Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
May is now upon us. Any other year, that means we would be discussing the impact of your favorite running back getting drafted as a backup to Jamaal Charles. Or what it means for Trent Richardson that the Colts drafted two running backs in the first five rounds. Of course this isn’t any other year. The NFL pushed the draft back a few weeks, which means there has been even more scrutiny and effort put into evaluating this year’s crop of rookies.
Sometimes it’s tough to tell what to believe and where to look, especially in a draft class like this one where it is very deep and without a whole lot of separation in certain spots. In order to help you sift through the mud and gunk that is “lying season” in the NFL, we’re here with around one of our staff only rookie mock drafts.
Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:
1) Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
2) Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
3) Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly fine. There is no “group think” here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens!
This is our last look at the draft order before we know the teams they will be playing for. Situation does matter (especially at the running back position), so the order will change by the end of draft weekend. Speaking of draft weekend, the next rookie mock will be started by our staff on draft weekend. I’ll put the picks as soon as the draft is complete with a write-up to follow a few days after the draft is completed.
If you want to take a look back at previous mock drafts, here are the links for you:
Pre-Combine Mock: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Post-Combine Mock: Round1, Round 2 and Round 3. Risers and Fallers article.
Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles as well as a risers and fallers article, but here is round one!
1.01 – Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.01
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.01
Eric H’s thoughts: I still have yet to see any real reason why Watkins shouldn’t be the pick here. While I don’t perceive him to be on the level of the “Big Six” receivers, that’s hardly an indictment of his talent – if it was easy to be elite, everyone would be. Ultimately, I think he’s the 2014 rookie receiver who possesses both the highest floor as well as the highest upside.
My thoughts: If I owned the 1.01 pick in any drafts, I wouldn’t even need to think about my selection. Watkins is the player I’m drafting – it’s really that simple. He is just electric with the ball in his hands. He has the playmaking ability of Percy Harvin with better size and better receiving skills. I agree with Eric that he won’t approach the top six receivers and he has the highest floor of the receiver class, but I’m not sure he has the highest upside. Regardless, he’s the no brainer pick at the start of the draft in all formats.
1.02 – Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.03
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.02
Jeff M’s thoughts: I am one of those who thinks you can make a very strong case for Evans at the 1.01. This isn’t so much of a knock on Sammy Watkins as it is a thumbs up to what I think Evans can be in the NFL. Aside from some mild concerns about his top-end speed, there really isn’t much bad to say about the guy. He is huge, has great hands, isn’t bothered by double teams and shows great physicality both with and without that ball in his hands. If he can land on a team with a competent deep threat, Evans has the polish to be a top 20 wide receiver out of the gate.
My thoughts: I really like Evans and I think he is a lock for the second spot in all rookie drafts. He has the highest upside of any wide receiver in my opinion, but the floor is a little lower than Watkins which is why I have Watkins higher. The reason I think his ceiling is higher is he has something in common with the top six dynasty receivers that Watkins doesn’t have – size. To be an elite receiver in the NFL, you need to have the complete package, which includes a certain physical stature. As for speed, he was right on par with Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant in the 40 yard dash. Evans is the complete package.
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1.03 – Allen Robinson, WR Penn State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.02
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.10
Dan’s thoughts: After spending hours watching the other wideouts available after Watkins and Evans, I’m convinced Robinson is the best of the rest by a wide margin. He possesses great hands, smooth route running skills and an incredible 42 inch vertical. That leaping ability along with the impeccable timing he displayed when catching the ball at its highest point while in college should make Robinson an elite red zone target at the next level. While many receivers need a year or two before making a contribution to fantasy teams, Robinson could make an immediate impact depending on where he ends up. Until we know the landing spots of the top tailbacks in the draft, I feel Robinson is absolutely the only player worthy of the third pick in rookie drafts.
My thoughts: The third pick continues to be where this draft class gets interesting. If you ask ten different people who they feel the third pick should be, I would be surprised if any one player received even three votes. The draft will help push someone to the forefront, but right now it is a bit of a free for all. Personally, Beckham is the third player on my board, but we’ll have more on him later. As for Robinson, I’ve gone back and forth a little bit on him. He has great hands and superb leaping ability, but he struggles to create separation at times. I question how that will translate to the NFL where there is typically even less separation due to a higher skill level on defenses. If he can still win those contested matchups, he should have a good career.
1.04 – Marqise Lee, WR USC
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.02
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.04
Scott P’s thoughts: I think Lee is getting the Keenan Allen and Eddie Lacy treatment, dropping in rookie drafts more than he deserves due to things out of his control. I still like him a lot. I’m no scout, but he looks explosive to me. I’m not concerned about his combine performance because he gets separation. USC had a horrid quarterback situation last year and I’m betting on Lee to rise up as a productive NFL receiver. He is turning into a very nice value pick.
My thoughts: I’m not as big of a fan of Lee as Scott is from the looks of things. I’m also not quite sure how anyone can be a value pick at fourth overall. I like Lee more around the seventh through ninth picks in the draft than in the top half of the round. He doesn’t have the size I like and the athletic ability isn’t spectacular enough for it to make up for that deficiency. Maybe there is a little bit of anti-USC bias on my part as they tend to look a lot better in college than they do in the NFL on the offensive side of the ball. I just have been a little disappointed with Lee over the last 12 plus months. I was expecting so much more.
1.05 – Carlos Hyde, RB Ohio State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.10
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.07
Tim’s thoughts: I was surprised Hyde made it to 1.05. I debated him vs. Brandin Cooks, but Cooks’ size concerns me. It would have come down to team needs in a real draft, but in a mock I went with the player I think offers the most value. I expect Hyde to be the first running back off the board in the NFL Draft, likely in the first half of the second round.
My thoughts: Like Tim, Hyde is my top running back on the board and my fifth overall player in this draft. His size and power combined with his ability to be an above average pass catcher out of the backfield makes me think he has bell cow ability in a league seeing fewer and fewer players with that ability. I don’t expect any running backs to go in the first round of the NFL Draft due to the devaluation of the position, which makes the top of the second round and teams like the Browns, Falcons and Titans a real possibility. If that should happen, Hyde’s value will shoot up.
1.06 – Eric Ebron, TE North Carolina
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.06
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.06
Ghost’s thoughts: It’s really tough to pass on Ebron, especially in a league where big, quick tight ends are only increasing in value year over year. I have no problem seeing Ebron as a top five tight end within three years with a ceiling around the top three depending on where he lands.
My thoughts: As quickly as running backs are sliding down NFL draft boards, tight ends are rising up. They are also fairly situation dependent as well, which means Ebron’s landing spot will have a lot to do with where he ends up going in fantasy drafts. He has the potential to slide even higher in rookie draft or he could fall down to the end of the first round, but he’s going in the first round somewhere even in the worst situation. I’m not sure if the ceiling is quite at the top three level, but it could be close. If you need tight end help, Ebron is a solid pick in the middle of round one.
1.07 – Jordan Matthews, WR Vanderbilt
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.05
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.08
Brian’s thoughts: I love the versatility and size of Matthews. He can lineup inside or outside and his 6’3” frame is the prototypical size of a WR1 in the NFL. Matthews shares bloodlines with Jerry Rice and leaves the SEC as the career leader in receptions and yards. Matthews does not have elite speed and could add ten pounds to his frame. He will be 22 heading into his rookie campaign, but his maturity and polish should help him produce fantasy numbers faster than some of the players taken ahead of him in the draft.
My thoughts: Opinions on Matthews are all over the board depending on who you ask. Lots of people, like Brian and I love him for his size, maturity, and polish. He has been successful for years, is a team leader, and a player with a great work ethic. His detractors will point out the perceived lack of athletic ability. Honestly, I don’t see it. At 6’3” he ran a 4.46 second time in the 40 yard dash with very good times and measurements in the other drills. He has more athletic ability than people think, but he isn’t very flashy. For me, he’s a great target in the middle of the first round and if he slips to the late first I might be trading up to grab him.
1.08 – Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.10
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.03
Jeff B’s thoughts: Blend a Biletnikoff Award winning season, a spectacular highlight reel and an eye-popping performance at the NFL Combine and I have no idea how Cooks isn’t unanimously considered a top four or five pick in this rookie draft. He’s the number three wide receiver on my board, so I love that he fell to me here, especially given that I consider him the second safest prospect (after Watkins) in the whole draft amongst position players.
My thoughts: Like Jeff, I’m really high on Cooks and I’m surprised he slipped all the way down to the 1.08 pick. He’s my fourth overall player in this draft for fantasy purposes, but I can understand some of the hesitation on him. His size is far from ideal. 5’10” and under 190 pounds is small enough to raise some flags. It is the same size as players like Wes Welker, Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb though, which means it isn’t too small. The fact Cooks is truly elite when it comes to his athletic ability erases those fears for me. In a real draft, if Cooks was sliding, I would be trying to jump up and grab him without a doubt. If he is used right, he could be a beast.
1.09 – Odell Beckham, WR LSU
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.05
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.05
Eric O’s thoughts: I thought Brandin Cooks was going to somehow slip to me at 1.09, he didn’t, so I took the next highest rated player shockingly still available. By now you know the knocks on OBJ, he’s a flat 6′ and 194 pounds but he oozes explosiveness and makes ridiculous catches. If he lands with a team like Philadelphia or Carolina, he could vault into the 1.04 range of rookie drafts quite easily.
My thoughts: The only thing more surprising than Cooks sliding to 1.08 was Beckham sliding to 1.09. Beckham is my third ranked player overall and I can’t imagine why he would still be around at 1.09. He is bigger than Cooks, more explosive and almost as lightning quick. Plus, I think he will be a better outside receiver in the NFL because of the catches and body control he shows. He isn’t perfect, but he’s easily one of the best receivers in this draft class and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes as high as 1.03 in rookie drafts.
1.10 – Kelvin Benjamin, WR Florida State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.09
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.03
Ken K’s thoughts: Brutal. Had this been a real draft, I would have been working the phones pretty hard to move up in an effort to secure Cooks or Beckham. As it stands, I end up with Benjamin, who probably belongs right around this range. He’s a solid prospect and I believe he has tremendous upside, but a pretty low floor, just to make it interesting. Truth be told, if this was a real draft, I’d still be working the phones…but this time to move back. The middle tiers of players in this draft are extremely close and this could be one of those years where we have many second round rookie picks turn out to be much better than the first rounders.
My thoughts: The biggest receiver in this draft class has a chance to be a forgotten man when rookie drafts roll around. He isn’t the fastest and he is far from polished, but he’s 6’5” with massive arms and hands. That makes him an instant red zone threat. If he ends up on a good offense, he could push for double digit touchdowns as a rookie. The downside from my point of view is I question if he has the skill set to ever be more than a situational receiver. If he can’t evolve beyond being a red zone threat, his upside is pretty limited. I’m not as high on him as most are, but the late first or early second is right about where I would expect him to go in most drafts.
1.11 – Ka’Deem Carey, RB Arizona
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.04
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.09
Ryan M’s thoughts: I know Carey’s stock has dropped since the college season ended, but he’s still among my favorite backs. He’s shown he can handle a big workload and produce. He also has a good mix of size and speed. Considering the depth of the wide receiver position likely allows me to grab one later, I can take a running back late in the first round. I also considered Isaiah Crowell, Donte Moncrief and Davante Adams.
My thoughts: Opinions on Carey are all over the board. Ryan clearly likes him and it is well known Carey is towards the bottom of my top ten running backs. I think his numbers were inflated by the system he played under. I also think he is a below average athlete for the position when compared to most NFL running backs. As for the workload, anyone who was concerned about Montee Ball last year needs to look at the numbers. Ball had 876 touches in three years while being 215 pounds. Carey had 820 touches in three years and is 20 pounds lighter. I wasn’t worried about Ball’s carries because of his size, but with the smaller framed Carey I’m a bit more concerned. You can add in some minor character concerns as well. I’m really not a fan of his.
1.12 – Bishop Sankey, RB Washington
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.11
Post-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.04
My thoughts: Sankey isn’t a player who is going to wow you with highlight reel runs or appear in a lot of SportsCenter clips, which might mean he gets overlooked by a lot of people. However, he is a very solidly build 5’9”, 209 pound prospect who does just about everything better than most. He might not be the fastest, the strongest or the quickest player in the class, but when you’re near the top in almost all of those categories, you should have a productive NFL career.
If you watch his games, you see a very complete running back. He can catch the ball, run inside and outside, break off 60 yard runs and move the pile at the goal line. Unlike a lot of the other running backs in this class, he played in a pro-style offense meaning his stats can actually be viewed as somewhat reliable. He’s a career 5.43 yards per carry player with a little over 600 carries under his belt. He’s the complete package. He might not be elite, but he’s one of the best collection of skills in this draft at the running back position. He’s also the rare running back in this class without injury or character red flags. I think it is a mistake if you’re viewing him as a second round fantasy target. He should be one of the first running backs off the board at this point in time and he’s a steal at the end of the first round.
That concludes our look at the first round. We will be back with the later rounds very soon!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
