Exclusive 2014 NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis

Ken Kelly

pickanalysis

Editor’s Note: If you’ve somehow missed any of our draft coverage, be sure to check out the ORANGE Report and the Rookie Draft Guide.

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#222 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Storm Johnson, RB CENT FLA

Good running backs always get their chance and Johnson can play. I’m personally not sold on Toby Gerhart, so I see Johnson as a nice flyer in dynasty league drafts.

#214 – St. Louis Rams – Garrett Gilbert, QB SMU

Don’t get too excited thinking this is the heir apparent to Sam Bradford. If Gilbert couldn’t handle the pressure at Texas, he most certainly can’t handle the pressure of the NFL.

#213 – New York Jets – Tajh Boyd, QB CLEM

If you could teach someone to be accurate with the football, Boyd would start for the Jets next season. Unfortunately, you can’t.

#204 – Carolina Panthers – Tyler Gaffney, RB STAN

Just because Carolina can’t possibly go a year without adding someone to the backfield. This may not be great news for Kenjon Barner.

#201 – San Diego Chargers – Marion Grice, RB ASU

Another once highly thought of back lands in a spot where he may not make the roster. With Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown on board, Grice may need a good showing just to make the practice squad – there’s another thud in dynasty leagues.

#186 Washington Redskins – Lache Seastrunk, RB BAY

It’s a shame, really. Seastrunk was one of the most sought after recruits, then a scandal took him from Oregon to Baylor where he put up some video game numbers. Unfortunately, he proved to be rather one dimensional and really slipped in the draft. He may not even make an NFL team being a sixth round pick who can’t catch and that just seemed insane to think about just a year ago. Seastrunk has gone from a first round pick to a late round flyer in dynasty leagues.

#183 – Chicago Bears – David Fales, QB SAN JOSE ST

Let’s see.  Jay Cutler gets hurt. Josh McCown is gone. Marc Trestman is the “quarterback whisperer.” Sure, I’ll take a late look.

#181 – Houston Texans – Alfred Blue, RB LSU

Speaking of sleepers, Blue isn’t as well known as he should be (he’s battled injuries, including a torn ACL), but he has the size and speed combination to be successful in the NFL. If Arian Foster really is breaking down, Blue could see some action earlier than expected. He’s certainly worth a late round flyer based on his drafted situation.

#178 – Zach Mettenberger, QB LSU

If you’re looking for a late round rookie flyer on a quarterback, I like Mettenberger better than McCarron, Murray, Thomas and maybe even Savage. With Jake Locker looking like he’s on his ninth life, Mettenberger has a chance to see early action this season. He’s more than capable as a player and I give him a puncher’s chance to be successful in the NFL.

#176 – Green Bay Packers – Jared Abbrederis, WR WISC

One of our favorite late round sleepers, Abbrederis ends up in Green Bay and needs to be on your radar. He could very well end up on the practice squad this year, but he’s not without talent. This pick would be a little more exciting had the Packers not taken Davante Adams earlier in the draft.

#164 – Cincinnati Bengals – AJ McCarron, QB ALA

An interesting selection here as you could pretty easily compare McCarron to the likes of Andy Dalton in terms of arm strength and mobility. McCarron is a winner, but his attitude has been questioned and we’ll see how he handles being second (or third) fiddle.

#163 – Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Murray, QB UGA

This is a nice landing spot for Murray, who needs to show he’s back to full strength after tearing his ACL late last season. He’ll be given a chance to grow under Andy Reid and could have a shot at making the roster. He’s no threat to Alex Smith in the short term, though.

#138 – Baltimore Ravens – Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB COAST CAR

The Ravens needed to add another back in the draft and they settled on Taliaferro, who was very productive at a small school (Coastal Carolina). He has good size, but doesn’t really provide anything incredibly special. Still, the Ravens’ depth chart at running back is nowhere near settled, so he’s worth monitoring.

#135 – Houston Texans – Tom Savage, QB PITT

I like this move by the Texans as it’s a low-risk maneuver in an attempt to get their quarterback of the future. Savage is a work in progress, but Head Coach Bill O’Brien has made more out of less, so Savage is a late round flier in a rookie draft for an owner who can afford to stash him on their roster for a while.

#130 – New England Patriots – James White, RB WISC

Looking for a running back sleeper? This could be the one as our own Scott Fish claims White is a much better prospect than Montee Ball. The Pats lost Blount and Stevan Ridley had his issues last season, so White is a player to put firmly on your radar.

#124 – Kansas City Cheifs – De’Anthony Thomas, RB ORE

It’s quite a fall for Thomas from what we thought we were seeing years ago. In the end, he’s just too light and not powerful enough to be an every down player. The Chiefs could use him in the old Dexter McCluster role, but that wasn’t exactly fruitful as of late. He could have long-term upside, but owners will need to be patient.

We’ll focus now on the notable players drafted, not every offensive player taken as many at this point will be special teams players or don’t have special interest.

#120 – Arizona Cardinals – Logan Thomas, QB VT

There may no bigger bargain or wasted pick in a rookie draft than Thomas, who has really regressed over the past two years. However, he was once thought of as a future top ten pick years ago. He’s been incredibly inconsistent, but finds himself in a great spot with Bruce Arians in the desert. He should learn from Carson Palmer and be the possible heir apparent if he can improve his accuracy.

#118 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Martavis Bryant, WR CLEM

Overshadowed by the likes of Sammy Watkins, Bryant has really flown under the radar. He lands in a nice spot here and could be given a chance to grow even if he doesn’t see early playing time.

#117 – Chicago Bears – Ka’Deem Carey, RB ARI

Finally.

Carey’s drop in this draft ends with his selection by the Bears at #117. He would have likely been a second round pick had it not been for some character issues and a horribly slow set of 40 times throughout the off-season.

Now, the question is going to be where he goes in dynasty drafts. He’s well behind Matt Forte, but Forte is 28 years old and has just two years left on his contract. This is going to be boom/bust pick here, but one I could see happening in the second or third rounds in drafts.

#115 New York Jets – Shaq Evans, WR UCLA

The Jets really needed at add some receiver help in the draft and they waited all the way until pick #115 to address the position. With a depth chart that really needs an infusion of excitement, Evans could make some noise early.

#113 – New York Giants – Andre Williams, RB BC

Interesting.

Williams was a monster last year with 2,177 yards and 18 touchdowns. He’s a tough runner who doesn’t shy away from contact. He also produced against virtually every opponent. He’s not going to be a great receiver, but he’s a blue collar player who could fit the old Brandon Jacobs role.

He’ll compete with Rashad Jennings and David Wilson for snaps, but there’s some sleeper appeal here.

#106 – San Francisco 49ers – Bruce Ellington, WR SC

Ellington, a former point guard on the Gamecocks’ basketball team, is a quick player who can really take advantage of space. It’s an odd fit, though. The 49ers are just stacked at receiver right now, so it’s going to be really tough for Ellington to make much noise for quite some time.

#104 – New York Jets – Jalen Saunders, WR OKLA

There’s really not much to see here as Saunders projects to be more of a returner and special teams ace than a receiver.

#103 – Atlanta Falcons – Devonta Freeman, RB FSU

The Falcons really needed an infusion of youth into their backfield and they get it with Freeman, who should spell the again Steven Jackson this upcoming season. Jackson’s value takes a bit of a hit here (but was it really high anyway), but the player most affected is likely Jacquizz Rodgers, who is going to have a hard time holding off Freeman and earning a role. Freeman has been compared to Ahmad Bradshaw more than a few times (I actually saw it again this morning), but it’s hard to say if he can ever produce to that level. Regardless, this is a nice “need” pick for Atlanta and Freeman should be a good late second or early third round pick in dynasty drafts.

DAY THREE

We’re back for day three and there are still a lot of names on the board who could be good players down the road.  Here are just a few who I have my eye out for today:

Tom Savage, QB PITT
AJ McCarron, QB ALA
Martavis Bryant, WR CLEM
Andre Williams, RB BC
Ka’Deem Carey, RB ARI
Bruce Ellington, WR SC
Zach Mettenberger, QB LSU
Aaron Murray, QB UGA
Jared Abbrederis, WR WISC
Devonta Freeman, RB FSU
Lache Seastrunk, RB BAY

Keep in mind the pick analysis today won’t be “live” all day, so check back often as we’ll do them in groups.  Thanks!

#97 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Dri Archer, RB KENT ST

Love it. Archer is another player to keep your eye on as a swiss army knife type of player who can really fly. He’s a multi-talented player who came very close to breaking the NFL Combine record for a 40 time. His ceiling is Darren Sproles and his floor is probably the “bad” Dexter McCluster. We’ll see.

#96 – Minnesota Vikings – Jerick McKinnon, RB GA SOUTH

Look, it’s a little crazy to see McKinnon as the long-term replacement for that fairly talented running back the Vikings currently have, but his measurables are a joke. If you were to have an official “underwear olympics,” McKinnon could win it as he’s fast, quick and can really jump. He’s one to watch in the preseason.

#94 – Cleveland Browns – Terrance West, RB TOWS

I really like West and this is a good landing spot. West is a small school prospect, but he has striking athletic ability on tape. He could push to be the backup to Ben Tate quickly and with Tate’s injury history, there’s a chance we see him as early as this season. He’s a nice sleeper in dynasty drafts for sure.

#91 – Arizona Cardinals – John Brown, WR PITT ST

The small school products started coming from the draft right around this point, with Brown being first. He has great short area quickness and could be a dynamic return man, but there’s not a ton of dynasty appeal here.

#90 – Indianapolis Colts – Donte Moncrief,WR MISS

Moncrief has been put squarely in the big group of talented, but second tier wide receivers throughout the draft process. He’s a player who has a puncher’s chance to develop into being a good receiver, but he’s buried on the depth chart in Indianapolis. Still, you have Andrew Luck slinging the ball there for the next decade, so anyone with a chance to develop needs to be on the roster. If he can consistently match his production with his physical ability, this could be a still.

#86 – Philadelphia Eagles – Josh Huff, WR ORE

Chip Kelly gets one of his own to pair with Jordan Matthews, who was taken by the Eagles earlier. Huff isn’t going to jump out at you on tape, but he knows the offense as well as anyone and he can really produce. He’ll be a bit of an afterthought in most rookie drafts, but he’s worth a late round flyer in a dynasty league.

#75 – St. Louis Rams – Tre Mason, RB AUB

It seems this is the round for sleeper running backs. I’ve personally never been sold on Zac Stacy as the long term bellcow running back for St. Louis and the presence of Mason could challenge my theory. A wrist injury may have facilitated his drop down the board, but the Rams cash in. Mason was productive for the “near champion” Auburn Tigers with 1,816 yards and 23 touchdowns on 5.7 yards per carry. He also played well against all levels of competition. He needs to work on his pass protection, but Mason could challenge Stacy eventually. It’s certainly bad news for Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson and Benny Cunningham. I would expect Mason to go in the late second or early third round of rookie drafts.

#69 – Tampa Bay Bucs – Charles Sims, RB West Virginia

Sims isn’t going to challenge Doug Martin out of the gate, but don’t just discount him as just “another guy.” He has loads of talent and has been productive wherever he’s played. His presence isn’t great for Mike James or Bobby Rainey. He could eventually challenge Martin for carries if we continue to see the “average” Doug Martin for much longer. Keep in mind Sims has been compared a lot to Matt Forte and look who the coach of the Bucs is now.  Hmm.

#65 – Houston Texans – C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE IOWA

Well, I thought Garoppolo was tough to spell, but this is ridiculous. Fiedorowicz should be given a good chance to be an effective receiving tight end for the Texans, but it’s going to be a long road to production. He still has a ways to go on the depth chart and he really won’t be on the radar in shallow dynasty leagues.

ROUND THREE

#63 – Miami Dolphins – Jarvis Landry, WR LSU

I love the second and third rounds of the draft because this is where you can really find some good sleepers. Landry was actually better on paper last year than Odell Beckham was for the Tigers last year. Now, he doesn’t have the same upside as Beckham, but he does produce when he’s on the field. The problem is his combine numbers were awful, which made scouts sour on him quickly. Regardless, Landry can play and could be a nice gem late in a rookie draft.

#62 – New England Patriots – Jimmy Garoppolo, QB E ILL

And just like that, Ryan Mallett may be on the trading block. Garoppolo will be tough to learn how to spell consistently, but we’ll get it if he can develop. Dynasty owners are some of the most impatient people in the world (even though it should be the opposite), but someone who rolls the dice on Garoppolo in a later round of a rookie draft could be reward later if he either takes over the helm in New England or shows well enough to get traded down the line.

#61 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Allen Robinson, WR PENN ST

The word “value” is kicked around a ton, but I think Robinson may be the prime example of “value” in two different ways. First, he really slid down the draft board and the Jags getting him at #61 is a coup. He’s also going to be a bit of an afterthought in some rookie drafts as many will take Marqise Lee ahead of him since they play on the same team now and Lee was taken first. There’s one problem with that – Robinson may very well be better. Meanwhile, the value of Cecil Shorts is diminishing by the second.

#57 – San Francisco 49ers – Carlos Hyde, RB OSU

And there he goes.

Hyde goes to a team that already boasts a backfield featuring Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore and LaMichael James.  You have to figure James is the odd man out and will be released if the 49ers can’t trade him. In a perfect world, Hyde will learn the offense over the span of the next season and take over for Gore the following year. The player you really feel for here is Lattimore as this seems like a clear indication the 49ers have serious doubts he’ll ever regain his pre-injury (or even pre pre-injury) form ever again.

Make no mistake, this player has a chance to be a workhorse running back on a team that looks to be a contender for a while. Hyde set records for yards per carry at Ohio State and has a skill set that would have had him taken in the top 15 of drafts a few years ago. Dynasty owners will have to exhibit serious patience and restraint here, but Hyde should eventually pay off. He’s likely going to go in the back half of the first or early part of the second round of dynasty drafts.

#56 – Denver Broncos – Cody Latimer, WR IND

Latimer was a fast riser and a lot of people thought he’d be taken in round one. His value in dynasty leagues is going to be very interesting. If he can develop quickly, he can help fill the void left by Eric Decker. If he doesn’t prove to be pro ready within a year or so, he may not ever get on the field with Peyton Manning.  He’s going to be a real high upside pick in the second or third round of dynasty drafts for someone with a little bit of intestinal fortitude.

#55 – Cincinnati Bengals – Jeremy Hill, RB LSU

Well, we finally have the long-term replacement for BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Hill should work his way into the lineup with Giovani Bernard sooner, rather than later and form a nice 1-2 punch for the Bengals. This in no way changes the outlook for Bernard, so jump on any owner who thinks it does. Hill has some long-term upside, but also some risk with his off the field issues. Regardless, I typically like productive SEC running backs and Hill fits the bill.

#54 – Tennessee Titans – Bishop Sankey, RB WASH

I have to admit I feel just a little vindicated right now. I’ve had Sankey as my RB1 in this draft for quite some time and received a bit of heat for it. While it’s still quite possible he doesn’t have the career of some others drafted after him, at least I know I was in the ballpark here. Sankey improved every year at Washington and capped off his career with an impressive 1,870 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on 5.7 yards per carry last season. He doesn’t catch the ball as much as you’d like, but he’s more than capable. The thing I love about Sankey is his workhorse mentality – he had eight games with at least 25 carries last season. Sankey is good at everything and great at nothing, but he’s still bound to be a productive player.

The Titans have only the perennially unimpressive Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster to stand in his way, so he should get an immediate shot to start for the Titans. Sankey will undoubtedly go in the middle to late first round of rookie drafts in dynasty leagues this Summer.

#53 – Green Bay Packers – Davante Adams, WR FRESNO ST

The patience of dynasty owners is going to really be tested here. Adams put up video game numbers last year playing with Derek Carr (131 catches and 24 touchdowns), but he’s going to be buried on the depth chart behind Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin. Regardless, any receiver on the Packers will obviously catch passes from Aaron Rodgers and that, in itself, merits a lot of attention. He likely won’t see much time early, but he could be a real gem in a few years.

#52 – Arizona Cardinals – Troy Niklas, TE Notre Dame

Niklas is going to be much more of a blocker than a receiver and seems destined to be in that giant group of “just a guy” tight ends.

#49 – New York Jets – Jace Amaro, TE TEX TECH

Amaro is nowhere near the prospect of Ebron, but he landed in a nice spot for immediate production. The Jets have been needing a good tight end for some time and they certainly hope they have it here with Amaro. He put up some wacky numbers, including a 106-/1,352/7 line, but the question is just how much of that was being the product of a highly explosive offense. Regardless, he’ll be on the dynasty radar as second or third round pick, depending on scoring formats.

#45 – Seattle Seahawks – Paul Richardson, WR COLO

Richardson was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the draft, but being taken surprisingly high in the second round is going to throw a bunch of cold water on getting him at a bargain price now as he’ll probably be a second or third round pick in dynasty drafts. Richardson was very productive at Colorado, as he caught 156 passes for 2,412 yards and 21 touchdowns over his three seasons. He’s dealt with his fair share of injuries, but he’s very fast and has an NFL skill set. This is a bit of a head scratcher here, but the Seahawks need receivers and they’ve been known to hit on some picks in recent years.

#42 – Philadelphia Eagles – Jordan Matthews, WR VANDY

Nice!

When you catch 206 balls for 2,799 yards and 19 touchdowns in the SEC, you tend to get noticed. To say Matthews was highly productive would be fairly offensive to the word “productive.” He’ll find himself in a good spot in Chip Kelly’s offense and could prove to be good enough for the Eagles to let Jeremy Maclin walk next season. He’s squarely in the mix to be in the middle of the firsts round in rookie drafts. He’s the all-time SEC leader in receptions and yards, plus he’s the cousin of Jerry Ricecake.  I’ll take it.

#39 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Marqise Lee, WR USC

You want a lottery ticket?

If this was last year, there’s no possible way Lee could have made it this far down in the draft. The big question is if you’re getting the Lee who posted a 118/1,721/14 line two years ago, or the one who battled what seems to be a bigger knee injury than reported and posted a 57/791/4 line as a horribly inconsistent player last season. His combine makes it even more confusing as he struggled in a lot of areas. In short, nobody really knows what they’re getting here. There’s a real chance you’re getting the next Sammy Watkins or the next Dwayne Jarrett if you take him in a dynasty draft, which will probably be somewhere in the late first or early second round.

Feel lucky?

#38 – Tampa Bay Bucs – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE WASH

Huh?

The Bucs seem to be stockpiling tight ends as they add ASJ to the mix of Brandon Myers and Tim Wright. It’s an odd selection on paper, but there’s no denying the potential in Seferian-Jenkins and both their tight ends are on short term contracts. Those who follow DLF know the owners live in the Northwest and we’re very familiar with both ASJ and Bishop Sankey. ASJ has character concerns and is coming off an injury, but he’s an athletic freak who could have challenged Eric Ebron to be the top tight end off the board had he posted a more consistent season both on and off the field. There aren’t many players who are 6’5″ and 262 pounds who can run precise routes with real speed. He’s going to be a matchup nightmare in the red zone and it’s a nice add for the Bucs to go with Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. ASJ is a likely second round choice in dynasty drafts, depending on the format and what else shakes out tonight and tomorrow.

#36 – Oakland Raiders – Derek Carr, QB FRESNO ST

The Raiders ended up having two players fall right into their laps as Carr joins Kahlil Mack in Silver and Black. This is an ideal situation for Carr as he’ll have the ability to sit back and watch (not learn) from Matt Schaub. He has the tools to be successful, but he needs to be better under pressure and show more consistency. Regardless, he has the talent to be a very good quarterback. Personally, I’m just glad he didn’t end up in Houston, where he would have chased the ghost of his brother his entire career, though I’ll still go to my grave saying the Texans had as much to do with David Carr failing as Carr did himself – it’s tough to throw from your back and they shattered his confidence.

Carr will be a interesting dynasty selection in the later rounds (likely the third or so).  He has some upside, but the Raiders need an infusion of talent all over the place to make him relevant in dynasty leagues.

DAY TWO

That’s a wrap for day one.  Some interesting players are still on the board and day two is going to be just as impactful in dynasty leagues. Some players of note who we should see picked soon are as follows:

Allen Robinson, WR PSU
Marqise Lee, WR USC
Carlos Hyde, RB OSU
Jordan Matthews, WR VANDY
Ka’Deem Carey, RB ARI
Bishop Sankey, RB WASH
Tre Mason, RB AUB
Donte Moncrief, WR MISS
Isaiah Crowell, RB ALA ST
Davante Adams, WR FRESNO ST
Charles Sims, RB WVU
Jeremy Hill, RB LSU
Lache Seastrunk, RB BAY
Derek Carr, QB FRESNO ST
Jace Amaro, TE TEXAS TECH
Cody Latimer, WR IND
Terrance West, RB TOW

…and that’s just some of them.

The most interesting story line to me for dynasty drafts right now is the choice at 1.03. It seems Sammy Watkins (Buffalo) and Mike Evans (Tampa Bay) are virtual locks at 1-2. The 1.03 debate right now is likely a major battle between Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants) or Brandin Cooks (New Orleans).

#32 – Minnesota Vikings – Teddy Bridgewater, QB LOU

The Vikings jumped into the first round and grabbed the last selection in order to likely block Houston from taking their quarterback of choice, who just happened to end up being Bridgewater. There’s no denying the numbers he put up at Louisville and he was once thought to be the top pick in the entire draft. Instead, he endured one of the worst off-seasons for a prospect in recent memory, highlighted by a horrible pro day.

In the end, Bridgewater ends up in a good place. Norv Turner should do a great job in developing him and it would really be best if Matt Cassel can at least be average to let him develop. He will need to prove he can throw the football in bad conditions (Minnesota in a year or two, Chicago and Green Bay), but he’ll have a great opportunity with the Vikings.

Bridgewater is a smart player and should have a good chance to be effective eventually. In a dynasty draft, he’ll likely be a late second or third round selection.

#28 – Carolina Panthers – Kelvin Benjamin, WR FSU

The Panthers arguably had the single biggest need of any team for a particular position, so it was almost a given they’d take a receiver in round one. They went with Benjamin, who is very raw, but has some serious upside. He’s an immediate red zone threat, but the Panthers are going to need to really fast track his development because they need him on the field in the worst way imaginable. He needs to work on his consistency and become much better at gaining separation. He’ll see immediate playing time as a rookie, that’s for sure.

Benjamin is going to be in that large mix we predicted in the late first and early second round of rookie drafts. The opportunity is there with Carolina, so that’s a bonus.

#22 – Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel, QB TEX A&M

And finally, the wait is over.

The Browns did well tonight as they maneuvered all over the place with their picks, ended up with Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel, plus picked up a first and fourth round pick next year. The whole night reminds me of what happened with Brady Quinn years ago. Let’s hope the Browns fare better this time.

Manziel is the ultimate risk/reward pick in fantasy and reality. He has an incredibly high ceiling and an equally low floor. His athletic ability is incredible and he can improvise with the best of them. Brian Hoyer should be able to keep the seat warm, but Manziel will take the helm at some point here soon. My question is the stability of the franchise. They’re all in with Johnny, but will this coaching staff be given enough time to develop him? If they aren’t, the next regime won’t be tied to him and this could be a disaster. In my opinion, Manziel needs to be a quick study. If he can get it, the sky is truly the limit for Josh Gordon.

Manziel will likely be a wild card pick in dynasty drafts with riverboat gamblers taking him early in the second and the skeptics looking for a bargain in the third.

#20 – New Orleans Saints – Brandin Cooks, WR ORE ST

You have to love the landing spots for Ebron and Brandin Cooks. Once thought of as a possible late first round sleeper in rookie drafts, Cooks has vaulted up the rookie mock draft boards over the past couple of months. After being selected by the Saints, the chances of him reaching the bottom half of the first round in any rookie draft is just about zero. On paper, Cooks can take over a lot of the production of Darren Sproles in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Cooks was unbelievably productive with 128 catches for 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns last season for the Beavers and those numbers aren’t a fluke. He can run virtually any route and is incredibly fast. Drew Brees has to love this pick and dynasty owners will, too.

The debate between Cooks and Odell Beckham Jr. at #3 overall in rookie drafts is going to be a hot one.

#12 – NY Giants – Odell Beckham Jr., WR LSU

Hmm.

There had been some rumblings about Beckham going to the Giants and it turned out to be more than just rumor. This move certainly can’t hurt Eli Manning as he tries to bounce back from a dreadful season, but it’s hard to say what this move may do to the values of Victor Cruz and especially Rueben Randle. You have to figure Randle is the one on the hot seat here, but the Giants should find ways to get all three of these players involved in the offense. As for Beckham, he’s squarely in that mix we’ve seen after Watkins and Evans go at 1-2 in most drafts. This certainly throws major cold water on the dynasty value of Jerrel Jernigan, however. Beckham is a playmaker and should immediately push Randle for playing time and be an electric return man.

#10 – Detroit Lions – Eric Ebron, TE UNC

Interesting.

The Lions weren’t talked about much with Ebron, but this is a great landing spot. He’ll provide an immediate upgrade to Brandon Pettigrew and should be able to fulfill the fantasy goldmine many dynasty owners have salivated at with the tight end position in Detroit. Ebron is the first tight end taken in the top ten of the NFL Draft since Vernon Davis and he could be just as good as a player eventually. Ebron has always been in play in round one of rookie drafts and now you could make a case for him in the middle of the round for sure. Matt Stafford, Golden Tate, both running backs and Calvin Johnson could all benefit from this move. Pettigrew will still be involved as the Lions move to a two tight end system more often, but his upside is capped even more than it was.

This is a dream scenario for Ebron in my book.

#7 – Tampa Bay Bucs – Mike Evans, WR TEX A&M

Ladies and gentlemen, your #2 pick in virtually every rookie draft.

Evans is a physical freak who posted an amazing 151 catches for 2,499 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Aggies over the past two seasons. At 6’5″ and 255 pounds, Evans is like a power forward at receiver, but one with some serious wheels. Some thought Evans could go ahead of Watkins in the draft, but it didn’t come to fruition. Regardless, the idea wasn’t ridiculous and that tells you about all you need to know about Evans and his upside. He should produce early for the Bucs and eventually replace Vincent Jackson as the number one receiver in Tampa.

To me, the question for Tampa is at quarterback. I’m not sold on Josh McCown even in the short term and that could cap the upside of Evans in the short term. Regardless, we have an elite rookie prospect here and one worthy of the second pick in rookie drafts.

Now the REAL fun begins! And it’s happening without Johnny Manziel being picked thus far.

#4 – Buffalo Bills – Sammy Watkins, WR CLEM

Here we go.

The Bills traded the #9 overall pick and their first and fourth round picks in next year’s draft in order to move up and get the draft’s best playmaker, so this move reminds me of Atlanta and their aggressiveness in getting Julio Jones a few years ago. The Bills obviously think Watkins can be just as good as Jones and it’s hard to argue when you watch him play. Watkins is explosive with the ball in his hands and EJ Manuel should be ecstatic at the thought of having Watkins to throw the ball to. We’ve touted Watkins as the top pick in rookie drafts all year and this changes nothing. He’s the best offensive weapon in the draft and is a no-brainer choice at the top of rookie draft boards this year. Watkins is electric in the open field and should be an instant impact player in dynasty leagues. The move may end up expediting Stevie Johnson’s exit out of Buffalo as the Bills have now added Watkins and Mike Williams this off-season.

Meanwhile, kudos to the Browns. Even with Watkins, the Bills aren’t exactly contenders and the Browns will likely still get a player they really covet at #9 AND get have two first round picks again next season.

#3 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles, QB UCF

Wow.

The Jaguars needed a quarterback, but few thought Bortles would be taken third overall. The quarterback he’s most compared to is Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers, but he’s far from a polished prospect. Chad Henne will likely start unless Bortles really impresses in the off-season, but it’s obvious the Jaguars really feel the upside of Bortles is elite. In theory, this would be a big boost for the likes of Cecil Shorts, but time will tell on that front. Bortles will likely be a late second or third round pick in most dynasty drafts as a quarterback who has upside, but one who needs a lot of help on offense at the skill positions.

#2 – St. Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OT AUB

We’re not going to be posting every offensive lineman selected obviously, but this selection is a temporary sign of confidence in Sam Bradford (we’ll see what happens later tonight on that front) and should provide some much needed blocking help for running back Zac Stacy. The Rams look to be one of the most active teams on the night, so we’ll see what they really think about Bradford and their receiving corps in the next few hours. This all but ensures Sammy Watkins doesn’t end up in St. Louis as well.

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Thursday, 6:00 AM PDT

Good morning everyone!

Welcome to the Premium exclusive 2014 NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis post from DLF. It seems like we’ve again been waiting forever for the NFL Draft to arrive and it’s finally here. This will be an incredibly exciting weekend and we thank you for spending it with us.  For many of you, this is your third NFL Draft as a Premium Member and your support still fuels our fire! I’ll start off this morning by explaining a little bit about what to expect. For those of you who have been around, it will be much like last season.

1.) We’ll start off with some random comments and events from the day and follow that up with our exclusive analysis of the picks as they come in, starting this evening. This post will be continuously updated throughout the entire weekend, from the bottom up. So, expect to see the newest information at the top for convenience purposes – this will help you avoid the annoying refresh and scrolling down part of the experience. Harder for us, but seamless for you.  Easy choice for us there.

2.) We’ll be sharing our thoughts on each of the relevant picks as they come in throughout the NFL Draft. Many of you check the Rotoworld fantasy news feed, so think of it that way, but with more of a dynasty spin as we complete our wrap-ups.  We won’t be posting commentary on the 75th right guard taken, but expect anything important in relation to dynasty leagues being covered. We WILL cover some IDP players, but that will be on the other IDP pick-by-pick analysis page. The focus here will be more on the offensive side of things.

3.) Feel free to make any comments here on the post, within the Premium (or free) forums as well – they’re sure to be hopping. While I won’t have the ability to respond to many of the comments or questions immediately (I’ll have my hands full updating the post here), comments are encouraged.  I would expect some great discussions all over DLF this entire weekend. Oh, and one other thing.  Expect the initial downloadable draft sheet for the rookies (exclusive for Premium Content members) to again be available earlier than you could possibly expect.

We’re absolutely stoked to again be able to offer this to you as an exclusive part of your Premium Membership with us.  Thanks a ton for supporting DLF and enjoy the draft!

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The word for me this morning is “excitement.”  Today really kicks off a brand new season of dynasty fantasy football as drafts will kick off as soon as this evening. Today, we should see a few of the dominoes fall, but tomorrow and Saturday should be just as fun, if not more. Let’s look at the positions early this morning.

Quarterback

It seems the tea leaves point to Johnny Manziel being the first quarterback taken, but it’s anyone’s guess as to where he may go. He seems sure to be gone in the first seven picks, but you just never know. As for the others, expect some aggressive trade attempts by teams to get into the back half of the first round in an attempt to grab their quarterback of the future in the form of Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater or even Derek Carr.

Running Back

It would be a shock to see any of this year’s running backs make their way into round one. I expect most of the action here to take place on Saturday, though players like Carlos Hyde, Bishop Sankey and Ka’Deem Carey could be in play for round two.

Wide Receivers

We’ve said the wide receiver position will be the best crop for dynasty drafts for the better part of a year now and it still rings true.  As many as seven could be taken in round one, led by Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. Personally, I’m very curious to see just how far Marqise Lee’s stock has dropped.

Tight Ends

It seem Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro are the only ones in play for tonight. Much has been said about Ebron’s “me first” attitude of late, but someone is going to fall in love with him early.

Is it 8:00 Eastern yet?

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ken kelly