the players that benefit with a jump in the rankings of at least 20 spots are tight ends with the additional half a point per reception, mostly bypassing many running backs who lose half a point per reception from the PPR format.
Martellus Bennett (+31), Antonio Gates (+29), Greg Olsen (+28), Charles Clay (+27), Jordan Cameron (+22), Delanie Walker (+21), Jason Witten (+21), Tony Gonzalez (+20)
Biggest sliders/drops of 20+: not surprisingly, the four players impacted most negatively with the 50% reduction in points per reception are running backs heavily targeted out of the backfield.
Danny Woodhead (-29), Pierre Thomas (-26), Giovani Bernard (-23), Joique Bell (-22)
3.) Non-PPR to Tiered-PPR
Biggest beneficiaries/bumps 20+: all wide receivers and tight ends, with tight ends getting an extremely significant boost in value with 1.5 points for every reception they didn’t get credit for in non-PPR. Most noteworthy are Antonio Gates (77 receptions for 872 yards) and Greg Olsen (73 receptions for 816 yards). Averaging between 11 and 11.5 yards per catch along with Charles Clay, Tony Gonzalez, Martellus Bennett and Jordan Cameron, Gates (101st in non-PPR rankings) and Olsen (99th) skyrocketed to be tied for 50th in Tiered-PPR rankings.
Antonio Gates (+51), Greg Olsen (+49), Charles Clay (+43), Tony Gonzalez (+43), Martellus Bennett (+42), Jordan Cameron (+41), Jason Witten (+35), Kendall Wright (+35), Harry Douglas (+34), Delanie Walker (+29), Julian Edelman (+28), Julius Thomas (+27), Jimmy Graham (+27), Antonio Brown (+26), Pierre Garcon (+26), Andre Johnson (+25), Jared Cook (+21), Brian Hartline (+21), Marques Colston (+21)
Biggest sliders/drops of 20+: despite scoring the same total points in all formats, eight of the top ten sliders were quarterbacks. However, this is not to say all quarterbacks slid as the top three from non-PPR (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Andy Dalton) all held their ground and 16 of the top 30 scorers were quarterbacks. The disparity between the quarterback tiers is more pronounced in this format, making it especially important in superflex leagues that use Tiered-PPR to acquire those top passers. Two running backs, Alfred Morris and DeAngelo Williams, with solid yardage (1,284 total yards for Morris and 1,176 for Williams) but few receptions also lost significant value in the Tiered PPR format.
Terrelle Pryor (-40), EJ Manuel (-38), Josh McCown (-37), Chad Henne (-35), Alfred Morris (-34), Mike Glennon (-34), Aaron Rodgers (-34), DeAngelo Williams (-33), Sam Bradford (-33), Jay Cutler (-31), Zac Stacy (-30), Frank Gore (-30), Ryan Fitzpatrick (-30), Rashad Jennings (-29), Eli Manning (-29), Maurice Jones-Drew (-27), Matt Cassel (-27), Matt Schaub (-27), Geno Smith (-23), Le’Veon Bell (-22), Stevan Ridley (-22), Adrian Peterson (-21), Ryan Mathews (-21), Eddie Lacy (-20), Andre Ellington (-20), Robert Griffin III (-20)
Top 100 by Format and Position
1.) PPR Leagues
No matter the scoring format, Peyton Manning was well ahead of Drew Brees in a tier all by himself. Brees was also comfortably a single-man tier, 35 points ahead of the third highest-scoring player in Jamaal Charles. Eight of the next 17 players, and nine of the next 20, were also quarterbacks before the running backs and wide receivers began to step up.
Charles, Matt Forte (fifth), and LeSean McCoy (eighth) rode their high volume of carries and receptions to be top-eight scorers in PPR leagues. From there, Knowshon Moreno was the next running back to appear (all the way down at 23rd) with only Marshawn Lynch (32nd) and DeMarco Murray (37th) joining them as top-40 running backs. The list of running backs with at least 45 receptions also included Giovani Bernard, Le’Veon Bell, Shane Vereen, Ray Rice, Joique Bell, Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Fred Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew, though only Bush, Jackson and Woodhead were even in the top 50. Despite a lower total of receptions, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson all cracked the top 50 with their yardage and touchdowns.
The top wide receiver doesn’t appear until tenth overall (Demaryius Thomas, who was tied with Andrew Luck in total points), though five more receivers with at least 84 receptions each joined him in the top 20 (Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon and Brandon Marshall). Other receivers with at least 84 receptions varied greatly in their rankings as a result of lower yardage or touchdown totals: Dez Bryant (23rd in points), Alshon Jeffery (32nd), Jordy Nelson (36th), Pierre Garcon (31st), Kendall Wright (60th), Andre Johnson (30th), Julian Edelman (39th) and Eric Decker (29th). Wright in particular suffered due to a lack of touchdowns (two) as he totaled 94 receptions and over 1,000 yards but still scored fewer total points in PPR than 21 quarterbacks and five tight ends.
Though Jimmy Graham (18th overall) is discussed in more detail in the tiered-PPR section below, he stood out as the only tight end in the top 50 in PPR scoring. Only ten tight ends ranked in the top 100, indicating that even in PPR a low-TE1 like Delanie Walker (103rd) may be better on your bench than a starting quarterback like Chad Henne (80th).
2.) Non-PPR Leagues
Quarterbacks, and not running backs, are the biggest beneficiary of this scoring format. While there are still more wide receivers (33) in the top 100 of non-PPR leagues than any other position, there are nine quarterbacks in the top ten, 17 in the top 20, 27 in the top 60, and 32 in the top 90. As is the case with all three formats, the quarterbacks are top-heavy in non-PPR as half of the NFL starters were in the top 20 in scoring. In the next 40 picks, ten were quarterbacks while 14 running backs and 14 wide receivers averaged 10.9 to 14.8 points per game.
While running backs get a slight boost overall in non-PPR (28 in top 100 players) compared with PPR (26), at the top of the charts the highest-scoring running backs take a hit as Jamaal Charles drops from third to tenth (with a decrease of 4.6 points per game) and LeSean McCoy from eighth to 18th (a 3.2 drop in points-per-game).
There are zero wide receivers or tight ends in the top 20, with the first wide receiver being Demaryius Thomas at 26 (compared with being ranked ninth in PPR) and Jimmy Graham is the top tight end at 30. Only seven tight ends even cracked the top 100, making the two tight ends tied at #101 (Antonio Gates and Charles Clay) less valuable from a total points perspective than players including Matt Cassel (85th) and Rod Streater (100th). If you’re looking at flex options, even the worst NFL starters are better options than low-TE1s.
3.) Tiered-PPR Leagues
The quarterback is less valuable in the tiered-PPR format, losing ground to wide receivers and tight ends (and even elite pass-catching running backs compared with non-PPR). The top tiers of quarterbacks are able to hold their own with 16 of the top 30 overall scorers, but only nine of the next 70 in fantasy points are gunslingers. Top-75 scorers in non-PPR E.J. Manuel (64th), Josh McCown (67th) and Sam Bradford (75th) didn’t even crack the top 100 in this format as they were passed by the likes of Jared Cook, Nate Washington and Tim Wright.
Despite getting half-credit per reception, running backs also take a significant hit in value within tiered-PPR leagues compared with non-PPR due to the significant boost wide receivers and tight ends get. Half as many running backs are in the top 50 in the tiered-PPR format (six compared with 12 in non-PPR) and only 18 fall into the top 100 overall. Jamaal Charles jumped past five quarterbacks (Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger) from tenth in non-PPR to fifth in tiered-PPR, but he was the anomaly for running backs. Even high-reception backs like DeMarco Murray (53 receptions but slid from 34th to 48th) lost ground. The tiered-PPR format where running backs get .5 PPR is not friendly ground for the position.
Along with quarterbacks, the wide receiver group’s actual fantasy points are the same as in PPR leagues. In tiered-PPR, many players at these two positions get a bump of a spot or two (such as DeSean Jackson from 34th to 32nd and Carson Palmer from 35th to 33rd), while some running backs find themselves in a free fall (such as Knowshon Moreno from 23rd to 34th and Reggie Bush from 44th to 59th). As such, 37 of the top 50 scorers were either quarterbacks or running backs despite the TE-premium scoring.
The common notion that Jimmy Graham is far-and-away the most valuable player in tight end-premium scoring is justified, though only in a relative sense. Graham was tied with Andy Dalton for third in scoring in tiered-PPR leagues, more than four points per game behind Drew Brees (16% lower) and nearly nine points per game behind Peyton Manning (29% lower). Compared with other tight ends, however, the difference was significant. The next best tight end was now-retired Tony Gonzalez at 36th overall with less than 75% of the production of Graham (16.1 points per game). Gonzalez leapt up the rankings in this format from 56th in PPR and 79th in non-PPR, but was still nowhere close to Graham. Tight ends Jordan Cameron (38th), Julius Thomas (39th), Jason Witten (44th), Greg Olsen (t-50th) and Antonio Gates (t-50th) boosted the number of tight ends in the top 50 from one in both PPR and non-PPR to seven in tiered-PPR where tight ends score 1.5 points per reception. These high-volume tight ends became literally twice as valuable in this format as they were in non-PPR (such as Gates’ 14.2 points-per game versus 6.9 without credit for receptions).
Questions and Conclusions
Should you always start the QB over a RB, WR, or TE in superflex?
The answer to this question varies by scoring format. If you are in non-PPR, the answer is unquestionably yes. The QB32, which is more or less the “worst” NFL starting quarterback, averages the same points-per-game as the tenth best running back, sixth best wide receiver and scores one point per game less than the number one tight end. Would you play Chad Henne over Jimmy Graham in a non-PPR superflex spot? The numbers say it’s close and you would get more production from Henne than any other tight end.
Whereas there are only 17 players at other positions that average more points per game than the 32nd-best quarterback in non-PPR, that number jumps to 48 in tiered-PPR and 50 in PPR. Still, this indicates that you would only start a player at or above a mid-RB2, low-WR2, or mid-TE1 level above the lowest-scoring quarterback. The comparison of Ryan Tannehill versus Andre Johnson at the beginning of this article would be a difficult decision as Tannehill (QB19) averaged 18 points per game in each scoring format while Johnson (WR9 in PPR, WR9 in tiered-PPR, and WR12 in non-PPR) averaged 17.4 points per game in leagues where he gets a single point per reception and 10.6 where only yardage and touchdowns count.
How much more valuable are tight ends in tiered-PPR scoring?
In non-PPR scoring, only seven tight ends crack the top 100. In tiered-PPR, that number more than doubles to 16 and almost matches the total number of running backs (18). The best tight end (Jimmy Graham) matched the 21.6 points-per-game of QB3 Andy Dalton, good for seventh overall. A mid-TE1 like Jason Witten or Greg Olsen averaged 14.7 points-per-game, comparable to WR19 Larry Fitzgerald. The group of TE1s rounds out with Jared Cook at 10.8 points per game, on par with RB20 Pierre Thomas and WR35 Rod Streater. High-volume tight ends fly past 12-15 running backs and a handful of wide receivers.The results indicate that elite tight ends are absolutely as valuable as any player, while mid-TE1s are comparable to mid-WR2s in this format versus the high-WR3 range (Brian Hartline or Marvin Jones) in PPR.
Which players stand out in each scoring format?
In PPR, a healthy Sam Bradford was 19th in average points per game, followed closely by Alex Smith at 20th. Don’t discount Marshawn Lynch too much in PPR as he was the seventh highest-scoring running back. Potential value picks or acquisitions Chris Johnson and Anquan Boldin each averaged over 15 points per game, higher than Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Cameron and Giovani Bernard. Though I don’t expect a repeat, Fred Jackson was a RB1 in PPR scoring, immediately followed by Danny Woodhead and Joique Bell and are all cheaper alternatives to comparable production (in 2013) to Bernard and Zac Stacy.
For non-PPR superflex leagues, nearly all quarterbacks are extremely valuable. In 2013, Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged more points per game in non-PPR than any non-quarterback other than Jamaal Charles. Geno Smith was a better option than any wide receiver not named Demaryius Thomas or Josh Gordon, and Eli Manning would have posted more points on average than Dez Bryant. It really is that extreme in favor of quarterbacks, so start your backups accordingly.
Although few expect the touchdown-to-interception ratio or completion percentage to continue at their 2013 levels, but Nick Foles was fourth in per-game points in tiered-PPR leagues. A low-QB1 that doesn’t always get credit as such, Ben Roethlisberger was only 1.2 points-per-game behind Matthew Stafford. Even as the Broncos’ third (or fourth) receiving option, Wes Welker had a higher points-per-game average than all but five running backs. Jimmy Graham is worth the price.
Final Thoughts
Take this information as it is, with limited scoring rules and without factoring in consistency by looking at cumulative statistics. There are many more scoring format, player, and position observations that can be made from this data, but I hope this provides a general framework for an important variable when drafting or acquiring players. Consider your league’s unique rules and how these observations may need to be adjusted accordingly, but the results prove that differences in value between scoring formats can be significant. Use that knowledge to your advantage.
Follow me on Twitter @JLFoster10
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