Rookie Bust Mock Draft: Round Three
Most rookie mock drafts you see like to focus on the strengths of each prospect selected. This isn’t one of those drafts.
You’re probably used to hearing about how explosive and sure handed Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans are and how incredible Teddy Bridgewater’s arm is. For good reason, we like to focus on the positives in each prospect’s game and inform our readers why a specific player will propel your fantasy team to glory. In this mock however, we’ll try to throw up the red flag on some of the weaknesses that our favorite rookies possess and explain which ones have the most potential to “bust.”
There was only one rule for who was eligible for this three round, eight man mock draft. To make sure all players taken were relevant dynasty picks as any player selected had to have been taken in the first two rounds of any DLF rookie mock draft during this off-season. Players were taken based on the risk probability, meaning the riskiest players and most likely ones to bust went first.
Let’s finish up with round three.
3.01 – Lache Seastrunk, RB Baylor
Brian’s thoughts: Seastrunk is a runner with a lot of explosiveness and got by in college on pure speed and the ability to make defenders miss in the open field. This is the NFL, though. Seastrunk will have to get to the edge to in order to see the open field or have an offensive coordinator who can get to the ball to him in space. He will not win many battles between the tackles as he lacks the power and vision to create yards pushing the pile. Seastrunk also has issues in pass protection. He is often out muscled and will look to cut the blitzing defender rather than hold a block. Seastrunk was not part of the passing attack at Baylor recording only nine catches in 2012 and ZERO in 2013. This is a player who feasts on defenses in open space, but why wasn’t he used in the passing game?
My thoughts: Seastrunk isn’t an every down back. As Brian mentioned, he was rarely used in the passing game in college and doesn’t pass block well. More than that, he dances in the backfield and constantly looks to run outside before running lanes open up on the inside. It’s questionable if he’d succeed in a pro-style offense that doesn’t feature the wide receiver sweeps and misdirection that made Seastrunk so effective while in college.
3.02 – Jordan Matthews, WR Vanderbilt
Scott’s thoughts: I actually like Matthews, but this late in a bust draft, it’s about tough choices for some good talent. Matthews has solid size for an NFL receiver, makes plays after the catch and I thought he showed a proficiency for big plays using a diverse skill set. He has good character. He didn’t seem to play up to his 4.46 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and it makes me wonder how he will translate to the NFL game. He is being drafted in the top five in some rookie drafts and I wonder if his upside is that of a solid, but not spectacular player. He may end up being a low-ceiling, high-floor player for dynasty formats.
My thoughts: The biggest thing that jumped out to me while watching Matthews was his personality on the field, reminiscent of Terrell Owens. He looks to have a big mouth and likes to bark at defenders as well as teammates and referees. In order to get away with that on Sundays, he better have a big game to match it. With speed, strength and jumping abilities that aren’t better than above average to go along with his diva personality and his propensity to drop passes from time to time, there’s potential for Matthews to bust.
3.03 – Charles Sims, RB West Virginia
My thoughts: Sims displayed quickness and long speed after transferring to West Virginia from Houston last year, but never exhibited elite skills to prove he can be a full-time tailback at the next level. While he’s shifty and fast, he doesn’t possess much power and lacks the ability to break tackles, often losing his balance after first contact. He also has an upright running style that caused him to take big hits while in college which could make him susceptible to injuries in the NFL. With all that said, I like Sims to become a quality tailback at the next level, but he’ll most likely have to share the backfield with another runner and could limit his fantasy upside.
3.04 – Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville
Ghost’s thoughts: This pick was made right after Bridgewater had a widely reported poor showing at his pro day. There have been a lot of questions during the off season about Bridgewater and it seemed like a high risk/high reward pick to close out the draft for me.
My thoughts: Bridgewater has a very lean build. He’s slender and long, which makes me wonder if he can handle the constant banging NFL quarterbacks have to deal with. Many compare him to Robert Griffin III, but the comparisons end at their physical stature. Bridgewater isn’t close to the same athlete that RG3 is and an argument could be made that Griffin is more accurate and throws a better deep ball. Bridgewater also struggled when playing in bad weather while in college, which could become a problem if he’s drafted by a cold weather franchise.
3.05 – Jeremy Hill, RB LSU
Jacob’s thoughts: I honestly have no idea how he kept being passed over up until this point. Maybe the lines of communication were a little blurred, but if we are talking about players who I have concerns about falling flat on their face in the NFL, Hill is pretty far up my list. Not only are there character questions involving a fight outside of a bar and some sexual misconduct, but his combine was a pretty big disappointment. Maybe the combine performance was just a bad day, but if it was an accurate reflection of his physical abilities, I’m shocked. I expected him to grade out as being much faster, agile and explosive than he actually did. I need to go back and watch some more LSU games, but I’m definitely concerned about his prospects.
My thoughts: Hill is a thick, downhill runner who has a little quickness to his game. He looks way better on tape than he did at the combine, but a 4.66 second 40-yard dash as well as his other relatively average numbers didn’t go very far to proving he’s more than a rotational tailback. Although he has the size to be a quality short yardage runner, he doesn’t run behind his pads between the tackles and can’t move a pile. He also lacks a third gear to run away from defenders when he breaks out of the pile. Overall, he looks to me like the type of back who is much better on game day than in shorts running the 40.
3.06 – Davante Adams, WR Fresno State
Jeff M’s thoughts: Adams is one of my favorite players in the draft, but there are a handful of signs which point to potential bustville for the former Bulldog. A main sticking point for some is in differentiating what was most responsible for his output at Fresno State. It could simply be that Derek Carr and the offensive system carried Adams to his gaudy 233 receptions, 3,031 yards and 38 touchdowns over two seasons. It is also not out of line to suggest his slightly slow 40 time or lack of ideal physical strength could be an omen.
My thoughts: Adams is an incredibly raw talent at this point. He possesses some of the traits that make for a number one receiver, but has room to grow. While he has a knack for high pointing the ball and very good hands, many have pointed to his route running as a flaw in his game. He’s also been criticized for his inability to get off of jam coverage. Personally, I think both of those weaknesses can be improved on with good coaching and some time in the weight room, but they’re shortcomings nonetheless.
3.07 – Eric Ebron, TE UNC
Eric’s thoughts: Ebron is the best tight end in this class in my opinion. He’s fast, fluid and can catch anything. His comparison to Vernon Davis is spot on. Rookie tight ends rarely make huge fantasy impacts so, again, I worry about expectations and perceived performance. Everyone was expecting huge TE1 fantasy numbers from Tyler Eifert last season. He put up decent numbers, definitely not a bust, but people were disappointed. Patience is key with all rookies, but especially tight ends.
My thoughts: Almost all of the negatives associated with Ebron’s game have to do with his blocking, where he struggles from time to time. While many dynasty owners might say that doesn’t have anything to do with their fantasy team, I beg to differ. If he struggles in the run game, he’ll most likely find himself off the field far too oftern and he can’t help your fantasy team on the bench. NFL coaches like tight ends that can contribute to both the passing and running games and while it doesn’t mean everything, it’s worth paying attention to as dynasty owners.
3.08 – Donte Moncrief, WR Mississippi
Jeff B’s thoughts: On tape, Moncrief resembles former New York Giants wide receiver Amani Toomer to some degree. He’s a solid all-around player without any discernible skills that set him apart from the other receivers in this draft class. He kind of just does everything average to above average and while he may very well have a nice NFL career, he’s not the type of player whose ceiling includes multiple Pro Bowls and fantasy WR1 type of production. Moncrief is a good prospect, but not the type of player a dynasty owners should bother taking until a middle rounds in a rookie draft.
My thoughts: At 6’2, 220 pounds, most would expect Moncrief to be a physical receiver who doesn’t mind making catches in traffic or going up to make catches above his head. That’s not the case, however. His biggest weaknesses are that he doesn’t play as big as his size indicates and lacks the killer instinct to sky for jump balls. He also uses his body on far too many catches which could present a problem against better cover corners in the NFL and doesn’t break tackles very well for a receiver his size. Without improvement in these areas, dynasty owners will worry less about him busting tackles and more about him straight up busting.
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