Ladarius Green, Revisited

Rob Pitzer Posted On April 9, 2014

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Editor’s Note: This article marks the debut of Rob Pitzer, a new DLF writer. Rob is an incredibly respected member of the fantasy community and DLF is lucky to have him aboard. We look forward to much more of Rob’s work in the future.

Before the draft in 2012, I had Ladarius Green as the second best receiver in the class. A lot has changed in the wide receiver models since 2012 — namely the addition of explosion and agility data and a method for interpreting them in context, but those changes didn’t affect Green’s profile much.

With what we know today — that Josh Gordon entered the supplemental draft and tore it up, and that Stephen Hill came down firmly on the “bust” side of boom/bust — I think Green remains the second best receiver from the class. I thought it would be interesting to take a longer look.

At the time of the combine, Green weighed in at 238 pounds. Based on the rest of his profile, I expected him to drop a few pounds, as Calvin Johnson (239) and Vincent Jackson (241) had done. What’s actually happened though is that Green worked to add weight, has put on a couple pounds and is currently listed at 240 (after being referenced at as much as 247).

That weight at Green’s height (77.75″) is just about as firmly in-between big wide receiver and small tight end as you could get – with 240 pounds being heavier than any other receiver in my database, and a BMI of 27.9 being smaller than any successful tight end. He’s built like a receiver and is as fast as a receiver, but his height and weight individually are more typical of tight ends.

He’s a true tweener.

Having said that, I think treating him as a really big receiver makes more sense than treating him as a tight end. Before he left the Chargers, A.J. Smith referenced the fact Green would never be a great blocker. At 240 with a long build, that’s almost certainly true and since the ability to block linemen and linebackers is what differentiates tight ends from receivers, we’ll consider him as the latter.

Who then does he look like? As usual, we’ll start with his measurables:

NCAA Performance: +.07 (average for a WR, strong for a TE)
Height: 77.75″ (extremely Tall)
BMI/Size: 27.9 (Big)
Speed: 4.45s forty/1.53s 10-split (exceptional speed at his size)
Explosion: 34.5″ vert, 124 broad (average explosion)
Agility: 4.47s shuttle, 7.12s three cone (below average agility)

There are two receivers with similar profiles — Brandon Marshall and Mike Evans (who are about as similar to each other as you ever find — more on that later in the Evans profile). Like Green, both are quite tall, play at similar BMIs, are roughly similar in terms of speed and explosion and have nearly identical NCAA performance measures.

The biggest points of difference are Green possesses more long speed, is more than an inch taller and plays ten pounds heavier than both. Not surprisingly given the size differences, Green’s also somewhat less agile – average (or below) even by tight end standards. Overall, that’s a pretty good fit given that Green’s a non-standard player – with the differences mostly accumulating in favor of Green (bigger and faster with similar athleticism and footballing skill usually wins).

As a spot check, what do we find if we look at Green in the context of tight ends? When Green was listed at 247, I finally got around to plugging him into that model as well and the results were similarly promising.

The two best fits there using the data we have available were Rob Gronkowski (-20 pounds, plus a lot of speed) and Tony Gonzalez (most likely plus a lot of speed, but with less explosion). Green’s NCAA performance metric is much stronger at tight end than it is at wide receiver and that, along with his combination of height, speed and acceptable explosion puts him in rare company. As mentioned above, however, he’s undersized as a tight end (especially at 240 instead of 247) and I put a lot less stock in these comparisons. A tight end without bulk is not really a tight end anymore.

Trying to pin down the “best” comparisons and making predictions based on them can be tricky, but doing it when you know none of them are perfect matches adds even more uncertainty. So, coming into the league or after his rookie year, Green had a lot of question marks around him. In fact, the doubts about Green’s natural position, along with coming out of a non-BCS conference, probably explain why he wasn’t drafted until pick #110 (nine spots from Marshall [119] – who also came out of a non-BCS conference and arrived with potential character doubts).

But with the benefit of Green’s 2013 performance as an input, I believe those doubts are proving unfounded. The results of his first limited action are in line with the profile matches above – that’s usually an excellent signal.

In NFL terms, he may be better suited as an outside wide receiver, but either way his coach has suggested that not using him more in 2013 was a mistake. So his opportunities should only increase going forward.

In fantasy terms, I think you have to consider his upside as similar to Brandon Marshall’s – with the possibility his points will be scored at the tight end position. Given that one of his best comparisons, Mike Evans, is currently the 1.02 rookie pick without proving anything at the NFL level yet, I’d be willing to take Green towards the top of the draft if he were in this year’s rookie class and if that was the only way to land him. As it is, I think he’s a great buy at his current valuation as a mid-first.

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