Polarizing Percy

James Simpson

harvin

I love (or maybe hate) players who divide opinion. Percy Harvin is one of those players. He currently sits at WR16 in the DLF receiver rankings, but is the only player with two votes in the top ten as well as two votes below 25. In addition, among top 20 players, only Keenan Allen and Larry Fitzgerald have a bigger difference between their highest rank and their lowest. The writers here at DLF just can’t seem to agree on what his value is. As he is someone who creates such debate, let’s take a look at what the different factors are affecting his dynasty value.

The Physical

When I asked Ken Kelly if I could write about Harvin, he gave me the green light and said “I think he’s kind of a forgotten player right now, but he’s so good when he’s healthy.”

“When he’s healthy.”

Any examination of Percy Harvin’s fantasy value must include the most obvious qualm with his first five years in football – the injuries. NFL players can have all the talent in the world, but if they can’t stay on the field and produce, they don’t help their real teams and certainly don’t help us as fantasy footballers in dynasty leagues. If we continuously fall in love with the ‘talent’ without considering the production, we head down a risky and potentially catastrophic road. Furthermore, even when a player does produce when they are on the field, can they continue to do it over time? We are looking for players who can help us over a number of years and Harvin hasn’t been able to do that so far.

As we all know, he has been on the injury report a lot since he entered the league, but early on in his career, those problems didn’t keep him off the field. While he missed numerous practices in his first three years with migraines, he only missed three games in that period. The ankle injury that forced him onto injured reserve in 2012 (a grade three sprain) can cause instability and future problems, but there was certainly no indication of that as he made his brief return to the field in 2013. DLF’s very own “Dynasty Doctor,”’ Scott Peak also explained Harvin’s most recent long-term hip injury prior to the surgery, saying it should not affect his long term value and pointed to Brandon Marshall as another receiver who had the surgery and continues to play at a high level.

An injury-riddled past does not necessarily equal more injuries in the future, especially when most of the time he has missed is because of two major injuries. While he has suffered more than most, every player is susceptible to getting hurt because of the nature of the game. I am expecting and planning for him to come back healthy, and if I approach an owner who is skeptical of that being the case, I will happily take him off their hands.

The Production

Here are Harvin’s ranks among wide receivers for his first five years:

Year

Points

Rank

2009

128.5

25

2010

133.8

20

2011

178.9

7

2012

101.3

43

2013

1.7

While the yearly numbers are not overly impressive, we must look further at what he has produced in his time when healthy. For example, it is important to note how well he was playing in 2012 before the ankle injury. Through the first eight games of 2012:

Rsh

Yd

Y/R

TD

Tar

Rec

Yd

Y/R

TD

FPT

18

72

4.0

1

79

60

667

11.1

3

97.9

Continuing at that pace for the second half of the season, he would have finished with 195.8 points (WR6 level). He was also on pace for 120 receptions, which would have been second only to Calvin Johnson.

Where is he being drafted? Below is this year’s ADP data:

Month

ADP

January

WR21

February

WR13

March

WR17

Despite only finishing higher than the twentieth ranked receiver once in five years, he is being drafted as a high WR2. While every year we look for players with the potential to breakout, it is important they actually bring production to our teams and not just hype. Can I rely on him to live up to these expectations? If I am buying him at WR2 value, I expect for WR2 production or better. Did his stock rise too much after his contributions to the Super Bowl victory? We must compare him to some of the players around him with similar values to see if this ADP is justified.

The Points of Comparison

To gain more of an idea into his production, I took a look at his weekly ranks among receivers in the weeks he played. He has played 55 games out of a possible 80 and been a WR1 12 times and a WR2 16 times. These numbers don’t mean anything without context, so I looked at the two players above him in the DLF rankings (Cordarrelle Patterson and Pierre Garcon) and the two players below him (Larry Fitzgerald and Jordy Nelson) to see how he measured up.

Notes:

  • I only used data since Harvin was drafted in 2009
  • The ‘%’ column refers to the percentage of the possible games they could have played in the last five years (80 was the maximum for everyone expect Patterson)

Player

Games

%

WR1

WR1%

WR2

WR2%

Total

Total %

Patterson

16

100

2

12.50

3

18.75

5

31.25

Garcon

70

87.5

17

24.29

7

10.00

24

34.29

Harvin

55

68.75

12

21.82

16

29.10

28

50.91

Fitzgerald

80

100

21

26.25

20

25.00

41

51.25

Nelson

73

91.25

15

20.55

11

15.07

26

35.62

  • Harvin shows up strong in all of the categories (except games played)
  • As well as his strong start to 2012, his second half of 2011 was perhaps more impressive, as he spent six of the eight weeks as a WR1
  • It is no surprise that Patterson only has five weeks in the top 24, but remarkable they all came in the second half of the season
  • The data indicates that Garcon is a “boom-or-bust receiver.” Amazingly, he has only had one week as a WR2 since 2009, but 16 weeks as a WR1
  • Garcon’s 2011 season is a perfect example of why it is important to look at weekly numbers and not just a total season score. He ranked as the WR22 that year, but scored 78.1 of his 133.5 points (58.50%) for the year in just three games and didn’t finish in the top 24 for any other week that year
  • Fitzgerald has been consistently excellent, and continued that in 2013 by placing in the top 24 in nine weeks of the season
  • 23 of Nelson’s top-24 weeks have come in the last three seasons after quiet rookie and sophomore years

The Player

While the injuries are a concern, the production we want is there when Harvin is on the field. What about the way he plays the game? He does not fit the mold of a typical number one receiver, whereas most of the players at the top of the rankings do. At 5-11, 184 he is not a tall, rangy player who will win contested catches and dominate physically. He has only had nine 100 yard receiving games in the NFL, which is minimal compared to guys like Josh Gordon and Calvin Johnson, who both had seven in 2013 alone.

He is unconventional, but there are other aspects to Harvin’s game that are unique. He will line up in the backfield, the slot or as an outside receiver and will run the ball on sweeps and receive it on screen passes – both of which were evident in the Super Bowl. With 107 rushing attempts in his career, he is far ahead of most other receivers and the extra yards gained are crucial for his fantasy value.

Sammy Watkins is (quite rightly) being talked about as someone who can make the jump into the top tier of receivers and while I believe that Watkins is a more polished receiver than Harvin, he was often used in a similar way at Clemson – get him the ball and let him go to work. The explosiveness of these players is undeniable, so their teams will get the ball in their hands however possible. A great illustration of Harvin’s ability to “do it all” came on one drive against Indianapolis in 2012. He returned a kick for 50 yards, ran the ball for 20, caught a slant for eight yards then followed it up by catching a screen for 11. Harvin may not be traditional, but he will be involved. I believe he has the ability and now the situation to break into the top tier of receivers in fantasy football.

The Promise

At the start of next season, Percy Harvin will be just 26 years old. He had only ten touches in 2013, but they were good ones as he totalled 245 yards. By the time he is on the field for the start of the season, he will have spent the most part of two years away from the intense wear and tear of the NFL. After time with Christian Ponder and a declining Donovan McNabb, he is now paired with Russell Wilson – a smart and accurate quarterback who will be able to put the ball in his hands in the best position to make plays. It is no coincidence the Seahawks scored their second-most points all year in the Super Bowl with Harvin’s contribution. While I expect him to help Seattle not just on offense (he has had a return touchdown in every year of his NFL career), I expect 2014 to be a great fantasy football year for him and I want to be a part of it.

Are you holding, buying or selling Harvin?

Talk football with James on Twitter @EaglesMusings

james simpson