2013 Quarterback Efficiency Rankings: Part Two

Eric Hardter

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Diving right into it, I had previously calculated and sorted the passing points per attempt (PPA) data of 2013’s top 45 fantasy signal callers.  In addition to listing this data in an all-encompassing manner, the quarterbacks were also segregated in accordance with their respective average weekly volumes.  Doing so allowed for averages to be obtained for each grouping, along with the accompanying standard deviations.

For example, if a highly efficient quarterback was limited by volume (ex. Nick Foles), he could be viewed as a potential breakout candidate.  Conversely, inefficient quarterbacks can be identified and potentially debunked as fantasy viable-players.  Identifying these divergent players (on either side of the spectrum) can help shed light on their respective future outlooks, and coupling this data with the happenings of the 2014 off-season can provide additional conjecture on top of the empirical evidence already put forward.

Let’s begin the analysis, starting with the efficiently elite.

Extremely Efficient (at least one standard deviation above the average)

Peyton Manning, DEN (0.666 PPA, 41.2 PAPG) – Nothing quite like a PPA value of 0.666 for “Evil” Manning, right?  Highlighted in this space last year, it was opined “with the addition of slot machine Wes Welker and recent draftee Montee Ball filling a void in the backfield, Manning should be even better in 2013.  If the Broncos establish the three-wide set as their base offense, his passing attempts could increase as well.”  Fast-forward a year and the projection remains the same.  Eric Decker is now gone, but Manning has made fantasy-relevant stars out of less talented players than Emmanuel Sanders.  Nearly 2.5 standard deviations above the average, he’s locked and loaded as the favorite for 2014’s overall QB1.

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Drew Brees, NO (0.558 PPA, 41.6 PAPG) – And so the beat goes on.  A stronger defense and purported shift to more running could lessen Brees’ volume, but his efficiency ensures he’ll remain amongst the ranks of the elite.

Aaron Rodgers, GB (0.584 PPA, 32.2 PAPG) – Rodgers remains extremely efficient (two standard deviations above the average), but the reduced volume is troubling for a player who’s running less.  The addition of Eddie Lacy has added balance to the offense, potentially precluding Rodgers from slinging it around the yard – however, having Randall Cobb for a full year could mitigate a drop-off in attempts.

Philip Rivers, SD (0.564 PPA, 34.1 PAPG) – Allow me to direct you here.  Simply put, it’s not as if this season came out of nowhere – Rivers remains a QB1.

Nick Foles, PHI (0.705 PPA, 24.4 PAPG) – All hail King Foles!  This year’s leader of the PPA pack, Foles took the starting job and never looked back.  With that said it’s folly to believe his TD:INT ratio won’t regress and losing top playmaker DeSean Jackson hurts.  However, a likely increase in volume coupled with the arrivals of Jeremy Maclin and Darren Sproles should mean Foles is here to stay as a top tier option.

Russell Wilson, SEA (0.585 PPA, 25.4 PAPG) – Four.  Including the playoffs, that’s the number of times last year Wilson exceeded 30 passing attempts.  Gaining a healthy Percy Harvin easily overcomes the loss of Golden Tate, but at some point the volume needs to increase if he’s to join the ranks of the elite.

On the Cusp (nearly one standard deviation above the average)

Tony Romo, DAL (0.519 PPA, 35.7 PAPG) – It was postulated last year in this column that Romo’s finish as the 2012 QB7 was largely aided by a career best 40.5 attempts per game.  While Romo’s volume certainly regressed, his efficiency actually went up.  With the continued improvement of Terrance Williams, along with the arrival of pass-happy coordinator Scott Linehan, the pendulum is primed to swing back in the other direction.

Andy Dalton, CIN (0.518 PPA, 36.6 PAPG) – The Red Rifle continues to be disrespected.  Yes, his finish as the QB3 was aided by volume, but Dalton outperformed several of his pass-happy peers.  He’s not exciting, but there’s no reason to think he’ll fall back down to earth anytime soon.

Jay Cutler, CHI (0.508 PPA, 32.4 PAPG) – Smokin’ Jay fell just short of being considered for the tier above.  With two WR1’s and an underrated tight end to throw to, expect a healthy Cutler to easily finish the season as a QB1.

Josh McCown, TB (0.559 PPA, 28.0 PAPG) – That Marc Trestman, huh?  With that said, McCown was 9.1% more efficient than Cutler – it might be a bit disingenuous to suggest he’ll fall on his face in Tampa.

Tread Lightly (nearly one standard deviation below the average)

Joe Flacco, BAL (0.379 PPA, 38.4 PAPG) – So this is what $120 million gets you, huh?  Flacco parlayed what was easily the highest volume of his career into one of 2013’s least efficient seasons.  Gaining Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta helps, but Flacco simply isn’t good enough to be considered anything more than a game manager.

Matt Schaub, OAK (0.370 PPA, 35.8 PAPG) – 12.1% less efficient than his usurper, Case Keenum, Schaub is moving to an Oakland offense that doesn’t have near the playmakers Houston does.  He’s waiver wire fodder in most leagues.

Thad Lewis, BUF (0.380 PPA, 31.4 PAPG) – Granted, starter EJ Manuel was only 5.7% better, but still – Lewis isn’t a viable fantasy commodity.

Kellen Clemens, SD (0.409 PPA, 24.2 PAPG) – See Lewis above.  Despite being insulated by a run-heavy game plan, Clemens was 15.2% worse than starter Sam Bradford.

Christian Ponder, MIN (0.392 PPA, 26.6 PAPG) – You might be noticing a trend here.  Ponder was 16.8% less efficient than Matt Cassel and should be riding Minnesota’s bench next season.

You’ve Been Warned (at least one standard deviation below the average)

Josh Freeman, NYG (0.261 PPA, 36.8 PAPG) – Freeman is awful and part of me wonders if the Giants signed him solely so that Eli Manning can look better.

Chad Henne, JAX (0.361 PPA, 33.5 PAPG) – If (and this is a biggie) Justin Blackmon returns then perhaps Henne will regain some efficiency.  With that said, his play under center is why I have a difficult time believing the Jaguars won’t be starting their young quarterback soon.

Kirk Cousins, WAS (0.324 PPA, 31.0 PAPG) – Despite teammate Robert Griffin III’s poor season, he was still a whopping 29.9% better than Cousins.  He was overhyped and ineffectual, and likely maxes out as an NFL backup.

Geno Smith, NYJ (0.383 PPA, 27.7 PAPG) – A personal favorite of mine, Smith was horrendously inefficient in 2013.  Adding Eric Decker helps, as would drafting another pass catcher – however, new teammate Michael Vick was 26.1% more efficient (albeit on a much better offense) last year.

Terrelle Pryor, SEA (0.369 PPA, 24.6 PAPG) – Remember when Pryor was a thing?  Easily outperformed by UDFA Matt McGloin, Pryor was recently shipped to Seattle for a seventh round pick.  He’ll only ever be useful with a switch to another position.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter