Dynasty Stock Market: The Overvalued and Undervalued

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 3, 2014

We are down to just over a month until the NFL draft and the dynasty rookie drafts that will soon follow. Although dynasty owners will spend much of their free time preparing for said drafts, it’s crucial to remember to focus on the players who compose your current team as well. With your fellow league members also beginning (or continuing) to prepare for the rookie draft, this is a great opportunity to make some trades that could lead your team on a long playoff run in 2014.

As I look over the dynasty ADP data from March, there are many players who stand out as being overvalued or undervalued. Of course, many of these were impacted by the recent free agency moves made around the league, but the values of those players will become clearer in just a few days when the April ADP data is finalized. For now, I’ll look back once more at March’s data to identify some players you might want to target in a trade, along with some players you might want to unload before their value drops.

Undervalued

Andy Dalton, QB CIN
March ADP: 171

dalton Maybe it’s the red hair, but Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton continues to be blasted by football fans and fantasy owners alike. In his three seasons with the Bengals, he’s led the team to the playoffs each year and in the past two seasons, he’s posted QB1 numbers. I can see the perspective of Bengals fans that he is likely not good enough to ever win a Super Bowl for that team, but dynasty owners should be taking advantage of all the negative commentary regarding Dalton. Considering Dalton was the twentieth quarterback off the board in March, behind rookie Blake Bortles among others, Dalton makes an excellent target for dynasty teams with a hole at the quarterback position.

Bernard Pierce, RB BAL
March ADP: 100

Following a breakout rookie season, expectations were high for running back Bernard Pierce entering the 2013 season. Like the Ravens offense as a whole, Pierce disappointed, rushing for less than 500 yards and seeing his yards per carry drop to 2.9, down from a solid 4.9 as a rookie. With the off-season troubles of starter Ray Rice (more on that later) Pierce is likely to be given an even larger role in 2014. The Ravens are expected to add another running back, likely through the upcoming NFL Draft, but Pierce knows the system and would have the advantage over any of the current crop of incoming rookie backs. With an ADP placing him just inside of dynasty’s top 100 players, Pierce offers solid value for owners who have waited on running backs in a startup, or simply those looking for some high-upside depth for their existing team.

Robert Woods, WR BUF
March ADP: 120

Wide receiver Robert Woods enjoyed a solid, but unspectacular rookie season in 2013. He hauled in 40 passes for nearly 600 yards and three scores, despite the quarterback issues that plagued the Bills last year. Of course, the team expected rookie EJ Manuel to come in, hold down the job and win, but he struggled and battled injuries. Nearly 70% of Woods’ production came when Manuel was at the helm. With Manuel out, Woods was fairly quiet from a production standpoint. With the team sticking with Manuel, it’s safe to expect more from Woods this season, especially when the rumors of veteran Stevie Johnson being near the end of his Bills’ career is factored into the equation.

Greg Olsen, TE CAR
March ADP: 131

Greg Olsen has always been a solid tight end, but we didn’t really see what a factor he could be in fantasy leagues until his arrival in Carolina three seasons ago. Three of his four highest targeted seasons have come in his three years with the Panthers, which has coincided with the arrival of quarterback Cam Newton into the league. His best two fantasy seasons have been the past two years, when he finished as TE7 in both 2012 and 2013. Olsen is easily the top receiving threat in the Panthers’ offense and although it is well-known that the team will add a rookie wideout through the draft, Olsen still has an excellent chance to best last year’s career high in targets of 111. In March, he was the 17th tight end off the board, 25 spots behind the fading Jason Witten.

Overvalued

Nick Foles, PHI QB
March ADP: 57

Like many, I was completely wrong about Nick Foles. Once Chip Kelly was hired as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, I envisioned veteran Michael Vick running that offense until he couldn’t anymore, at which point Kelly would grab his hand-picked replacement. I missed because I wasn’t as familiar with his offensive scheme as I could have been, assuming the more mobile quarterback would be a better fit, as Foles is anything but mobile. He does have a strong arm and he’s a smart quarterback, which fit Kelly’s system just fine. Foles exploded and so did his dynasty value. As a result, he’s now being drafted as the QB5, on average. I like Foles as much as anyone and would be glad to have him on my dynasty team, but I still place him in the deep second tier, along with players like Robert Griffin III, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford, yet Foles is being drafted anywhere from one to three rounds ahead of those players – that alone is what earns the overvalued label for Foles.

Ray Rice, RB BAL
March ADP: 89

I mentioned the off-season troubles of Ravens running back Ray Rice and by now, everyone knows the domestic incident involving his former fiancé and brand new wife. We’re not here to judge what a player does off the field, but it can certainly have an impact on their dynasty value. Rice was already in the collective doghouse of dynasty owners after the worst season of his career. It’s hard to imagine Rice was a top ten player in dynasty formats just one year ago. His current draft spot as the RB27 is obviously evident of his struggles, but again, I look to some other players being drafted much later. For example, Darren McFadden could be had more than 30 picks later, while reliable veteran Frank Gore is coming off the board nearly 35 spots later than Rice. If I’m looking to acquire a veteran running back either in a startup draft or an existing league, I’d first look for one of these much cheaper options.

TY Hilton, WR IND
March ADP: 41

Is TY Hilton really considered the 23rd best wide receiver in dynasty leagues? That’s exactly where he was drafted in March dynasty mocks. Granted, I currently have Hilton ranked as the WR26, so at first glance it doesn’t seem like I should have much of a problem with his ADP rank, but once the rookies are included in the DLF rankings (coming soon, by the way!) Hilton is due to fall. There are at least five rookie wideouts I’d prefer over Hilton. With the return of Reggie Wayne and the arrival of free agent Hakeem Nicks, there’s little reason to expect Hilton to maintain his late-season pace of 2013. Again, Hilton is a solid player and he’s someone I’d like to have as the top wide receiver on my bench, but he’s not a player I want to start every week, let alone take in the middle of the fourth round of a startup draft.

Vernon Davis, TE SF
March ADP: 75

Early on in Vernon Davis’ career, it looked as if he’d been a wasted pick. He was fighting with his Head Coach and wasn’t producing on the field. That all changed quickly and Davis has consistently been a very good fantasy tight end, finishing as a TE1 four out of the past five seasons, including his bounce back year in 2013 when he picked up the slack for the injured Michael Crabtree. However, Davis just turned 30 years old though and considering the depth of young tight ends currently available (not to mention the strong rookie tight end class set to enter the league), I can’t justify Davis as a top 75 pick in a startup league. If you already own him, he’s not a player to rush out and dump for anything you can get. He’ll continue to produce for another couple of seasons, but he won’t be a player I’m targeting in new leagues, especially with the 49ers continuous flirtation with adding more pass-catchers.

Check out the March ADP and share your undervalued and overvalued players below.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.