Rookie Bust Mock Draft: Round Two
Most rookie mock drafts you see like to focus on the strengths of each prospect selected. This isn’t one of those drafts.
You’re probably used to hearing about how explosive and sure handed Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans are and how incredible Teddy Bridgewater’s arm is. For good reason, we like to focus on the positives in each prospect’s game and inform our readers why a specific player will propel your fantasy team to glory. In this mock however, we’ll try to throw up the red flag on some of the weaknesses that our favorite rookies possess and explain which ones have the most potential to “bust.”
There was only one rule for who was eligible for this three round, eight man mock draft. To make sure all players taken were relevant dynasty picks as any player selected had to have been taken in the first two rounds of any DLF rookie mock draft during this off-season. Players were taken based on the risk probability, meaning the riskiest players and most likely ones to bust went first.
Let’s continue with round two.
2.01 – Ka’Deem Carey, RB Arizona
Brian’s thoughts: Film alone will confirm Carey is one of the top running backs in the class. What is Carey missing? Carey lacks foot speed, burst and long range speed. He has the vision to run between the tackles, but will have issues getting to the edge and exploding up field for big gains. Carey has average size for a back who does not have explosive speed. At 5’10” and 207 pounds, Carey doesn’t have the body type to be a “grinder” in the NFL, either. He does have some great film, but his attributes may not convert well to the speed of the NFL. Lastly, Carey has had some minor run-ins with the law including disorderly conduct and assault charges against his ex-girlfriend. These character issues may cause some teams to shy away from Carey.
My thoughts: There are two things that concern me most about Carey. First, Arizona’s spread offense often lead to advantageous running lanes. He often faced seven (and sometimes six) man fronts while in Tucson, something that won’t happen on Sundays. More than anything else, he has an upright running style that is sure to leave him vulnerable to vicious hits in the NFL and could cause durability issues. Couple that with the 820 touches he’s tallied over the last three seasons and there’s potential for danger.
2.02 – Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State
Scott’s thoughts: I like Cooks’ speed and he is truly explosive. However, his size is a limiting factor. I didn’t see much separation on deep routes, but again he has that big-time speed. I think he is more system dependent and would look great with the Eagles. He ran a lot of short passing plays in the flat. I’m not sure he will be anything more than a gadget player. Maybe a poor-man’s Percy Harvin, but he might have trouble with NFL-caliber defenders. Too much risk for me to pick him in the top-10 of rookie drafts.
My thoughts: Everybody likes to talk about Cooks’ abilities with his feet, but the limitations he has with his hands is the first thing that comes to mind for me. At the combine, he bobbled multiple passes which made me go back and watch some more film on him. He did the same thing there. While he doesn’t drop a lot of passes, he has a tendency to double-catch balls which will be a problem at the next level. When you consider his deficiencies getting off the line in press coverage as well as his size, Scott may be right by saying he shouldn’t be taken too high in rookie drafts.
2.03 – Tre Mason, RB Auburn
My thoughts: Don’t get me wrong, I like Mason. I just think he could disappoint whoever drafts him. While he runs hard most of the time and has a unique ability to have his biggest games on the biggest stages (which could translate well to playing on Sundays), he plays down to his competition from time to time and doesn’t always look interested in running between the tackles when there isn’t a gaping hole. Instead, he’d side step in the backfield, sometimes taking a loss rather than getting up field to make positive yardage. Again, I like Mason. I just think there is too much risk in drafting him too high.
2.04 – Bishop Sankey, RB Washington
Ghost’s thoughts: By the end of the first round you’ve got to start making tough decisions. There is a lot to like in Sankey, but running backs who come into the draft highly rated do have a high failure rate. Sankey isn’t a really good pass protector, so this may allow others to surpass him and take starting snaps.
My thoughts: While our second Husky to make this list has many positive qualities including his vision and running instinct,s he also has flaws, most noticeably his inability to break tackles. Far too often, Sankey was taken down on arm tackles or lost his balance after minimal contact. He also been criticized over the last two seasons for his struggles against quality competition. All-in-all, like many runners, where he ends up will be critical to Sankey’s success. If he ends up in a zone-blocking offense, he’ll likely be fine. If not, he could struggle.
2.05 – Devonte Freeman, RB Florida State
Jacob’s thoughts: Unlike Crowell, my concerns for Freeman have nothing to do with off the field issues and everything to do with on the field ones. Every time I watch Freeman I come away thinking the same thing. It is basically an “Eh, that was okay” kind of feeling. I don’t really see anything that stands out one way or the other. There aren’t any glaring holes in his game he can fix to become a better player and nothing really stands out for good qualities. He is what he is and that’s about it. I think he’s a special teamer and depth player in the NFL and that’s all. I think anyone expecting him to be a fantasy asset will be disappointed.
My thoughts: The thing that sticks out to me about Freeman is his lack of explosiveness. At the combine, he proved those fears to be true by running a 4.58 second 40-yard dash and posting average numbers in the vertical, three-cone drill and broad jump. He’s never shown exceptional athleticism or any special qualities and could prove to be overhyped because of the talent around him in college.
2.06 – Jarvis Landry, WR LSU
Jeff M’s thoughts: In contrast to my first round pick, Marqise Lee, Landry is a year younger and showed great college red zone production (both of these measurements show a strong correlation to small wide receiver success in the NFL). The problems began at the combine where Landry had perhaps the most disappointing showing at his position. He ran a dreadful 4.77 40-yard dash, posted the worst broad jump and second slowest vertical. Add to that an injury during his second 40 attempt where some are questioning the legitimacy and you have perhaps the fastest dropping stock of any wide receiver in the process.
My thoughts: Added to Jeff’s comments about Landry’s lack of size and disappointing speed, I have concerns about his lack of experience (he only started 12 games in his career) and inability to get separation from defenders while in college. His lack of quickness compiled with his route running that appears to be average at best will cause problems at the next level. Along with his inability to hit the homerun due to his long speed restrictions, we have the makings of a “bust” for whatever NFL team (or dynasty owner) that takes him.
2.07 – Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson
Eric’s thoughts: With great expectations come greater risk. Watkins has so much pressure on him from the fantasy community already that anything less than an AJ Green type of season is going to be considered a disappointment. I love Watkins and I think he’s going to be a great NFL and fantasy wide receiver. I also loved Tavon Austin and he can be had for pennies on the dollar compared to last year’s price after what is being considered a terrible rookie campaign. His hype is nothing compared to Watkins’. I am in no way saying I believe Watkins is going to bust, but I think expectations for him are astronomical already.
My thoughts: I bet when Eric began preparing for his rookie drafts earlier in the offseason he never thought he’d have a chance to snatch up Watkins with the 15th overall pick. Even more so, I bet he didn’t think he’d have a problem defending it. I too think Watkins will be an excellent pro, but as Eric stated, he has a lot to prove and the quicker he does it the better off for his fantasy value. I recently heard someone compare him to Marvin Harrison. Yeah, expectations are high. And with great expectations comes great responsibility.
2.08 – Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M
Jeff B’s thoughts: Evans’ massive 6’5″, 225 pound frame allowed him to abuse the much smaller cornerbacks he faced in college. However, his biggest asset (his size) has held him back from learning a lot of the very important nuances which are the calling card for an NFL wide receivers to have long, productive careers. Evans certainly isn’t a bad player by any means, but his lack of development in things like precise route running jumps out immediately on film. Most of Evans’ big plays in college came as a result of Johnny Manziel‘s ability to elongate the play. He won’t have that luxury in the NFL, unfortunately, and will eventually be forced to learn the techniques which he was never before required to.
My thoughts: Even in a rookie bust mock draft, Evans goes directly behind Watkins. He’s got to be asking himself what it takes to go ahead of him. In all seriousness, Evans depended solely on physical gifts while in college. As Jeff pointed out, he’s not a strong route runner which forced him to out muscle or out jump defenders for the ball. While that didn’t help improve other parts of his game, he did develop good ball skills and jumping ability that will help him at the next level. Like Watkins, Evans will likely become a very good pro, but might take some time to realize his potential.
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