B1G Receiver Analysis

Editor’s Note: This article is a Dynasty Scouts exclusive. Remember, our new Dynasty Scouts section focuses on the stars of tomorrow, with a laser focus on High School recruits and College players who look to have the talent to be future assets in dynasty leagues and have value today in devy leagues. This is also the debut of Russell Clay, one of our new writers. We welcome Russell to DLF/Dynasty Scouts and look forward to more of his work in the future!

Man on a mission, that’s me.

A scorned lover who’s fallen for the same trick time and again. Always the same result,  me crying in my room as I send former fantasy lusts to the waiver wire. Arrelious Benn, Ted Ginn, BJ Cunningham, Devin Thomas,  A.J Jenkins and DeVier Posey…I’ve had enough. This is the end of the road for you, Big Ten wide receivers, I’m about to shine the light on your deceitful ways. Or am I? This isn’t something I’ve researched before, just experienced in small, personal (and painful) doses. The theory/idea I’m setting out to prove is that, regardless of draft position, Big Ten receivers (for whatever reason) haven’t worked out in the NFL over the past decade or so.

Let’s take this journey together. Below I’m gonna list B1G receivers from every draft class since 2000. I’ll see you folks on the other side.

2000

Plaxico Burress,  Michigan St (1st)
Gari Scott, Michigan St (4th)

2001

David Terrell, Michigan (1st)
Chris Chambers, Wisconsin (2nd)
Vinny Sutherland, Purdue (5th)
Kevin Kasper, Iowa (6th)
Reggie Germany, Ohio St (7th)
Ken- Yon Rambo, Ohio St 7th)

2002

Antwaan Randle-El, Indiana (2nd)
Marquis Walker, Michigan (3rd)
Ron Johnson, Minnesota (4th)
Herb Haygood, Michigan St (5th)
Sam Simmons, Northwestern (5th)
Kahlil Hill, Iowa (6th)

2003

Charles Rodgers, Michigan St (1st)
Bryant Johnson, Penn St (1st)
Brandon Lloyd, Illinois (4th)
Walter Young, Illinois (7th)

2004

Lee Evans, Wisconsin (1st)
Michael Jenkins, Ohio St (1st)
Drew Carter, Ohio St (5th)

2005 

Braylon Edwards, Michigan (1st)
Courtney Roby, Indiana (3rd)

2006

Santonio Holmes, Ohio St (1st)
Brandon Williams, Wisconsin (3rd)
Michael Robinson, Penn St (4th) **Switched to FB**
Jason Avant, Michigan (4th)
Jonathan Orr, Wisconsin (6th)
Ethan Kilmer, Penn St (7th)

2007

Ted Ginn, Ohio St (1st)
Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio St ( 1st)
Steve Breaston, Michigan (5th)
Roy Hall, Ohio St (5th)

2008

Devin Thomas, Michigan St (2nd)
James Hardy, Indiana (2nd)
Mario Manningham, Michigan (3rd)
Paul Hubbard, Wisconsin (6th)
Adrian Arrington, Michigan (7th)

2009

Brian Robiskie, Ohio St (2nd)
Derrick Williams, Penn St (3rd)
Deon Butler, Penn St (3rd)
Brian Hartline, Ohio St (4th)

2010

Arrelious Benn, Illinois (2nd)
Eric Decker, Minnesota (3rd)

2011

Tandon Doss, Indiana (4th)
Niles Paul, Nebraska (5th)

2012 

AJ Jenkins, Illinois (1st)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St (3rd)
Keshawn Martin, Michigan St (4th)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin (4th)
B.J. Cunningham, Michigan St (6th)
Marvin McNutt, Iowa (6th)
Junior Hemingway, Michigan (7th)

2013 

Denard Robinson, Michigan (5th) ** switched to RB**

For those who made it through the carnage, I have a few thoughts/stats/ ramblings.

1. 54 WRs were drafted in that span
2. Ten were first round picks.
3. Names of the first round picks were Plaxico Burress, David Terrell, Braylon Edwards, Charles Rodgers, Bryant Johnson, Lee Evans, Michael Jenkins, Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez and AJ Jenkins
4. A.J. Jenkins was the only first rounder between 2008 and 2013
5. Names of second round picks were Chris Chambers, Antwaan Randle-El, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Brian Robiskie and Arrelious Benn
6. 24 WRs were picked in the first three rounds
7. 14 1,000+ yard seasons emerged from the group (four, Plaxico Burress)  (one, Chris Chambers) (one,Brandon Lloyd) (two, Lee Evans)(one, Braylon Edwards) (one,Santonio Holmes) (one, Steve Breaston) (one, Brian Hartline) (two, Eric Decker)
8. Seven 1,200+ yard seasons have been posted (1,Eric Decker) (1, Braylon Edwards) (1, Lee Evans) (1,Santonio Holmes) (2,Plaxico Burress) (1, Brandon Lloyd)
9. One of those seasons was over 1,400+ yards (Brandon Lloyd)
10. Six 10+ TD Seasons have been recorded ( 2, Eric Decker) (2, Plaxico Burress) (1,Braylon Edwards) (1, Brandon Lloyd)

What does this say?

I’m not exactly sure, but it definitely confirms what I suspected. Not only is there a complete lack of fantasy production, but there were also some of the biggest draft whiffs of the past two decades. Players like Charles Rodgers and David Terrell were ‘can’t miss’  prospects coming out. Ted Ginn was also a huge waste of a top ten selection. Bryant Johnson, Anthony Gonzalez, A.J. Jenkins and Michael Jenkins as first rounders? Yikes. Santonio Holmes, Lee Evans and Braylon Edwards had flashes of success, followed by years of frustrating ineptitude. None of these players panned out, especially considering what they cost in dynasty leagues their first few years.

This could all be a huge coincidence….or it could be that the B1G has the national perception of being a power conference when they really aren’t.

I may not totally ignore B1G WRs from now on, but the extra coverage (TV and News) and draft position (NFL Draft) effects the perception of dynasty leaguers more than realized. If you go and check #4 on the fact/stat/rambling list, It appears the NFL has begun to catch on as well. A heavy dose of firsts were used in the early to mid 2000s, followed by a steep drop off in 2008-2013, with only A.J. Jenkins (he barely snuck in as pick #30) being sleeked in that time. From now on, I will consider B1G on the same par as the Mountain West and Big East in terms of competition. Essentially, a step below the big boys ( SEC, Pac12, Big 12).  Also, I’ll be instantly hedging my opinion of anyone who comes out of my native conference (Wisconsin fan). I’m looking at you, Allen Robinson and Cody Latimer.

This isn’t saying you shouldn’t watch every prospect individually and make specific opinions, that’s an important part of the process.  However,  It’s important to realize the odds are against you banking on B1G receivers with your precious rookie or devy picks.

Consider the fact that only two receivers have been ‘successful’ (WR1/WR2 numbers multiple seasons) fantasy players (Plaxico and Decker) in the past 13 years, TWO.  Out of 24 top three round draft picks, two players held it together for two+ years. And NONE of the other 30 drafted later became consistent fantasy contributors.  For whatever reason, be it injuries, bad team situation, or situations off the field, the B1G WRs have mostly been a complete embarrassment the past decade and a half, and it’s about time we take notice!