Quarterback Sleepers
Editor’s Note: This article was penned by Member Corner writer Paul Perdichizzi
The quarterback position in fantasy football has become harder to value over the last few years. With the rise of athletic quarterbacks who can use their legs as much as their arms, the days of strictly pocket passing quarterbacks are over.
When evaluating the quarterback position today, you can no longer rank the quarterbacks on their passing numbers alone as the rushing totals that some put up can have a great impact in their overall value. Another impact on quarterback rankings is how the league is set up in terms of how many points passing touchdowns are worth in relation to rushing and receiving touchdowns. The other significant factor in rating quarterbacks is the rise of two quarterback leagues, especially in dynasty leagues. While the idea of any quarterback being unknown is unrealistic with all the resources out there today for fantasy football, some quarterbacks can fly under the radar as they are second on the depth chart or have not been given their opportunity yet. Below is a list of four quarterback sleepers who should be on the radar as stashes in deep dynasty leagues and, especially, in two quarterback dynasty leagues.
Brian Hoyer, QB CLE
A quarterback who turns 29 in October, entering his sixth season in the league and on his fourth team after going undrafted in the 2009 draft, is not usually considered a sleeper with significant upside in fantasy football. Hoyer, though, could potentially have the opportunity to be this rare exception. After going undrafted out of Michigan State, he spent his first three seasons in the NFL as a member of the New England Patriots. During his second and third year in New England, he was the backup to Tom Brady. Before the start of the 2012 season, Hoyer was cut by the Patriots and spent most of that season unemployed. Late in the season, due to a rash of injuries, he was signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers for weeks 12 and 13 before, again, being cut. He was picked up off waivers by the quarterback needy Arizona Cardinals, where he played in weeks 16 and 17 of that season. During the 2013 off-season, he was again cut but he quickly signed a two year deal with the Cleveland Browns to back up Brandon Weeden.
That’s quite a ride.
When Weeden suffered an injury early in the season, Hoyer stepped in and produced two wins in weeks three and four. He completed 30 of 54 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Minnesota Vikings in week three and completed 25 of 38 passes for 269 yards and another two touchdowns in a week four win over the Cincinnati Bengals. He was producing and it seemed as if he would be given the chance to be the starter for the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, in his next start in week five, Hoyer suffered a torn right ACL and was placed on injured reserve, ending his season. Since the 2014 off-season started, Cleveland has cut Weeden, the former first round pick and let Jason Campbell leave via free agency. As of now, Hoyer is atop the depth chart once again but many believe they will draft one of the rookie first-tier quarterbacks such as Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles or Johnny Manziel with their fourth pick in the upcoming draft. While that is still possible, it is not as much a slam dunk as once thought, they could choose to take a more elite prospect along the offensive line such as Greg Robinson or Jake Matthews or add another offensive weapon in wide receiver Sammy Watkins. If they choose that path, they may take a quarterback with their second first round pick or with a selection early in round two with Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo as top options. With the possibility passing on a quarterback at 1.04, Hoyer may get a chance to be the opening day starter this upcoming season. As his numbers showed, even with limited playing time, Hoyer could potentially be a fantasy asset. With a star wide receiver in Josh Gordon, a rising star in tight end Jordan Cameron, a strong offensive line and running back Ben Tate added via free agency, the pieces are in place for Cleveland to have a very good offense.
Ryan Mallett, QB NE
During the 2010 college football season, Ryan Mallett was considered one of the elite quarterback prospects in the country and many expected him to be a first round selection in the 2011 draft. During the evaluation process leading up to the draft though, many started to question the former Arkansas Razorbacks’ work ethic, maturity, willingness to be coached and character. He saw his stock take a significant fall as he was not drafted in the first or the second round of the draft. His fall was finally halted by the Patriots with the #74 overall pick in the third round. Mallett, at 6’6”, 245 pounds offers elite size, a strong arm to make all the throws and good accuracy. Over his first three years in the league, he has done very little other than holding the clipboard. He was third on the depth chart for his first season and moved behind Tom Brady the last two years, becoming his primary backup. While Tom Brady will be 37 before the 2014 season, all reports have him playing at least three more years, which means Mallett is not going to get his chance in New England.
Mallett is entering his last season under contract with the Patriots before he will be an unrestricted free agent. Many assumed the Patriots drafted and groomed him as an asset to flip in a trade for a second or third round pick. To this point, that has not materialized, even though there have been rumors over the years that teams have contacted the Patriots asking about his availability. With the draft a little over a month away, I believe it is possible the Patriots will finally listen more closely when teams come asking about Mallett. If offered a second or third round selection in this draft or 2015, I believe they will pull the trigger and make the deal to get something before he leaves next off-season as a free agent. It is possible a quarterback-needy team near the top of the draft, such as the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns or Minnesota Vikings do not want to use an early round selection on any of the rookie quarterbacks and will make a move for Mallett, allowing him to compete with a veteran already on the roster. If Mallet ends up on a roster where he can win the starting job, I believe in his talents and his ability to be a fantasy producer. If he is available in your league, try to make room for him and see how the next few months play out. If he remains on the Patriots’ roster for the upcoming season, store his name away and before the end of the 2014 season, try to get him on your roster before he becomes a free agent.
Brock Osweiler, QB DEN
When the Denver Broncos signed Peyton Manning during the 2012 free agency period, they did so without knowing what type of player would be returning from his serious neck injuries. To protect themselves, they went into the 2012 draft looking to draft a potential franchise quarterback to groom into their starter in case Manning never recovered to become the player he once was. In the second round of the draft, they selected Osweiler with the #57 overall pick out of Arizona State. Osweiler, who is 6’8” and 240 pounds, only started one year for the Sun Devils and was regarded as a project entering the NFL, but one with tremendous upside and potential. Over the last two years, Osweiler never got any significant playing time, as Manning showed he was over his injuries and regained his position as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. While Manning has looked dominant the past two years in Denver (especially last year after breaking almost every significant passing record), it is easy to forget he is now 38 years old. It is possible Manning plays another three more years, but it is also just as possible he plays only one or two more. Denver has loaded up in free agency this year to try and get back to the Super Bowl because they realize their window is closing as Manning’s career comes to an end. If Manning was to win the Super Bowl this year, he may follow the lead of his boss, John Elway, walking away from the game on a high note. When Manning retires, it is possible the keys to the offense will be given to Osweiler. If so, Osweiler would step into an offense that is loaded with talent at all skill positions. He would be in a position to become a very productive quarterback in his first season under center. Depending on the size and setup of your league, Osweiler may be on a roster already, but he’s more likely available. If you have Manning or the capability to stash a quarterback potentially for a few years, try to get Osweiler on your roster this off-season.
Mike Glennon, QB TB
With the pick #73 in the third round of the 2013 draft, Tampa Bay selected Mike Glennon out of North Carolina State. Coming out of college, at 6’6” and 225 pounds, Glennon was a prototypical pocket passer with a big arm, but accuracy issues. By the fourth game of the season, the Bucs had given the starting job to Glennon, who kept it the remainder of the campaign. Overall, Glennon had a successful rookie season, better than any other rookie quarterback last year. On the season, he passed for 2,609 yards, 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions and also had a quarterback rating of 83.9. His accuracy issues showed as he finished 2014 with only a 59.4 completion percentage, but as a rookie playing in a vertical based passing offense set up by offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan, those numbers were not a major negative. Coming off a very productive first season, it seemed as Glennon would get a chance to build upon that and show that he could develop into the Bucs long term starting quarterback. That all changed when Greg Schiano was fired and replaced with former Chicago Bears Head Coach Lovie Smith.
Early in free agency, the Bucs quickly signed Josh McCown to a two year deal and Smith anointed him as the starting quarterback. Just like that, Glennon went from a promising young starting quarterback to a back-up of a 34-year old journeyman quarterback coming off one productive stretch with Chicago in 2013. I am not sold on McCown being the answer for the Bucs without having Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on the receiving end of his passes. While Glennon is probably on a roster in most every dynasty league, his owner may be willing to sell low. I believe Glennon will end up reclaiming the starting job in Tampa at some point and still has the potential to be the long term starter in Tampa Bay.
While these are the names of four quarterbacks I would target as stashes in deep dynasty leagues or two quarterback leagues, some other names of established starters entering the season that could see their value increase this upcoming year are Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams, Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins, Jake Locker of the Tennessee Titans and EJ Manual of the Buffalo Bills.
For any further questions, use the comments below or contact me on twitter at @paulie23ny