Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock Draft: The Risers and Fallers
The wait is over and it is time for the draft to begin. The combine, pro days, and “lying season” are all complete. The only piece of the puzzle left for us are the teams the rookies will be playing for. To give you our latest views on the draft class, the DLF staff recently conducted our final rookie mock draft that will occur prior to the NFL Draft. There were definitely some changes from the previous mock drafts, so I’m here with one last look at a few players to try and make sense of their change in status to the best of my ability.
Keep in mind our mock draft was conducted with PPR scoring assumed and trades were not allowed. Draft order and participants were also different from prior mock drafts, which means little fluctuations are normal and to be expected. There will also be differences in who gets chosen as a third round flier from one draft to the next as everyone has their favorites. For these reasons, I’m only going to focus on players who had major changes in their draft position from our Post Combine mock draft. I’m also going to ignore anyone who was in the third round previously and dropped out or who went undrafted before, but was now a third round pick. At that point in the draft, it is more personal preference anyway.
The Risers
Those players rising up our mock draft were an interesting mix of players being boosted by the pre-draft hype machine, those bouncing back from too much of a fall in the post combine mock draft, and those who our writers (or at least one of them) feel really strongly about. It is an interesting mix, so let’s take a closer look.
Allen Robinson, WR Penn State
Rose from 1.10 to 1.03
In the previous mock drafts, Robinson has been a late first or early second round draft choice – that meshes pretty well with where he is ranked on most boards. Some are going to balk at his selection at 1.03, especially since he is a Big 10 receiver, but at least look at what he brings to the table. He has nice size, great hands and is a very polished receiver. He also displayed great leaping ability time and time again, showing an affinity for going up and getting the ball in the air. He is ready to get on the field in the NFL from day one and could immediately step in and help a team in need of a wide receiver.
With that said, 1.03 is a little too rich for my blood when it comes to Robinson. I have several other receivers ahead of Robinson and I’m not sure he’ll be able to separate from NFL defensive backs. He is a player who I like more and more every time I watch his games. Dan, who picked him at 1.03, feels very strongly about him. I think it is important for all drafters to remember if you feel strongly about a player, you need to be aggressive and go get them. Even if all of the mock drafts and rankings show someone is a middle to late first round pick and you pick at 1.03, you go get them if they are the player you want. There is nothing worse than trading back in a draft and missing out on the player you really coveted but wouldn’t take because it was “too early” to draft them.
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Tre Mason, RB Auburn
Rose from 2.09 to 2.01
Let me start by saying Mason falling to the late second round was a major fluke. I don’t see that happening anywhere. I think he is much more of an early second selection, depending on which team selects him in the NFL Draft. He could slide up to the late first or slide down to the middle second, but based on talent he isn’t a late second round pick. He went at seventh overall in our pre-combine mock draft, so you can see opinions are all over the board on him.
One item of interest with Mason are the reports about his injury. He was asked back to the combine medical re-checks over some concerns teams had about an injured wrist. He never missed time with the injury in college, but there are reports of a fractured wrist which did not heal properly – this would require an operation to fix. While it is better than an ankle or knee injury, a healthy wrist is clearly important for a running back. The biggest question is of course if it is true. Mason insists he will not need any surgery to fix anything while “anonymous team sources” from “multiple teams” have told media members he would be required to have surgery if they drafted him. In the height of lying season, it is anyone’s guess. It wouldn’t be the first time an NFL team spread crazy rumors about a player in hopes he slides down draft boards – just go ask Dan Marino.
Isaiah Crowell, RB Alabama State
Rose from 2.08 to 2.03
Crowell has been a consistent riser over the course of the draft season. He has a big name and one of the best natural skill sets of the running back class. His vision and instincts are at or at least near the top of the 2014 group. The question every drafter is going to need to answer is when has the hype machine pushed a player so far up boards that the price is no longer worth the potential reward? I would argue the time is near if it hasn’t already passed us by.
I like the potential upside of Crowell, but in the early second round I feel you’re ignoring all of the risk. Crowell had multiple issues during his time leading up to and while playing at Georgia. Not only were there legal issues but maturity issues and effort issues were also a part of the equation. At Alabama State he kept his nose clean from a legal perspective, but even over the last two years there were definitely times when his effort was questionable. Put the character issues with a very questionable combine/pro-day and it raises more than a few red flags for me. He could end up being one of the best running backs from this draft class, but there are an awful lot of question marks about him. Drafting him in the early second is too much risk in my eyes.
Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M
Rose from 3.04 to 2.10
Manziel has been and continues to be one of the wild cards of this year’s draft. People seem to either love him or hate him and there aren’t too many people in the middle. No one really knows who the first quarterback off the board is going to be in the NFL Draft, but whoever it is will likely be the first fantasy quarterback drafted. If Manziel ends up being the first quarterback off the board in the NFL Draft, his stock is going to skyrocket in fantasy drafts as well. Those who are believers of Manziel will likely be considering him in the traditional spot for the first quarterback off the board – the late first or early second round.
Personally, I think there is a ton of risk with Manziel. Even if an NFL team does completely rework their game plan and style to fit Manziel’s strengths, I’m not sure he’ll be able to maintain his style of play in the NFL. Bigger, stronger, faster and smarter defenders will make the freelancing style of Manziel’s a little less effective. Plus, I’m not sure his body will be able to take the pounding from NFL defenses. With his style, I would expect him to miss several games a year. Even if he is the first quarterback off the board, I wouldn’t spend anything more than a late second round pick on him and maybe not even that.
Cody Latimer, WR Indiana
Rose from undrafted to 2.11
Prior to starting this mock draft, one of the questions I had was where Latimer would get drafted with all of the hype surrounding him. It was about one month ago when Latimer’s name suddenly started to pop up just about everywhere as being an underrated prospect who was quickly rising up NFL Draft boards. Some of the hype as even suggested he could go as early as a late first round selection. I don’t know if I see that kind of talent, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he were a second round upside pick in the NFL Draft by a team taking a shot as opposed to the day three pick he was originally slated to be.
Latimer was a high school basketball star who just didn’t have the size to play his first love in college. While he did play football in high school as well, it wasn’t his true passion and he’s a little raw as a result. He does have very good hands, good agility, excellent body control and outstanding leaping ability. His route running definitely needs improvement and when I watch him play he doesn’t flash the same athletic ability as he showed at his pro day. Times under 4.4 seconds in the 40 yard dash were reported, but I don’t see that kind of burst and speed when he plays. It will be very interesting to see who takes a chance on being able to develop him, but I think there is a pretty strong chance he’ll be overhyped and over drafted in fantasy drafts.
The Fallers
As some go up, others need to come down. With this year being even more volatile and unpredictable than past years, there are players who are all over the board at this point in time. The NFL Draft might help to settle out some of those issues, but it will also create some others as the classic talent vs situation debate will get into full swing. At the current point in time, there are a lot of lightning rod players who could go anywhere in a 6-12 pick range just based on the opinions of the people drafting in those slots. This is the best explanation for why most of the fallers took a nose dive.
Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State
Fell from 1.03 to 1.08
It has been a bit of a roller coaster ride for Cooks this off-season in terms of our staff mock drafts. He went from a late second round pick to third overall and now down to eighth. I have Cooks as my fourth best receiver and fourth best player overall in this draft so I think the eighth pick overall is a steal. There are question marks about his size, but those were eased for me when he showed off elite speed and agility at the NFL combine. He is the same size as Randall Cobb with much, much better measurables.
Not only is Cooks physically gifted in a way we don’t see very often, he was also extremely productive in college. After all, they don’t just give Biletnikoff Awards away to just anyone. With great physical ability and proven production in college at the highest level, I’m not sure what there isn’t to like with Cooks. In my opinion, there are a clear cut four players at the top of this draft and then there is everyone else – Cooks needs to be one of those four players. Seeing him slide to 1.08 is almost criminal.
Lache Seastrunk, RB Baylor
Fell from 1.11 to 2.08
After being a late first round selection for the last few mock drafts, Seastrunk fell pretty far down the second round this time. He ended up being the eighth running back drafted in this mock. I can understand some of the concerns about him. His size isn’t great and his play in the passing game was almost non-existent. In fact, he had more drops over his college career than he did receptions. Smaller running backs who can’t play in the passing game often times struggle to carve out a role for themselves. There are also some concerns about him being a product of his system.
With that being said, he shouldn’t be the eighth running back drafted in any fantasy drafts. His agility and ability to run with the ball should push him several spots higher. He can learn how to block and how to catch passes out of the backfield, but you can’t teach agility like he possesses. I’m not saying he needs to be a first round pick, but if he were around in the early second round of fantasy drafts he’s definitely on my short list of targets.
Jarvis Landry, WR LSU
Fell from 2.12 to 3.10
If you want a case study for the film versus measurables debate, Landry is your guy. He was more productive (though not as efficient) than his college teammate, Odell Beckham, during the 2013 season. He also looked to be the better receiver at times during the season, setting up what seemed to be a great debate about which LSU receiver should be drafted first. Then the combine rolled around and Beckham was one of, if not the best receiver there. Landry was easily the worst.
I’m really not a fan of Landry’s and a lot of other people are starting to come around to that line of thinking. He is just barely under six feet tall and doesn’t possess the athleticism to make up for his lack of size. Even with the prolific season in college, I don’t see him transitioning to the NFL. There are still believers out there who feel his game tape speaks for itself and he is every bit the part of an NFL receiver. He plays bigger and faster than what he really is, and they feel he has a fighter’s chance. I just don’t see it.
Devonta Freeman, RB Florida State
Fell from 2.10 to 3.11
Freeman is another player who seems to be on a steady slide down fantasy draft boards over the last few weeks and months. I think a big part of the problem is he doesn’t have any kind of special qualities to separate him from the pack. He isn’t blazing fast, doesn’t have lightning quick agility and isn’t overly powerful. He is faster, quicker and stronger than a lot of people are giving him credit for right now, but without any special characteristic, his role is uncertain in the NFL. This is leading to him being passed over in favor of higher upside selections in the third round.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, whenever I watch Freeman I get a little bored. He looks like a good, but not great, college running back – those players end up being career backups in the NFL if they can stay healthy. Think of a Javon Ringer or Jordan Todman. Neither of those players have the talent level to be a starting running back for any extended period of time. I don’t think Freeman does either.
That’s it for the closer look at the major risers and fallers from the final mock draft prior to the NFL Draft. For our next rookie mock draft, we’re going to be doing something a little special just for those of you who are starting your fantasy drafts as soon as next week! In order to give you the most up to date information, we will be starting our next mock draft on Saturday. I’ll be tweeting the picks as they come in with a write up to follow. If your draft starts on Sunday or Monday, or you just want some instant reactions, make sure you’re following.
Enjoy the draft!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
