Start-Up Draft Mini Guide

Jeff Miller

bryantSometime back in January, DLF’s man behind the curtain Eric Dickens asked me if I’d be interested in joining the team. Excited for a new challenge, I immediately jumped at the chance. Then reality set in: I didn’t exactly have much experience with the whole dynasty thing. This revelation threw me into a tailspin of prayer to the fantasy gods. I begged of them the granting of dynasty knowledge and wisdom. After many hours, perhaps days, the prayer and sacrifices (I offered gummy bears and a signed Onterrio Smith photo) were finally answered with the gift of a spot in a startup dynasty draft. It wasn’t exactly the total understanding of all things fake football I had hoped for, but I had no time to waste, so the preparation began.

One of the major hurdles I encountered in my quest was the lack of information designed for dynasty newbies. I am not talking about a pure Fantasy 101, but rather a primer for experienced redraft leaguers on how to handle their first startup draft. It is with this in mind that I began to document the process I was going through. The notes I took and conversations I had with various DLF luminaries manifested itself into what you see here: Your very own mini-guide to not completely blowing a startup.

Please note that while this advice is largely universal regardless of format, the league in question is a 10-team PPR where we start two quarterbacks, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end, two flex and a team defense. All that said, because it is the most common format used by our readership, the ADP data quoted below is for one-quarterback leagues

The Pre-draft Process

My first move was to fire up DLF’s ADP data. While every draft is different, ADP is a good starting point when determining a strategy for building a roster. Using the information, I mocked out several different scenarios in an attempt to identify the best path for my draft. Through this, one specific point kept showing itself: The fifth through ninth rounds is where you are likely to find the best talent to value ratio. For the rest of this exercise, we will call these key rounds “the value zone.”

The first four rounds of the draft are utterly dominated by young’uns. According to our January ADP data, which I chose over February because it excludes rookies, there were only five non-quarterbacks aged 28 or older being drafted in the top 48. The next 48 (rounds five to eight in a 12 team league) host twice as many players in that age bracket – this is significant because older players are often very underrated in startup drafts. Players who may produce like a third round pick the next two or three years end up slipping into the sixth or seventh. Hence, the value zone.

As all of this information began to make itself evident, I decided the balanced approach with a win-now slant was the best way to extract the most value from the draft. When we get as far as taking a look at how it all came down, you will see those who went super young or decided to load up on early round picks ended up regretting their decisions.

Now that we have a plan, the next step is to make maneuvers geared towards maximizing its effectiveness. The obvious path was to move back in the early rounds and accumulate up picks in the value zone. My draft was littered with folks looking to jump up, especially once things got under way. But before we get to the trades made during the draft itself, let’s look at the three deals I made beforehand.

Deal 1

Give: 1.05, 6.06, rookie 3.06

Get: 1.10, 3.09, rookie 1.08

I went off plan a bit in the first deal by moving out of the value zone and into the third round, but I was getting so much in return that it seemed like a no-brainer. The additional rookie first rounder also set up a future trade, which I will discuss later.

Deal 2

Give: 2.06, 4.06, 10.06, rookie 3.06

Get: 2.05, 6.05, 8.05, 2015 rookie first

Deal 3

Give: 3.05, 11.05

Get: 4.07, 7.01

These two deals netted me three extra picks in the sixth through eighth rounds. I also accumulated another rookie first, bringing my two year total to four. Overall, I didn’t drop back much, but the chips I picked up in return were significant.

All three of these trades are great evidence of how expensive it is to move up. When you consider the relative risk of doing so (the more you spend, the higher the risk of ruin if the player doesn’t pan out), it makes less and less sense to me. Let’s look at an example of this by swapping in players at the ADP of the picks in the third deal from above:

Give: Michael Floyd, Greg Olsen

Get: Larry Fitzgerald, Nick Foles

It is fairly close, but at the end of the day I definitely prefer my side. And if it isn’t completely evident by now, my inclination in most leagues is to build a deep team sprinkled with elite players and upside, but not dominated by it.

The Draft

The draft itself played out in a fairly unexpected way. With it being a two-quarterback setup, signal callers were an incredibly hot commodity the first two rounds as 10 of them flew off the board in the first 18 selections. Luckily, I had stockpiled picks in the value zone, so I was able to jump up in the second round to grab a quarterback without adversely affecting my overall mission.

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The first thing you may notice is that my name doesn’t make an appearance. That’s because I made a trade that moved me out of the first round entirely. With Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Jamaal Charles, and Demaryius Thomas all in the same tier of my rankings, it was an easy decision to drop back from 1.10 to 2.03.

The Deal

Give: 1.10, 3.09

Get: 2.03, 3.02

chart2

I was very happy to get Charles at 2.03. Not only was it tremendous value, but it also perfectly illustrates the potential benefits of trading back. Had I stayed at my original pick of 1.05, I would have been deciding between Charles and a wide receiver anyway. Grabbing additional picks and upgrading others while still getting “my guy” was a huge victory.

With my second pick of the round, I determined I needed to grab Russell Wilson. I had him in a tier with Stafford, just below the big three at the position and clearly ahead of Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. My pick was set at 2.05, but I didn’t want to wait and risk losing him, so I swapped with Joker’s Wild. All it cost me was a drop from 3.02 to 3.03. This is a pretty common move I pulled off a second time later on. Give it a go in your draft if you find yourself in a similar spot.

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In the third round I intended to take the best player available, but when I saw how far running backs were plummeting, I held off on the likes of Doug Martin and Giovani Bernard to grab my first wide receiver in Keenan Allen. Because every draft is different, you may not experience the same slide, but when they happen, you have to be prepared to adjust accordingly.

Taking Jay Cutler in the fourth round may seem crazy to those of you who are unfamiliar with two quarterback leagues. Looking at the excellent two-QB data our very own Ryan McDowell compiled, it shows the 12th quarterback off the board has an average ADP of 34.5. That is right in line with where I took my 11th rated signal caller in Smokin’ Jay.

Remember when I said the guys who moved up likely ended up regretting it? Well, the team who spent the most effort to stock up on early round picks was Explosive Athletic High Ceiling Upside. They ended up with four selections in the first two rounds, one in the fourth, and no others until the tenth. This was basically the exact opposite of the strategy I advocate. Here’s a look at his team, showing why I prefer my method:

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Explosive is loaded at the top end, but is going to have a very difficult time filling out his lineup adequately without doing some big-time wheeling and dealing. The fact he owns but a single pick in the rookie draft isn’t going to help matters.

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Rounds five and six offered some nice value; Victor Cruz was the 19th receiver off the board and Shane Vereen the 16th running back. Cruz was a particularly nice get as he fell behind a number of players I have him rated above. As happy as I was with both these picks, they were merely an appetizer for the main event of the value zone. In rounds seven through nine, I snagged four very good starting caliber players who all have the upside to trump previous production and Christine Michael, a player some think is the next big thing at running back.

All the trading back ended up netting me 11 selections in the first nine rounds and two additional rookie first rounders. I did sacrifice my 10th and 12th round picks as well as two rookie thirds, but that was a minor price to pay in order to load up on very good players in the middle of the draft (and still give me an opportunity to stay young with the rookie firsts).

If you’d like to check out the entirety of the draft, my roster, and the moves I’ve made since we finished up, please click here.

Post-Daft

Now that the draft is over we can breathe a sigh of relief and take a break, right? Wrong! When it comes to finishing off your roster, there is no time like the present. With tons of depth to deal from, the first thing I did post-draft was set out on a quest to acquire a bit of top-end talent. A couple days later I was the proud owner of Demaryius Thomas and Le’Veon Bell.

Give: Torrey Smith, Shane Vereen, 1.06, 2.06

Get: Demaryius Thomas, Le’Veon Bell, 2.10.

One of the main differences between redraft and dynasty leagues is the sheer volume of trades made. There is a constant battle to improve rosters, and if you don’t participate, you may be left behind. Cast a wide net with trade talks, never get too attached to anybody on your roster, and always keep in mind that personal rankings in dynasty leagues vary far wider than in redraft. This advice is pretty elementary and applies to all league types, but with a redraft, being lazy in trade talks has the potential to only cost you for one season. In dynasty, it could haunt you for years.

A tricky aspect for those who are new to the format is valuing rookie draft picks for trade purposes. We all know that ADP can be a useful tool to help value players, so why not use here as well? Going back to the wealth of information provided by Mr. McDowell, I threw together this handy chart. It shows the ADP of the various rookie picks in the February mock drafts (we included rookies this time around) as well as examples of veteran players who go around that ADP in drafts.

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This is a very fluid chart meant only as a very basic guide to help you get a general idea of a rookie pick’s value. I will release an updated version when our March ADP data hits. We also had another version in our free content recently. Follow me on Twitter @FFJeffM to get a hold of my updated one later.

Hopefully my shared experience helps a few fellow dynasty newbs to get a bit more of a head start than I had. If you do find yourself wanting for more, the two best resources out there are our forums and Twitter. Not sure who to follow? Check out the About Us page for a full listing of the Twitter handles for every DLF scribe. We have a wealth of experience, a sunny disposition, and are always more than happy to help.

jeff miller