2014 NFL Draft Veteran Winners and Losers: Day One
NFL Draft weekend is all about the incoming class of rookies and the hard work and dedication they’ve put forth over the past several years to end up in this place. While the majority of the coverage you will see and read over the next few days will be centered on the big names like Jadeveon Clowney, Johnny Manziel and others, they are certainly not the only ones feeling the effects of this draft. Each pick made will have an impact on the current players on that team and as dynasty players, we have to be aware of whose value is rising, whose is falling and how we should react as a result.
Here’s a look at some of the veteran winners and losers from day one of the NFL Draft.
The Pick: Greg Robinson, OT STL (1.02)
There were multiple rumors about who the St. Louis Rams might grab with the second overall pick in round one, but the most consistent theory was they would take the big offensive lineman from Auburn, Greg Robinson, who is one of the highest rated lineman in the past few years. The Rams have struggled to build the offensive line due to some high picks busting. If Robinson can avoid following that same path, he’ll have a huge impact on the entire Rams’ offense.
The Winner: Zac Stacy, RB STL
The biggest beneficiary of the Robinson pick figures to be starting running back Zac Stacy, who excelled in his rookie season last year. Stacy is not overly fast or elusive, but rather he’s the type of back who will take what he’s given and can succeed with higher volume of touches. He should continue to run well with the holes created by Robinson and, as a result, his dynasty value improves slightly.
The Pick: Sammy Watkins, WR BUF (1.04)
The Buffalo Bills made the first big move of the night, jumping up to the number four overall pick to nab wide receiver Sammy Watkins. The Bills added multiple offensive players in last year’s draft, but still struggled to score points. This move is a sign that Head Coach Doug Marrone is feeling the pressure to win now.
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The Winner: EJ Manuel, QB BUF
One of the offensive players the Bills selected a year ago was quarterback EJ Manuel, who dealt with some injuries and overall poor play in his rookie season. The Bills do remain committed to Manuel as their quarterback and the addition of a playmaker like Watkins should make a huge difference, especially if the team continues to add offensive weapons, perhaps a tight end later in the draft. With the parity at the fantasy QB2 position, Manuel could quickly vault up the quarterback rankings in the Ryan Tannehill range.
The Loser: Stevie Johnson, WR BUF
There have been rumors throughout the off-season that the Bills could be parting ways with veteran wideout Stevie Johnson and with the move up for Watkins, those rumors are back in full force as this could certainly lead to Johnson being traded or outright released. Johnson is still talented and healthy enough that he would be scooped up by someone and depending which team that is, he could turn this into a winning situation. For now, Johnson’s value is way down as he’s no more than a dynasty WR3 lacking upside.
UPDATE: Stevie Johnson has been traded to the 49ers.
The Pick: Mike Evans, WR TB (1.07)
A few weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded troubled wide receiver Mike Williams to the Buffalo Bills and the immediate assumption was the team would select former Texas A&M Aggie wide receiver Mike Evans to take his place. It’s difficult to decipher what you should and should not believe as the draft approaches, but this one just made too much sense and it came to be. Evans will be paired with another big receiver in the form of Vincent Jackson and should start from day one.
The Winner: Josh McCown, QB TB
Other rumors had the Bucs selecting Evans’ teammate Johnny Manziel, but that obviously didn’t happen. Tampa relied on rookie Mike Glennon as their quarterback a season ago, but it seems the new coaching staff will not follow suit. Instead, they’ve signed veteran quarterback Josh McCown, who excelled for the Bears in a backup role last season. McCown made his living last year throwing to two big wideouts in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and now he has another dynamic duo in Jackson and Evans. Although this is a short-term upgrade, McCown could end up as a reliable weekly starter and should be very cheap to acquire for quarterback needy teams.
The Pick: Eric Ebron, TE DET (1.10)
Many expected the Lions to select a tight end in this draft and part ways with veteran Brandon Pettigrew. Instead, the team re-signed Pettigrew to a four-year deal and dreams of a rookie playmaker at tight end were dashed, or so we thought. The Lions surprised everyone with the choice of Eric Ebron with the tenth overall pick. Personally, I love the choice as he will be yet another option in that high-powered offense. Ebron could easily become the second option in the passing game behind Calvin Johnson.
The Winner: Matthew Stafford, QB DET
Just like some of the other quarterbacks I’ll mention soon, Lions’ signal caller Matthew Stafford didn’t exactly need more help to put up monster numbers. After all, he’s done pretty well with just Johnson and a collection of mismatched parts over the past few years. But then, the team went out and signed free agent Golden Tate to add to Stafford’s dynasty value. Now, with the addition of Ebron, it’s getting crazy. Don’t expect Stafford to maintain the volume of passes he’s achieved over the past couple of years, but his efficiency should greatly improve and his dynasty value is already on the rise.
The Loser: Brandon Pettigrew, TE DET
The selection of Ebron could have a big impact on many of the Lions’ pass catchers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson even had fewer targets and receptions than we’ve seen in recent years, but the player who is likely most severely impacted is Pettigrew. I already mentioned the baffling re-signing, but that move looks even worse now. The good sign is the Lions evidently realized that was a poor choice and made a move to fix it. While Joseph Fauria could still see some red-zone targets (which become his forte last year), Pettigrew’s dynasty value is completely shot.
The Pick: Odell Beckham, Jr., WR NYG (1.12)
One of the fastest risers over the last week of the pre-draft process was LSU wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. who teams were reportedly considering trading up into the top ten to select. Instead, he fell right into the laps of the New York Giants, who parted ways with wideout Hakeem Nicks earlier this off-season. Beckham is a solid all-around wide receiver who some consider to be the top of this class, even ahead of Watkins or Evans. He’s also very good in the return game. Expect him to see the field right away.
The Loser: Jerrel Jernigan, WR NYG
I’ve seen many discuss how this negatively impacts wide receiver Rueben Randle, but the player who really takes the hit is Jerrel Jernigan, who was a solid player down the stretch for the Giants last season. The Giants have shown they can support three fantasy pass-catchers in the past, so I still have high hopes for Randle, even if Beckham, Jr. bypasses him. The player who seemingly has no role now is Jernigan, though admittedly, he didn’t have a great deal of dynasty value prior to the pick.
The Pick: Brandin Cooks, WR NO (1.20)
One of the first picks that really caused dynasty owners to perk up was the New Orleans Saints’ selection of wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Cooks was one of the more polarizing prospects entering the draft. Many see him as the next Steve Smith, as an undersized, but tough receiver who plays bigger than he is. Others simply see the size and dismiss him as the next Tavon Austin, destined to be a bust. Regardless of your opinion entering the draft, landing in New Orleans has to have an impact on the way we value Cooks.
The Winner: Drew Brees, QB NO
Not that he needed a boost, but that’s just what Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees got with the addition of Cooks. Brees has made due for years with a receiving pieced together with late round picks, but now he has a first round receiver who should step in and have an immediate impact. The Saints’ depth chart at receiver still includes the solid veteran Marques Colston, but he’s now on the wrong side of 30. Lance Moore is gone, leaving Cooks and another youngster, Kenny Stills ready to take over for the next few years and continue to provide Brees was solid receiving options.
The Pick: Johnny Manziel, QB CLE (1.22)
If you watched the draft last night (or any of the coverage in the weeks and months leading up to it), you know the story of the night was going to be quarterback Johnny Manziel and the speculation about where he might end up. He did fall further than many expected, but eventually, the Cleveland Browns traded up to select him and expect them to hand him the keys to their castle.
The Loser: Brian Hoyer, QB CLE
Anytime a team brings in a new quarterback, the loser in the situation is clear. In this case, it’s Brian Hoyer. Hoyer was brought to Cleveland last year and played well for a short stretch of games before suffering a season ending injury. Although Hoyer surprised with his great play and his connection with Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, his track record was not enough to sway the team from adding Manziel. There is already a debate about which quarterback will start the season, but it really doesn’t matter. Manziel is clearly the future in Cleveland and Hoyer has no dynasty value following the events of last night.
The Pick: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR (1.28)
The Carolina Panthers’ selection of a wide receiver on day one of the draft was among the least surprising developments of the night, considering the lackluster depth chart the team featured entering the weekend. It’s also not surprising that their actual selection was the big man from Florida State, Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin is a player who many dynasty owners seemed to be down on heading into the weekend for various reasons. Among them are his age and the inconsistency he displayed in college. Some of those worries will be washed away now that he’s landed in one of the ideal wide receiver friendly spots.
The Winner: Cam Newton, QB CARÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
The Carolina Panthers’ need at wide receiver has been a point of discussion throughout the career of quarterback Cam Newton, and that was before they parted ways with Steve Smith this off-season. In Benjamin, not only does Newton finally get a round one wide receiver, but he gets the big target he’s been lacking since his arrival in Carolina. Obviously, Newton was already considered among the top dynasty quarterbacks, but this addition of a potential WR1 only strengthens that ranking.
Check back tomorrow when we cover the veteran winners and losers from day two of the NFL Draft.
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