Free Agency Frenzy: Day One Winners and Losers

It was a relatively quiet day for fantasy developments as most of the free agent action involved lineman and defensive backs. That said, there’s still a lot to digest after just one day of free agency, so let’s jump into it.

I’m not one to bury the lead, so let’s start off with the fantasy position with the most action on Tuesday.

Running Back Winners

Toby Gerhart, RB JAX

To me, Gerhart is one of the few big winners at the running back position coming out of the first day of free agency. After spending four years hidden in the shadow of Adrian Peterson, Gerhart now seems set up to be the primary ball carrier for the Jacksonville Jaguars. While it is true this is not a great situation for fantasy production, the fact Gerhart will likely be stepping into a starting role gives him a significant bump in value.

Gerhart represents an intriguing opportunity. His lack of production so far in his career can easily be explained by him being behind a once-a-generation talent. He came into the league as a second round pick and a lot of pedigree from college. His most active stretch in the NFL came in 2011 when he had 85 carries for 413 yards (4.8 YPC) over the final six weeks of the season. He also had 18 receptions during that time.

Action Item – Hold

I own Gerhart in a couple of leagues and personally, I’m not going to actively try to sell him. If someone wants to buy him at solid RB2 prices, I’d consider it, but I expect that it’s more likely that his price will be suppressed due to notions about the Jacksonville offense. With the end of the Blaine Gabbert experiment, I think Gerhart could produce in a Chad Henne-led offense, particularly if/when Justin Blackmon returns to the field. At the same time, I don’t think it’s a good time to go out and buy Gerhart as his owner is going to ask for starting running back prices.

For another well thought out opinion on Gerhart, check out Ken Kelly’s piece on him here.

Latavius Murray, RB OAK

It says a lot that the second “winner” on this list is a backup, but unfortunately that’s just the kind of day it was for the running backs. Darren McFadden staying in Oakland was one of the early surprises of free agency. With the departure of Rashad Jennings, Murray is currently one inevitable McFadden ankle sprain from getting the nod at running back for the Raiders. McFadden is on a one year “prove it” deal with very little guaranteed money and there’s every chance he fails to prove anything other than he can’t be a team’s starting running back for a full season. If the Raiders don’t allocate any other serious resources, be it free agency dollars or early draft picks to this position, it’s a very good sign they think Murray can be the guy.

Karl Safchick wrote an excellent piece looking at all of the Raider running backs after the free agency developments, which you can find here.

Action Item – Hold/Buy 

Obviously if you own Murray, I would recommend you continue doing so and wait. If not, it’s always possible the Murray owner in your league has an inflated, outdated opinion of Darren McFadden and thinks his staying in Oakland is bad news for Murray. Go find out.

Joique Bell, RB DET

I think Bell is a great fit in Detroit and the Lions are a great fit for him. Sure, it would have been nice if he’d found his way to a situation where he was more likely to start, but I’m not sure anyone thought that was a very realistic possibility. He remains a decent flex play at times and one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.

Action Item: Hold

Since there’s no reason for Bell’s value to have experienced a significant change in your league, I don’t recommend buying or selling him at this time as a result of his re-signing.

Rashad Jennings, RB NYG

I initially had Jennings with the losers, but as I wrote about David Wilson and all the issues around him, I started to realize I actually think Jennings is a winner. Yes, he could have ended up in a better spot with a clearer path to production, but as of right now, I feel he is the Giant running back to own. He’s clearly better than Peyton Hillis and he has far fewer question marks than Wilson.

Certainly Jennings’ ceiling may be limited by the puzzling signing of Hillis and his long-term value could be derailed if we see a Wilson resurrection, but as things stand right now, Jennings is the safest bet on the roster.

Action Item: Hold*

The asterisk is because I’m assuming the general reaction to the whole Giants backfield “mess” will make Jennings a tough guy to sell. That said, if you’re in a league with someone who thinks like me, or maybe even actually is me (I’m in way too many leagues), it may be worth tossing him out there. You could also pitch him to the Wilson owner as a way for him to guarantee getting a big piece of the New York running game. So, this one depends on what the market is like in your league. I wouldn’t be looking to get rid of Jennings at any price, but if you find an optimistic trade partner, have at it.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB IND

Again, “winner” is all relative. If you’re a Bradshaw owner in a deep league, it’s hard to imagine you had high hopes about Bradshaw’s free agency prospects considering his injury history. The fact Bradshaw has been brought back by a team that knows him and where he’s been productive before is a positive development. Also, with the departure of Donald Brown, Bradshaw’s only competition right now is an underwhelming Trent Richardson and a recovering Vick Ballard.

Action Item: Sell

If I owned Bradshaw in a dynasty league, I would be trying to sell him immediately. The Colts could very well add some more bodies to this position and even if he does stay healthy, Bradshaw’s ceiling is probably a 1B platoon type role, primarily on passing downs. My main target would be the unlucky soul who owns Richardson in your league. With Brown leaving town, there’s a moment right now where you could sell Bradshaw as a Richardson insurance policy. Go out, start knocking on doors and take just about anything you can get for Bradshaw.

Saints Running Backs

Although Darren Sproles remains on the Saints’ roster at this moment, it now appears very likely he will be traded. The fact there is enough demand out there that Sproles might fetch something in a trade is a good sign for him, but we’ll get into him specifically once something actually happens. It’s more a positive sign for the running backs that will remain in New Orleans since there’s one less mouth to feed. Khiry Robinson, Mark Ingram, and Pierre Thomas will all have a little more time to share. In dynasty leagues, Robinson and Ingram are the much more desirable targets, but Pierre Thomas could retain some bye week flex value in the short-term as well.

Action Item: Buy (Robinson/Ingram)

In my leagues, the cat is out of the bag on Robinson, but Ingram shold not be overlooked either. If the hype train is getting carried away with Robinson, consider making an offer for Ingram. Even if things don’t come together for him in New Orleans, he won’t be there forever. He’ll enter the fourth year of his contract in 2014, with just a fifth year option left on his rookie deal.

The Rest

Andre Ellington, Lamar Miller and Steven Jackson all saw their offensive lines improve at least somewhat on the first day of free agency.

Peyton Hillis should be mentioned as a winner here just because he’s going to continue to have a job, but he’s not on the fantasy radar in any positive way.

Running Back Losers

Ryan Mathews, RB SD

I don’t want to go overboard here and make Donald Brown out to be something more than he is (which is an adequate, effective player), but this one hurts Ryan Mathews. After he finally finishes a full season and flashes the ability that made him a first round pick, the Chargers go out and sign a solid player to take a piece of the running back pie. Mathews is particularly sensitive to this kind of move because his playing time is already reduced due to the presence of Danny Woodhead. Mathews had a career season in 2013, but he still only finished as the PPR RB24 on a points per game basis.

Brown is coming off a career year and got almost the exact same contract Toby Gerhart received from the Jaguars. It’s safe to say that he’s going to have a significant role.

Action Item: Hold (Mathews), Sell (Brown)

I will never recommended selling low on a player like Mathews, especially right after a negative development. Your best bet is to hold on to him and just hope that he manages to keep Brown marginalized.

Brown, on the other hand, is someone I would look to sell. Sure, you could sit around and wait for an injury to Mathews, but I wouldn’t bother with the headache. Hit the pavement and start dangling him out there was a solid handcuff for Mathews to see if you can get a third round pick or something similar.

I wouldn’t do anything differently with Woodhead, he’s probably going to be what he was before – a spot-starter in PPR leagues, quasi-unrosterable in non-PPR leagues.

Darren McFadden, RB OAK

I already touched upon McFadden in the Murray section, but it should be mentioned McFadden staying in Oakland was a pretty disappointing outcome for his owners. With McFadden being constantly hampered by injury, ineffectiveness and just generally held back by the Oakland offense, a “change of scenery” story line would’ve been the best way for McFadden to get a bump in value. Instead, he signs a one year deal with his current team, with only $100,000 guaranteed.

To make things worse, the Raiders, flush with cap space, let offensive tackle Jared Veldheer (their best player) walk away. They then replace him with the less talented, more expensive Rodger Saffold.

Action: Sell

This development isn’t great for his value, but I would’ve told you to try and sell McFadden before free agency. Since nothing has really changed, I don’t see a reason to change that approach either. Don’t get rid of McFadden for just anything.

David Wilson, RB NYG

The Giants have built a less talented, more injury-prone version of the Chargers’ backfield. On the plus side, Wilson’s stock wasn’t as high as Mathews’ was, so he didn’t have nearly as far to fall.

Wilson is a borderline “loser.” The main issues that are dragging his value down are the same – his health, his fumbling and his blocking. If those things can get straightened out (a rather sizable “if”), Rashad Jennings and Peyton Hillis are not going to keep him down. But, the fact is, the Giants went out and signed two running backs and acted with purpose. It has to be considered a negative for Wilson’s prospects, even if it could’ve been a bigger negative with a pair of better players.

Action: Hold

There’s little choice but to hold Wilson right now, which was the case before free agency began as well.

The Rest

It may not be a huge development, but it should at least be mentioned that Jamaal Charles will be paying behind an offensive line that lost three players in the first day of free agency. Left tackle Branden Albert went to the Dolphins, and Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz (two players who started a total of 16 games at guard in 2013) signed with Atlanta and New York, respectively.

It’s possible Dexter McCluster being signed by the Titans classifies him as a “winner,” but frankly I don’t know if the change in his stock will put him on the fantasy radar. I do think it means that the inevitable parting ways with Chris Johnson becomes a little more inevitable.

Wide Receiver Winners

Terrance Williams, WR DAL

It may have been just a formality, but to me, Williams receives the biggest value bump in day one with the official release of Miles Austin. He has the inside track as the WR2 receiver job in Dallas opposite Dez Bryant and I think he’s going to take a big step forward from his rookie season.

Action Item: Buy

Williams is one of the rare players I’d recommending “buying high” on. That expression, of course, is a relative term. His value will be “higher” now compared to where it was yesterday, but not as high as I expect it to go as we head into the 2014 season. I recently traded the #14 overall rookie pick for him in one league I’m in.

Andre Roberts, WR WAS

Roberts is an underrated player and I expect him to start for the Redskins opposite Pierre Garcon. He is just 26 years old and put up an impressive season in 2012 with the Cardinals, posting 64 receptions for 759 yards and five touchdowns. Last year he played squarely behind Michael Floyd, but if he does indeed end up starting in Washington (likely) I expect WR3 numbers at the very least.

Action Item: Buy

Roberts may even be on the waiver wire in shallow leagues. If so, he is a must add. In deeper leagues, he may be a little more expensive now as his owners will feel his signing in Washington is a positive development, but I’d still expect him to be very accessible. Go find out.

Wide Receiver Losers

Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin

This happened before the opening of free agency, but given the dearth of wide receiver related news, I thought I’d include it here. Each of these players re-signing in Philadelphia is not bad news, but I feel both of them signing detracts from each other. All else being equal, I would say I expect Maclin to outproduce Cooper, but I hesitate because of the relatively ambitious contract that the Eagles gave to Cooper – this suggests they really like his fit in their offense and that he may be there for a few years. Maclin, on the other hand, took a “prove it” deal, and his situation is a little more up in the air.

Action Item: Hold (Cooper), Buy (Maclin) 

With Maclin in town, this isn’t a good time to try and sell Cooper. I do like Maclin as a longer-term buy though. If his owner is disheartened by the “crowded” receiver situation in Philadelphia, see if you can get Maclin at WR3 prices. I think he’s a better player than Cooper, and with a successful season, could be a hot commodity on the free agent market next season.

The Rest

There wasn’t a lot of action at the wide receiver position and the bigger names players remain unsigned. As with the running backs, you could give a slight bump to the passing games, and thus the wide receivers of the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Falcons due to their offensive line moves.

It’s also worth mentioning Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon, if he can find his way back into the league, will benefit from not having to play with Blaine Gabbert anymore, as a Henne-led offense will be more fantasy friendly. Whether or not the Jaguars bring in a rookie quarterback remains to be seen, but it’s difficult to imagine them finding someone worse than Gabbert.

Other than that, we’re mostly waiting for more wide receiver news.

Tight End 

Just a couple of quick items at this position:

For the moment, Ryan Griffin is your starting tight end for the Houston Texans. With the release of Owen Daniels and with Garret Graham being a free agent, Griffin is the last man standing.  Ryan McDowell wrote an excellent piece on this very topic, which you can check out here.

Brandon Myers was picked up by the Buccaneers, which muddies the picture there with Tim Wright having a pretty productive rookie season. Myers may not be on many fantasy radars, but anyone in a deep, TE-premium league will want to take notice.

Quarterback Winners

The Good People of Jacksonville

There were no developments at this position on Tuesday, other than the baffling Blaine Gabbert trade. Whatever the motivation for the 49ers, the end of the Gabbert era is a welcome development by just about anyone with any rooting interest in the Jaguars both in the real world, or in our fantasy one.