Flashback: A Look Back at a 2014 Rookie Mock
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About a year ago, following the conclusion of the 2013 NFL draft, someone suggested I formulate a rookie mock draft…for 2014. With my interest in devy leagues growing and my infatuation with mock drafts in general, it seemed like a great fit.
With the 2014 NFL draft and dynasty rookie drafts inching ever so closer, it’s time to look back on that mock that is nearly a year old now. In the past twelve months, we’ve learned much about these specific prospects and the picture is much clearer now.
Note: The current projected draft position is based on the ADP of a recent series of rookie mock drafts.
Marqise Lee, WR USC
Projected Draft Position: 1.01
Current Projected Draft Position: 1.06
What’s Changed? Wide receiver Marqise Lee had a rough year in his final season at Southern California. He missed three games with injuries and was often held in check when he was on the field. Lee wasn’t even the best receiver on his team last year as sophomore Nelson Algholor was the more consistent threat for the Trojans. He did have to deal with some poor play at quarterback, which didn’t help his numbers. All of this reminds me of another former Pac 12 receiver, Keenan Allen. If Lee can have a rookie season similar to Allen, he’ll prove to be a great value in the middle of the first round of upcoming rookie drafts.
Sammy Watkins, WR CLEM
Projected Draft Position: 1.02
Current Projected Draft Position: 1.01
What’s Changed? At this time one year ago, it was Clemson’s Sammy Watkins who was coming off a down year, but Watkins’ performance, combined with the drop off from Lee has made Watkins into a near consensus choice as the 1.01 draft pick in dynasty rookie drafts. Many knock Watkins by noting that he’s not in the AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones tier since he’s a bit undersized compared to the “Big Six,” but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a very strong fantasy asset as a second tier receiver.
Lache Seastrunk, RB BAY
Projected Draft Position: 1.03
Current Projected Draft Position: 2.06
What’s Changed? I have to admit I didn’t see this coming, which is clear by my lofty prediction for former Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk. Seastrunk is a player who has been hyped for years. He was a highly rated player entering college, beginning his career at Oregon before moving on to the Bears. This time a year ago, Seastrunk was considered the top running back prospect, but he failed to live up to expectations, which included his own prediction he’d claim the Heisman Trophy. The knocks on Seastrunk began with his lack of action in the passing game. It is important to note that Baylor rarely uses their running backs as pass catchers, but even when given the opportunity, he did not fare well. It’s only become worse as draftniks and dynasty owners have analyzed Seastrunk’s game and he is now considered a mid second round rookie pick at bet, while he could fall to day three of the NFL Draft.
Jeremy Hill, RB LSU
Projected Draft Position: 1.04
Current Projected Draft Position: 2.09
What’s Changed? Former LSU running back Jeremy Hill had some off the field issues, which I noted when pegging him as the potential 1.04 pick. At the time, it was not known how serious those charges were. Reportedly, Hill was nearly kicked off the team permanently before his teammates voted to allow his return. Upon his return, he dominated the Tigers backfield, rushing for over 1,400 yards and finding the end zone sixteen times. Although Hill has his faults as a runner, he is mostly a victim of a couple of unique circumstances. First, the incoming class of running backs are so closely bunched that dynasty owners feel they can wait and use a later pick. This, combined with the overall devaluing of the running back position in dynasty and Hill has been falling to the mid to late second round. Landing in a good spot this weekend could vault him back into the first round.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB LOU
Projected Draft Position: 1.05
Current Projected Draft Position: 2.10
[inlinead]What’s Changed? No incoming rookie has lost more value this off-season than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who was once the favorite to be the top overall selection in the NFL Draft. Now, Bridgewater’s draft stock is up in the air. He could still be a top ten pick, but could slip to the second round as well. Obviously, this will have some effect on his dynasty value. When looking at things a year out, it’s easy to predict a quarterback going in the first round, but once we begin to learn more about players at some of the more desirable positions, it’s the quarterbacks who fall. Bridgewater will almost certainly not be a first round rookie pick in dynasty leagues and could even fall to the third round. Take advantage of this.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE WAS
Projected Draft Position: 1.06
Current Projected Draft Position: 2.12
What’s Changed? A year ago, Washington’s Austin Seferian-Jenkins was the hands down choice to be the top tight end off the board in both the NFL Draft and dynasty leagues. That is not the case any longer. Seferian-Jenkins dealt with some off field issues and ended up with college career lows in receptions and yardage. His struggles combined with the breakout performances from Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro have placed Seferian-Jenkins third on many draft boards. He’ll be an excellent value late in the second round of rookie drafts.
DeAnthony Thomas, RB ORE
Projected Draft Position: 1.07
Current Projected Draft Position: 4.02
What’s Changed? Last year, the Rams made Tavon Austin, the undersized but electric playmaker a top ten pick and he went on to be the choice of many as the 1.01 rookie pick. Based on this, I looked to Oregon’s DeAnthony Thomas as the next player who could be valued the same way. In 2013, Thomas missed a month in the middle of the season and had the lowest production of his career both as a runner and a receiver. It’s still unclear if Thomas will lineup up as a running back or wide receiver once he suits up for an NFL team, but his dynasty value is not nearly what I anticipated it could be. He’s merely a late round rookie flier as we enter draft weekend.
Tahj Boyd, QB CLEM
Projected Draft Position: 1.08
Current Projected Draft Position: Undrafted
What’s Changed? It’s difficult to remember when Clemson’s Tahj Boyd was rated so highly a year ago, but he was among the top quarterback prospects and was expected to make the dash for the NFL and the 2013 draft. Instead, he returned to college and despite the success of the Tigers team as a whole, and receivers Watkins and Martavis Bryant, Boyd’s flaws became clear. Boyd will likely be drafted at some point this weekend, but it will be nowhere near the first round and his dynasty value is non-existent.
Mike Evans, WR TEX A&M
Projected Draft Position: 1.09
Current Projected Draft Position: 1.02
What’s Changed? Finally some good news! Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans had some speculative devy and dynasty value this time last year, mostly based on his impressive size and beastly frame, which allowed him to go up and beat defenders for jump balls. There were several other wide receivers in this same mold though, but it was Evans who broke out in 2013. Despite having fewer receptions than in his previous season, Evans more than doubled his touchdown catches and improved his yardage total by almost 300 yards. He’s locked in as the 1.02 pick in nearly every rookie draft.
Jordan Matthews, WR VANDY
Projected Draft Position: 1.10
Current Projected Draft Position: 1.04
What’s Changed? A year ago, I predicted Jordan Matthews would be considered one of the safest picks in rookie drafts and would be knocked for not being flashy enough. Finally, I nailed one! Matthews had another superb season for Vanderbilt, again leading the SEC in receptions and becoming the SEC’s all-time leader in that category. Matthews has actually gotten a lot of hype and attention from many dynasty owners and is bunched into the second tier of wide receivers. He could go anywhere from 1.03 to the early second round based on the results of this weekend’s draft.
Ka’Deem Carey, RB ARI
Projected Draft Position: 1.11
Current Projected Draft Position: 2.02
What’s Changed? The story of former Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey mirrors that of Jeremy Hill I mentioned earlier. Carey also had some trouble with the law last off-season, though still managed to get on the field. He enjoyed a great season for the Wildcats, racking up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the second consecutive season, while leading the nation in touches. Carey has clearly shown he can be a workhorse, but his value is fading because of some of the same issues Hill and other running backs are facing, not to mention the terribly slow 40 yard dash time Carey posted at February’s scouting combine. For Carey, like many of the backs in this class, his short-term value is almost completely riding on which team selects him this weekend.
Silas Redd, RB USC
Projected Draft Position: 1.12
Current Projected Draft Position: Undrafted
What’s Changed? Former USC running back Silas Redd struggled since arriving from the controversy of Penn State over two years ago. In 2013, Redd dealt with a nagging knee injury that cost him more than half of the season. For Redd, it was his worst season as a collegiate and came at the worst time as he now prepares to enter the NFL Draft. So many running backs burst onto the scene or improved their stock in the past season, making Redd little more than an afterthought. He’s not guaranteed to be drafted this weekend and shouldn’t be taken in dynasty drafts.
Looking back at these twelve prospects who were once highly regarded reminds me how quickly things can change, not only in the NFL, but even for pre-NFL players. I’ll be back soon with a Flash Forward 2015 Rookie Mock Draft and I can’t wait to see all of the changes over the next calendar year!
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