Dynasty Capsule: Miami Dolphins
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill
Following an up and down rookie season, the former Texas A&M wide receiver made great strides in 2013. Tannehill’s completion percentage rose from 58.3% to 60.4% while he attempted 20% more passes, throwing for over 600 more yards (3,294 to 3,913) and doubling his passing touchdowns from 12 to 24. Allowed to air the ball out more in his second NFL season, he increased his yards passing per game from 216 to 245 and also had ten passing plays of 40 yards or more compared with only three in 2012. Tannehill has also started all 32 of the Dolphins’ games since he was drafted.
Amongst the franchise-wide changes to team management was the addition of Offensive Coordinator (OC) Bill Lazor, who spent last season as the quarterbacks coach for the Eagles and received high accolades for his work with Nick Foles (who had an NFL-high 119.2 passer rating to go along with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 27:2). Departing OC Mike Sherman, who was also Tannehill’s coach at Texas A&M, was much more conservative than Lazor and the move should only be positive news for the potential of Miami’s offense.
Unfortunately for Tannehill, Dolphins’ management has recently vocalized a great deal of trust in backup Matt Moore. Clearly intended to motivate Tannehill, with all of the controversy surrounding the Dolphins over the past few months it is possible that Head Coach Joe Philbin thinks the team could use a more veteran leader. Still, with the investment they made in Tannehill in 2012 (the eighth overall pick in the draft) and clear progress from his freshman year to his sophomore campaign (not to mention the significant difference in talent), it would take a significant regression to see a change at the helm.
Despite the comments from Philbin, Tannehill should see an upswing in value with the addition of Tazor and (expected) subtraction of off-field drama. Being drafted as the QB14 at the top of round 11, he could provide some great value to the growing crowd of those who wait on taking a quarterback.
Matt Moore
Two completed passes for 53 yards and two interceptions on six total pass attempts over the course of a full season doesn’t normally invoke the adoration of a Head Coach, but the recent comments from Philbin indicate Moore may have a shot at more first team reps. The solid NFL backup should be on the fantasy waiver wire unless Tannehill struggles and Philbin follows through with a quarterback change.
Pat Devlin
Devlin hasn’t played a snap in any his first three NFL seasons. He’s got good size and arm strength along with decent accuracy, but struggles under pressure. Squarely behind Tannehill and Moore on the depth chart, he has little dynasty value.
Running Backs
Lamar Miller
After posting a 4.4 40, the fastest of any running back at the 2012 NFL Draft Combine, medical concerns caused Miller to slip into the fourth round of the 2012 NFL Draft. In limited action, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a rookie in 2012 and showed good hands and explosiveness out of the backfield. Though he stayed healthy and started 15 games, a regression in production to 4.0 yards per carry was concerning as Miller totaled only 709 yards rushing and two touchdowns along with 26 receptions for 170 yards receiving.
Although the Dolphins have expressed Miller is entering 2014 as the lead running back, shortly thereafter Daniel Thomas’ name is mentioned as well, along with the fact the two backs complement each other. Miller owners do not want to hear he is not the clear lead back over a player widely considered a bust and new management will likely be looking at additional options via the draft and free agency. He is currently being drafted at 84.5, right at the turn of rounds seven and eight in 12-team leagues, as the 28th running back. There is upside potential as a RB3/flex, but in a startup I’d prefer Knowshon Moreno (ADP 92), rookie Devonta Freeman (104), or Bernard Pierce (112.7).
Daniel Thomas
After three years of remarkably consistent mediocrity, we know what we’re getting from Thomas. Though he was healthy for 15 games, he only managed 109 carries, 3.6 yards per carry, a reception per game and a touchdown every four games equals bench warming in a deep league or waiver wire fodder in a standard format.
Mike Gillislee
Having played his college football at Florida, the local running back was selected in the fifth round in the 2013 NFL Draft ahead of the likes of Latavius Murray and Andre Ellington. Gillislee’s landing spot made him a popular sleeper heading into the season. However, inconsistency and indecisiveness prevented him from taking advantage of a potentially golden opportunity for carries.
Despite the relative lack of obstacles ahead of him on the Dolphins’ running back depth chart, Gillislee only managed 21 yards on six rushing attempts against the Jets on December 1 and didn’t get any opportunities thereafter. He wasn’t even active in the final two games of the season. Expect new management to take a long look at what they have in Gillislee, but he’s not worth rostering except as a last-round flier or in very deep leagues.
Marcus Thigpen
Undrafted out of Indiana in 2009, Thigpen landed with Miami after stops in Philadelphia and Denver. While his playing time increased due to an injury to Thomas near the end of the 2013 season, particularly on third down, he’s primarily a kick returner and should not be drafted.
Wide Receivers
Mike Wallace
To nobody’s surprise, Wallace has been vocal in his discontent with his role in the Miami offense. His connection with Tannehill was very inconsistent in his first year with the team, only converting one of every six passes over 20 yards downfield. Overall he caught 73 passes (on 141 targets for just over a 50% rate) for 930 yards and five touchdowns, which was actually an improvement over the previous season in the first two categories (up from 64 and 836), while his touchdowns took a hit (down from eight). While his receptions were all over the board at the beginning of the season, production began to level off as the season went on.
After being drafted #64 on average in 2013, his value has only dipped slightly in startups as he’s being drafted at #68 in DLF’s February mock drafts as a low-WR3. As a dynasty asset, following a “disappointing” year with Tannehill in which he set a career high in receptions, the soon-to-be 28-year old is primed for an uptick in production. Stabilizing the offensive line and the running back position, undoubtedly two of the top offseason goals for new management, will only help Wallace’s outlook. After ending at #27 among wide receivers in production in 2013 with the likelihood of improvement, he could prove to be a draft-day value for owners looking for WR2 production in the sixth round or a relatively cheap trade target.
Brian Hartline
After signing a lucrative five-year deal last offseason, Hartline continued his relatively quiet, but consistent production from 2012. His reception and yardage totals were nearly identical while he finally raised his touchdown total to four and Hartline actually outperformed the higher-profile Wallace as he was #24 in scoring among wide receivers with 12.6 points per game. Though he ended his season with a knee injury, Hartline is expected to be ready for the 2014 season.
After finishing as the #27 wide receiver in 2012 and #24 wide receiver in 2013, Hartline has emerged as a legitimate fantasy wideout. Turning 28 in November, the five-year veteran has clearly built a rapport with a talented young quarterback who is getting more comfortable each year. As Hartline continues to fly under everyone’s radar (except that of DLF’s Eric Hardter), which is reflected in his draft spot of #166 (late 14th round) in February mocks as the 71st receiver, consider him a bargain WR3.
Rishard Matthews
Building on his rookie campaign, Matthews played in all 16 games as the third receiver and totaled 41 receptions for 448 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His season was the definition of inconsistency as he totaled 21.7 fantasy points in his first eight games then erupted for 120 yards on 11 receptions with two touchdowns in week nine, a game that accounted for nearly 40% of his total production on the season. After Hartline went down with an injury it was Matthews who received the biggest increase in snaps. The seventh round pick out of Nevada in 2012 isn’t more than the fourth receiving option on the Dolphins, but could be worth a stash in deep leagues given his flashes when given the opportunity.
Marlon Moore
Following a half-season stint in very limited action with the San Francisco 49ers, Moore rejoined his team of the previous three seasons and caught six passes for 56 yards in eight games. Primarily used on special teams, Moore hasn’t emerged in the offensive game plan despite opportunity and isn’t worth a roster spot.
Tight Ends
Charles Clay
In Green Bay, Joe Philbin used to line up Jermichael Finley outside to create mismatches and he used the deceptively speedy and versatile Clay in a similar role. After totaling 34 receptions in his first two seasons, in which he was actually listed as a fullback, Clay had 20 receptions in the month of September and emerged quickly as one of Tannehill’s top targets. At 6’3 and 235 pounds, he is surprisingly quick and able to create mismatches against defenders wherever he lines up.
Dynasty owners aren’t buying Clay as a TE1 even though he was eighth in scoring at the position in 2013. Drafters in February mocks did not select him until round twelve as the #17 tight end off the board, after three rookies and two players from Indianapolis. Having found a role in his third year in the NFL, Clay should be a productive low-TE1/high-TE2 for several years at a relatively low price (for now). Despite the breakout season, he’s a buy-low candidate.
Dion Sims
Although Sims had a very solid season as a rookie, he didn’t help many fantasy teams given his primary skill is blocking as he totaled only six receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown. He should be a solid NFL player for years to come, but his fantasy impact will be minimal. Look elsewhere for tight ends with upside.
Michael Egnew
After being inactive much of the season and catching zero passes in 2012, Egnew showed very occasional signs of life with seven receptions for 69 yards after playing in all 16 games. Though no exactly impressive, it’s miles ahead of where he was projected to be after a forgettable first year filled with inactive designations and questions about his work ethic.
Unfortunately for Egnew, Clay emerged as the top tight end in Miami with high ratings (if not big statistics) for the rookie Sims. Expect Egnew to be on the roster bubble and keep him on waiver wires.
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